Rosstat: Industry is pessimistic
According to Rosstat, by the end of the first quarter of 2025, industrial enterprises are pessimistic. The entrepreneurial confidence index in the mining area decreased by 0.9 p., To minus 2.4%, falling from the end of 2024. In the manufacturing industry, the index reduced positions to 2.8% – in January and February it kept at the level of 3.5%.
In the extraction of the negative dynamics of the index, it is explained by the prospects of release in the coming months – only 3.2% of the surveyed against 7.5% in February have positively estimate them, and the process accompanies the growth of finished products in warehouses (the share of this increased by 1.3% after a decrease by 1.2% a month earlier). The decline in the index slowed down a change in the assessment of demand for products in March – from minus 13.3% to minus 9.2%. In processing, on the contrary, demand assessments are deteriorated (from minus 14.1% to minus 18.7%) – with improving release estimates (from 24.1% to 26.6%) and stable reserves. The level of use of production capacities decreased both in production and processing by 1 p., Up to 60%, while employees are still not enough for the implementation of production tasks (assessment of personnel with personnel-minus 21.9% in prey and minus 18% in processing).
The business climate indicator in processing decreased by 6 p., To 108.3%, due to the reduction in demand, release and worsening prospects-the indicator correlates with the level of entrepreneurial confidence. In the extraction, the indicator increased sharply – by 14.2 p., To comparable 108.1%. The results were influenced by political factors: the search for the United States of resolving the conflict in Ukraine and the calculation for the abolition of part of the sanctions. At the same time, the share of respondents who evaluate the economic situation as favorable (from 1.7% to 3.5%) increased in the extraction, in processing, where the share of the military -industrial complex is great, it has decreased (from 9.2% to 6.8%).
It should be noted that in the resume of the Discussion of the Board of Directors of the Central Bank published yesterday, the decision on the rate at the rate at the rate of 21% with a moderately tough signal is explained by the unreliable support for the current news conjuncture – and, despite the disinflation trends (strengthening the ruble, cooling of credit activity, the alleged reduction in the release of the release, improving the geopolitical situation), promises to “proceed from the most conservative most conservative situation Script, including external conditions. ”
