Rosstat increased the rating of GDP growth for 2024 to 4.3%
The second GDP assessment for 2024 allowed Rosstat to increase the estimate of its annual growth to 4.3% from 4.1% (the volume of gross added construction costs and tax data on products) and update the quarterly data. In the first quarter, the indicator increased in annual terms by 5.4% (the estimate has not changed), in the second – by 4.3% (increased from 4.1%), in the third – by 3.3% (3.1%), and in the fourth – the first estimate of the economic growth was 4.5%.
The current economic growth rates have significantly accelerated, the release of the release (relative to the trend of 1.4%) has expanded-primarily due to processing-and internal demand remained strong, concluded analysts of the “hard numbers” Telegram channel, evaluating the data of the Federal State Statistics Service (see schedule). According to this assessment, the current pace of GDP in the fourth quarter exceeded 5% with a seasonal and calendar factors in terms of a year against 3-4% in the third quarter of 2024. From the point of view of the use of GDP, it is noticeable that by the end of the year, consumption gradually reduced the contribution to economic growth, pure export retained a slight positive contribution, and investments (accumulation of capital) became the main driver.
“Despite the increasing number of signals about the possible occurrence of a recession, affordable economic statistics do not yet allow us to conclude about the termination of economic growth. The data for February are significantly distorted by the calendar factor, when eliminating which the annual growth rates of key macroeconomic indicators remain at the January level, ”the analytics of the Economics of the Institute of National Economic Forecasting (Inp) of the Russian Academy of Sciences in the note on short -term GDP dynamics in early 2025 are characterized. In the first quarter, industry heterogeneity intensified: rapid growth in the same sectors, supported by budget impulse (9.8% year in construction, 27.1% in the production of finished metal products, 35% in the production of other vehicles and equipment for January -February), was accompanied by a reduction in economic activity in others (by 3.5% in prey benefits of beneficial benefits. fossils, 2% in wholesale trade in January -February), the growth of investment and consumer demand slowed down. In the beginning of April, the calculations of the Inp, in February 2025, the second reduction in the GDP month by the month with the eliminated seasonality (by 0.1% of the month after 1.2% in January 2025) is shown, which may be a sign of a development trend of GDP growth since June 2022. Meanwhile, there are signs of the formation of delayed demand due to the expectations of mitigation of monetary policy and a possible resumption of import products imports, and they enter into an Inp RAS.
