RF in May 2025 increased export of energy coal to China
China – the largest importer of Russian energy coal – increased purchases in May to a record indicator from the beginning of 2024. The increase in supplies is explained by the arid in the spring, the reduction in its own production and the beginning of the trend to reduce port stocks. But the Chinese government is interested in supporting the internal manufacturer, which threatens to restriction of imports. In such a situation, South Korea can become an interesting market.
In May 2025, the Russian Federation increased the export of energy coal to China to 4.58 million tons, which has become a record monthly value since the beginning of 2024, follows the KPLER data available to Kommersant. Regarding April, the indicator grew by about 1.8 times, a year by a year – by 7.2%.
The supply of energy coal to India increased by 19% a month by a month and twice a year by a year, to 1.36 million tons. In annual terms, export to Turkey and South Korea also increased by 10%, to 1.72 million tons and 2.1 times, to 742.75 thousand tons, respectively. But regarding April, supplies to these countries were reduced. Multiple growth showed May shipments of energy coal to Poland and the Philippines, up to 104 thousand tons and up to 20 thousand tons, respectively. In April, Poland imported 10.95 thousand tons, in May 2024 – 2.47 thousand tons. There were no supplies to the Philippines in April and May last year, follows from KPLER data.
The interlocutor of Kommersant in the coal industry says that in China, coal purchases for power plants have grown. According to him, April and May in the country were very arid – China’s hydroelectric power station “Three Gorges” worked 30% lower than last year. In addition, the extraction of energy coals in the PRC decreased by 2% of the year in April and continued to decline in May due to losses: prices are not rising, the Kommersant source indicates. According to the Center for price indices (CCI), imported coal of calorie content of 5500 kcal, taking into account the cost of delivery (CFR) in China costs about $ 70 (504 yuan) per ton. Prices for local coal of similar quality in the northern ports of the PRC are kept at 620 yuan per ton. The interlocutor “Kommersant” adds that in the PRC for three weeks in a row, coal reserves in the ports have been reduced.
The Director of the CCC Evgeny Grachev says that Russian coal is interesting to importers, as it costs less than that of manufacturers in the domestic market of the PRC. Moreover, not all Chinese companies can further reduce prices due to a higher cost, he points out. However, the expert warns, the same situation creates the risks of further export supplies to the PRC. “Local energy companies are becoming less interested in the purchases of Chinese coal on long -term contracts and more in purchases at lower prices in the spot market. Increasingly, an opinion on the possible introduction of control over the volume of imports from the outside sounds on the market, ”says Mr. Grachev.
Neft Research believes that South Korea will be a promising area of coal export from the Russian Federation in the near future. High calorie coal prices in this country continued to increase due to the high demand of utilities and a series of new tenders, and fears about the sanctions against Russian coal have apparently weakened, analysts indicate. So, noted in NEFT Research, energy companies of the Kospo TPP and GS Donghae Electric recently concluded transactions for its supply of $ 90–93, taking into account the cost of insurance, freight and transportation.
India remained the main area of export of coal coal from the Russian Federation in May. Exports to the country grew 1.5 times by April and 1.7 times a year by the year, to 2.27 million tons. Deliveries to China decreased by 4.4% in a monthly comparison and by 25.7% in annual, to 783.9 thousand tons. Export to Japan increased by almost 25% of April and 10.65% year by the year, up to 98.62 thousand tons. From zero indicators in April to 98.66 thousand tons, deliveries to Malaysia increased, which is 10.65% more than a year earlier.
Boris Krasnozhenov, Head of the Analysting Department for the Securities Market of Securities, says that the demand for coking coal in India is associated with an increase in steel smelting, and Japan was historically one of the main consumers of Russian metallurgical coal due to a short transport shoulder. Maria Kolomiyan, Director for Corporate Ratings of the RA, adds that the growth of coal supplies to India could also help relieve tension between India and Pakistan, which caused concerns about supply and trade as a whole on the western coast of India. In addition, prices for Russian coking coal are more interesting to buyers from India and Japan than coal from Australia and Indonesia, said Ilya Makarov, director of the corporate ratings of Akra.
