Restoration to the level of 2024 already in 2026
The market for new cars can return to the sales level of a fairly successful last year already in 2026, the “trust technology” (Tedo, previously the Russian division of PWC) predict. Mostly hopes are assigned to mitigate monetary policy and deferred demand. At the same time, last year’s market indicators are almost half as long as the results of a ten -year ago, when sales came close to 3 million cars. In the near future, it will be difficult to get to last peaks, but to 2 million pieces by 2030 – it is quite possible to reach, analysts say.
Sales of new cars in the Russian Federation will recover to the level of 2024, which showed good dynamics against the background of a shortage of previous periods, already in 2026. This follows from the basic forecast of the audit-consulting company « Technologies of trust » (Tedo). In a pessimistic situation, analysts expect, the market will reach such indicators no earlier than 2028.
In Tedo, the car market of 2024 is evaluated similarly to Avtostat: 1.57 million new cars. In 2025, according to the calculations of the consulting company, sales in the base script will be reduced by 7%, to 1.46 million pieces, with stabilizing – by 2%, to 1.54 million pieces, with pessimistic – by 19%, up to 1.27 million pieces. In 2026, the car market is predicted in the amount of 1.57 million, 1.64 million and 1.36 million cars, respectively.
The basic scenario of Tedo involves an increase in population incomes, moderate rise in price of cars, selling residues and increasing the cost of ownership of the machine.
With stabilizing, a decrease in the key rate, expansion of the assortment, the emergence of new players and deepening the localization of current ones are added. The pessimistic scenario is accompanied by weakening of the ruble, preserving the key rate, reducing the offer and the accumulation of drains.
The CEO of Avtopecsentr Group of Companies Andrei Terlukevich agrees that in 2026 the market is able to approach the numbers of 2024, but the main condition is a key rate at the level of 17–18%. “With such a rate, even with the current exchange rate, the demand for cars can grow significantly,” he said. The deputy general director for sales of new cars Avilon Renat Paepteev echoes that sales at the level of 1.6 million cars are reacted, provided that the credit mechanisms are revived and the turn of interest in leasing. “The rate in this case should vary in the range of 12-14%, as it was in 2023,” he said. Director of the Sales Department of Gazprombank Autolyting Nikolai Fomin is also waiting for recovery to the levels of 2024 in 2026 with a favorable development of events.
According to the director of the Department of New Cars of Rolf, Nikolai Ivanov, the restoration of the car market up to 1.6 million cars is unlikely to be previously possible earlier than 2027.
In 2026, according to the calculations of the top manager, the market will probably reach 1.4 million. Among the factors that will determine the demand in the automotive market, in addition to the rate of the Central Bank, the exchange rate and the general condition of the economy, Mr. Ivanov notes geopolitics. “Buying a car is a very emotional event, and it’s easier for people to go for it when the common background is positive and optimistic. In moments of turbulence, such large expenses, as a rule, are postponed, ”he believes. Upon preservation of current economic factors, says Evgeny Zhitnykhin, the commercial director of the Fresh automotive market, the 2026 market will be at the current level. However, the top manager does not exclude sales recovery up to 1.6 million pieces. This can also be facilitated by the localization of the production of Chinese cars, which will give more chances to consumers to receive different benefits from the state that stimulate sales growth, he argues.
The cars of the Chinese brands are not yet included in the top 10 marks in the Russian fleet. According to Tedo’s study, the leaders have not changed since 2022: Lada, Toyota, Hyundai, Kia, Nissan, Renault, Volkswagen, Chevrolet, Ford and Mitsubishi. Although Maxim Kadakov, editor-in-chief of the magazine behind the wheel, predicts that the brands from the PRC will appear on this list in the next two to three years and the first among them will probably become Cher.
Mr. Kadakov says that the good results of 2024, comparable to the indicators of 2019–2021, were achieved to a certain extent by unexpected factors: the growth of the rate and changes in the rules for the import of cars. But, he indicates, last year’s indicators are much worse than 2014, when sales sought to 2.9 million. According to the expert of the Ayler company Vladimir Bespalov, the market of new machines is unlikely to reach last peaks in the near future, but a bar of 2 million units can be taken by 2030.
