Replacement on a far -right flank: what is known about the new favorite for the post of President of Romania

Romanian Constitutional Court is finally abolished the possibility of a far -right candidate Celin Georgescu in the presidential election.

There is no legal opportunity to cancel this decision, so the question arises who will replace Georgezka on the far right flank.

There is no intrigue here – the Alliance leader for combining Romanians (Aur) George Simion has repeatedly spoken of a willingness to pick up a flag of Georgescu, and it is now that he will try on his electorate, to become a new President of Romania.

And it has a considerable chance of this, especially given the impossibility of politicians of the pro -Western camp to unite.

And this is an extremely unpleasant news for Ukraine, because Simion is no less a Ukrainophobe than the removed from the races of Georgescu.

Less scandalous, no less dangerous

It is not excluded that many in Romania and beyond this candidacy will seem more acceptable compared to Georgez.

Simion is less radical in his statements, in the European Parliament, his party is a moderately European ECR faction – European Conservatives and Reformists (recall that it is headed by the former Prime Minister of Poland Mateusz Moravtsky in « Law and Justice »), but in addition to Russia.

However, the situation is in fact more complicated, and Simion's figure is no more acceptable than the figure of Georges. To prove this, it is necessary to track the connections between the Romanian extreme right and biography of Simion a little more detail.

George Simion was known in Romania thanks to public activity. He headed the Action 2012 movement, a public initiative for the unification of Romania and the Republic of Moldova – the idea of ​​its time is popular with Romanian nationalists, but low -realistic in the short term.

The public initiative failed to unite the lands of the former Kingdom, but instead, the supporters of right ideas were united around him and in 2019 the initiative turned into a party, which in 2020 unexpectedly entered the Parliament for many.

And at the end of last year – she received 18% of the vote in the parliamentary elections, twice the previous result.

Not the last role in this association played speculation on ethnic contradictions.

However, in 2019 it was primarily contradictions with the Hungarians.

At the same time, during a number of interethnic incidents, AUR cooperated with another extreme right initiative – Noua Dreapta. Its supporters also promoted the idea of ​​uniting Romanian lands since the 2000s, and in addition demonstrated a commitment to the ideas of the Legionnaires of the Iron Guard-a far-right organization, which functioned in Romania in the interwar period and was organized by the Jewish pogroms in 1940.

Simion's political paths intersected not only from Noua Dreapta, but also with Celine Georges. Moreover, in quite unexpected configurations.

For example, Romanian investigators found information that at about the same time as Simion cooperated with Noua Dreapta, children Georgezka attended summer camps with a « legionar » bias organized by one of Noua Dreapta heads Euzen.

The interest of such cooperation is that the fate of AUR representatives intersect.

Let's say another noua dreapta leaders Tudor Ionescu is now a member of Parliament. However, he went there not on the List of AUR, but on the list of SOS scandalous Diana Shohoake.

But let's not forget that Shosoake herself first went to Parliament as a representative of AUR in 2020 and only eventually broke into a separate political force.

However, the most important connection-in 2020, Aur put out Celina Georgescu in Romanian Prime Minister.

And this invitation increases the likelihood that The motivated electorate of Georgescu On the election day, it will not stay at home, but will go to the site and support the closest to their leader politicians. That is – Simion.

Person Non Grate

It is also dangerous for Ukraine that in recent years, AUR has begun to speculate on the Ukrainian issue.

The party was opponent of the idea of ​​giving Ukraine weapons and was categorically opposed to the transfer of Romanian Patriot air defense systems.

The same AUR opposed the transit of Ukrainian farmers through Romania and even tried to organize protests at the border.

In addition, another supporter of « legionaric ideas », and in combination, one of the heads of Aur Claudio Tirziu was about the need to attach Ukrainian territories that once belonged to Romania. Like, without such an association, Romania will not happen as a state.

In the end, they also talk about Russian influences in the party.

In particular, in 2023, former Defense Minister of the Republic of Moldova Anatol Shalar said that Simion had contact with representatives of Russian special services during a trip to Chernivtsi in 2011.

It seems that Ukrainian intelligence services also share the following assumptions, because on November 15, 2024, the leader of Aur George Simion was forbidden to enter Ukraine for systemic anti -Ukrainian activity.

In other words, we receive a less frankly pro -Russian candidate, but with anti -Ukrainian views, to replace the frankly pro -Russian candidate with anti -Ukrainian views.

The chances of winning

Finally, a little about Simion's chances in the presidential election.

The removal of Georgescu actually guarantees it in the second round. It is likely – from the first month.

The latest sociological survey conducted in early March Sociopol gave Simion 10%, subject to Georgesque participation and 28% – subject to withdrawing the latter from the race.

Even this result makes the leader Aur with a favorite of the race. However, without a separation that had a Georghescu whose rating exceeded 40%.

And in addition – this electorate still needs to be convinced at the station and support another candidate. This is probably the key task for Simion's election campaign.

Moreover, it may not be the only one who tries to drag the Giorscu electorate. In particular, the intentions to go to the president were announced by the anamari Gavrile, the leader of another right -off Pot Party. However, now two far -right policies are declaring the readiness of cooperation, but it is unknown how genuine their words are.

The application for elections may also be submitted by the already mentioned SOS leader Diana Shohoake. However, last year she was removed from the presidential election, and accordingly – she should refuse this time. Will the Romanian CEC decide that one is enough for a candidate?

Another nuance that may depend on the final victory – who will become the opponent of Simion in the second round. And whether the pro -Western forces will act together, rejecting the enmity.

And there are already considerable problems with that. In particular, it seems that the idea that the camp of pro -European forces will support the only candidate from the power coalition Krin Antonescu is finally buried.

Instead, the Anthonescu (now only 18% of voters are now ready to vote for him), and Bukharest Mayor Nikusor Dan (19%), as well as Expremier Victor Ponta, will compete for participating in the second round of the pro -Western forces. In the latter, 22% of voters are ready to know, which makes Pontus the most likely opponent of Simion in the second round.

Another presidential candidate is the head of the Romanian Salvation Union Elena Leason.

The latter, we will remind, sensations in the second round of canceled last year's presidential elections and due to minor personal anti -rating had good prospects to win in the second round.

However, now only 12% of voters are ready to cast for her – and there is almost no chance of repeating the sensation.

And this is a clear plus for the far -right Simion.

Former chairman Ponta, known to Romanians by corruption scandals, a false diploma of higher education and plagiarism in the dissertation, looks much more convenient for him in the second round than new politicians, such as gentlemen.

And the main problem of today's Romania is that the country is in the period of unprecedented turbulence, and while the Democrats are traditionally banged, electoral scores – to the joy of Russia – they get « legionaries ».

Authors:

Sergey Gerasimchuk, expert of the Foreign Policy Council « Ukrainian Prism »,

Yuri Panchenko, Educational Editor of « European Truth »