Referendum 2025, the results: turnout at 30%, the yes exceed 12.3 million just. The map of the (non) vote: Ztl Pro citizenship, more women at the polling stations
The center -left does not exceed the goal that had been given and on citizens the data stops at 9 million voters. More voters in the Ztl and in the « strong » areas of the Democratic Party, less in those of the 5 stars
In spite of all that flourishing of formulas and distinctions that animated the pre -vote debate – « I two yes and three no », « I take only two cards, thanks … » – The turnout was practically the same for all questions. As well as far away from the quorum: al 30.6% (given Italy, is lower with the vote of Italians abroad, at 29.9). And, with the significant exception of the card on citizenship, The results are also homogeneous, with yes over 87%.
14.1 million voters went to the vote. They are not enough to hit the goal of the quorum. But it was another The bar placed by the leaders of the center -leftreiterated in unison in yesterday’s statements: exceed 12.3 million votes that in 2022, in the political elections, they sent Giorgia Meloni at Palazzo Chigi (The data concerns the national territory and with this, therefore, the comparison is made here: it would rise to 12.6 with abroad). Comfortable lobster, on the other hand, were the same promoting parties to fix it. But in the end, at least that, Was it overcome?
The threshold touched
« The final data risks not giving satisfaction even to this threshold », note Lorenzo Pregliascodirector of Youtrend. Take the questions at work, where PD, M5S and AVS were compact for the yes. Here they stopped at 12.250 million, considering the question that collected most, on layoffs (Italy data), also considering the vote of Italians abroad we are just above 13 million. That is, they touched those famous 12.3, There was no net overtaking. Only, in fact, considering the foreign seats it exceeds, slightly, the Meloni the Meloni in 2022. «And sula citizenship we are very far away». The number of those who responded to the proposal to halve the times for the request – supported by PD, AVS, Action, IV and +Europe – stops around 9 million.
Evidently something did not work: «On the one hand there was one politicalization of the questions, Beyond the merit, and this has removed a part that is not a militant. Pushing on the identity pedal, on the other hand, was not enough to mobilize the electorate of the opposition in force, « comments Pregliasco.
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Pd vs 5 stars
Tuscany and Emilia-RomagnaRoccaforti dem, are The two regions where the turnout is greater (respectively 39.1 and 38.1). In the south, In historical basins of the 5 stars, percentages are recorded below the national average (23.1 in Sicily, 27.7 in Sardinia, a little better in Campania, 29.9). It is one of the first data discussed in the post-voto debate: a signal that must worry the 5 Star Movement? « A lower participation was awaited in the South, it is an already recorded trend and in addition the article 18 and citizenship speak less to that electorate, » premises Pregliasco. But from the analysis of Youtrend A fact emerges: « In the strongholds of the Democratic Party and Avs – that is, in the municipalities where these parties in 2022 and in the last European ones they collected better results than their national average – the turnout was above 36%. In the 5 -star strongholds lower than 28%».
Ztl and suburbs
There is another data, of the distribution of the vote in the cities. « In historic centers of the big cities The yes to citizenship they were higher: 80% in the district Milan 1 (against 74% of the city average and above the national result) e In Turin 1 it exceeds 81%a result 5 points higher than layoffs. Here they joined the citizens more than to work: from San Salvario to Mirafiori, in popular areas, however, the most voted were the questions about contracts. « Situation, that of the Ztl, which, as often happens, is not representative of the country’s trends ».
The big cities
The big cities are mainly drawn. For Salvatore Vassalloprofessor of political science and director of the Cattaneo Institute, one of the most evident data « is The difference between large and small towns»:« In the city above 350 thousand inhabitants they were registered, on average, 7 points turnout percentages more the average of all the municipalities. The difference rises to 10 points if the comparison is made with the centers below 15 thousand inhabitants. This gap had never recorded», Comments the polytologist. And not only « because in large centers the voters of the wide field voted above all, and among these above all the voters of the Democratic Party », think of Florence at 46.9 and Bologna at 47.7 (but then there are also Turin, 41.4%, Genoa, 40.4, Milan, 36.8, and Rome, 36.2). « Perhaps – he continues – there is something else, the citizens closest to the » structured networks « of the union, of the parties have been mobilized ».
On the turnout, however, Vassallo does not speak of collapse: « If we compare it with the post -1999 referendums – a key year that has certified that a share of strategic abstention is enough to block a consultation – we are substantially in line ».
Center -right at the seats
But be careful to read these data with an excessively « parliamentarian » essay, where yes are the opposition and the abstentions the majority. « In reality everything is more nuanced than that, » he explains Antonio Notowho directs well -known surveys. The detections on the vote showed «that A fifth of the center -right electorate went to votewhile a third of the center -left electorate did not go to the polls. Even a part of the electorate of the Democratic Party did not go ».
The North difference against South is marked. « Yes, the North voted more, but beyond Veneto, we find among the regions where the turnout is greater Piedmont and Liguria, governed by the center -right ». According to known, to have influenced the final result, it may have played a « down effect » for the last few hours: « The Monday figureof those who voted from 7 to 15, it is minor in comparison with the data of the previous Monday. Probably The result of Sunday evening discouraged many to go to the polling station».
It is to be recorded that For the first time, The turnout was greater among women than men (with the only exception of Taranto, Youtrend note). Just a year ago in 91 provinces to participate more were men.
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