Reasons for rising prices for precious metall
The tough confrontation of US President Donald Trump with the largest trading partner of the country of China pushed the quotes of gold to the new historical maximum – above the level of $ 3200 for Troika ounce. For three days, noble metal added almost 9%in price, which became the strongest increase with the 2020 pandemium. World investors are primarily concerned about the consequences of the conflict for the US economy, which leads to a decrease in interest on dollar assets and a renewal of investment in gold.
On April 11, the price of gold in a spot market for the first time in history overcame the level of $ 3200 per troika ounce. According to Investing.com, the quotes of precious metal reached $ 3244 per ounce, which is 1.7% higher than the closure values of the previous day. A new wave of “bull” game began on Wednesday, April 11, and in three days the quotes increased by 8.7%. At the same time, since the beginning of 2025, the gold has risen by more than 23%, and over two years the quotation growth amounted to almost 60%.
At a faster pace, gold prices at a three -day interval grew at the end of March 2020 (by 10.3%), when, against the backdrop of the rapid spread of the coronavirus of the government of many countries, Locks were introduced (see “Kommersant” dated March 26, 2020). During this period, investors, on fears of the recession of the world economy, sold risky assets and went into protective assets, including gold.
The current flight to yellow metal is also caused by the fears of investors for the fate of the world economy, however, the main stimulus is the politician pursued by Donald Trump.
Although this week the President of the United States announced a pause in the action of tariffs for most countries, but he went to further escalation with China. So far, in the Tariff War, the “advantage” on the side of Washington: tariffs of 145% in relation to Chinese goods against 125% regarding American goods by Beijing. But, as the senior analyst Sbercib Investment Research Anna Pilgunova notes, investors are already laid down “in pricesOThe most likelihood of a recession in the United States due to tariffs, as well as a slowdown in the growth rate of the global economy. ”
In such conditions, investors lose interest in dollar assets. So, the DXY index (the dollar rate relative to six leading world currencies) lost almost 4% in a week, dropping to 99 points, a minimum since April 2022. The yield of ten -year -old US Treasury bonds took off to 4.5% per annum, adding 60 b per week. p.
This is the strongest weekly growth since October 2008, that is, since the global financial crisis. “Although, according to the latest data, inflation in the United States slows down, this factor no longer worries anyone. The market is trying not only to predict the following steps of the “Orange Swan”, but also makes active reprising everything. Now the main driver is not CPI, but the global loss of faith in the dollar as a stability tool, ”said Astero Falcon Astero Falcon.
In such conditions, investors traditionally increase investments in gold. According to the Bloomberg agency, by the end of the week the assets of exchange funds (ETF) investing in precious metal exceeded 2.756 thousand tons, upgrading a maximum of September 2023. Since the beginning of the year, fund assets have grown by more than 153 tons. According to Kommersant, based on the Bank of America reports (taking into account Emerging Portfolio Fund Research), since the beginning of 2025, the volume of net investment in gold funds has exceeded $ 24 billion, and over the past month – $ 13.4 billion.
Under the current conditions, gold quotes have a chance in the coming days to reach $ 3300 per ounce, the market participants say.
“In the most optimistic version, we admit the possibility of reaching $ 3700 per ounce, but we do not believe that this will be carried out in the coming months or quarters,” said the FG analyst at the Finams Nikolai Dudchenko. The main issue in this game to increase is the confrontation of the United States and China. Mrs. Nikolaeva does not exclude short -term correction in the gold market (up to $ 3080 per ounce), if the countries temporarily agree.
Active purchase of precious metal continues from the central banks. According to the results of the first quarter of 2025, the People’s Bank of China acquired 160 tons of gold, and the financial regulators of Turkey, India, Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan are actively acquiring it. Due to the fact that the dollar has become a political risk. Currently, the gold is “actually the only liquid alternative outside American jurisdiction, and for central banks this is not speculation, this is a strategic decision,” summed up Alena Nikolaeva.
