Reality Show with Ultimatums at the White House

On Tuesday, April 8, President Donald Trump said that, at the end of the week, there will be a « great meeting » between the United States and Iran – direct nuclear negotiations between Washington and Tehran. The announcement is surprising, because the US has undergone the regime of the Ayatollahs of an ultimatum, and the supreme leader, Ali Khamena, said Iran will not negotiate under the conditions imposed by the United States.

The ultimatum sent by Trump, in a letter from the beginning of March, remained confidential, but the details could be found in a presidential memorandum for national security signed by Trump in February, shortly after taking over the mandate. In short, the United States establishes the national security objective not only the elimination of Iranian nuclear and ballistic programs, but also the deprivation of Iran of conventional capabilities with which it can give an asymmetric response. The deadline set by Trump is two months – the beginning of May. The Tehran received 60 days to negotiate an agreement starting from much more unfavorable terms than those in which it negotiated the nuclear agreement in 2014 (of which Trump withdrew the United States during his first term at the Alba House). However, the negotiation of the 2015 agreement lasted almost two years. If Iran did not accept US requests, « there will be bombing as they have not seen before, » said US president. And a second American aircraft carrier was sent to the base of Diego Garcia, where Iranian capabilities cannot hit.

Colonel Douglas McGregor resembled the ultimatum sent by Trump Ayatollah to the ultimatum of July 1914 sent by Austro-Hungary Serbia-an ultimatum that cannot be really accepted and is meant to lead to a war. Under these conditions, announcing the first meeting for negotiations between the US and Iran is surprising.

Not only Iran is under the pressure of an ultimatum of the US administration. Recently, Donald Trump said that Russian President Putin is also subjected to an ultimatum – a « psychological » ultimatum, says the American leader. The statement comes after Trump had a harsh exit to Russia, accusing Moscow of emphasizing the legitimacy of Ukrainian President Zelenski as a negotiation partner and signing a possible peace agreement. Or, the same Donald Trump was accused, a month ago, Zelenski of being « a dictator without elections », suggesting that in Ukraine, presidential elections should be organized – a request for Putin’s Russia. Returning to the « ultimatum » sent to Russia, Donald Trump is unhappy that the Russian part is drawing time in Ukraine negotiations. « If I feel like I’m taking time, I will not be happy at all, » Trump said, adding that he has imposed a « psychological deadline. » Trump has also warned that he will impose secondary rates of up to 50% for companies doing business in America and importing oil from Russia.

« Trump threatens Russia as in a reality show, » writes Alastair Crooke, a former official in British espionage and counselor of the head of EU diplomacy. « It needs the US audience to believe that it brings » peace by force « , to maintain its image of alpha male, even though the lack of pressure levers on Putin becomes more and more obvious to the American public. »

The process for a cessation of fire in Ukraine is blocked not only because of Russian intransigence, but also because Trump’s team has decided that an agreement on Ukraine should be obtained first by cessation of fire, not by choices in Ukraine and approaching the deep causes of the conflict, writes Crooke.

We also have a reality TV in the case of Iran, threatened by Trump with « bombing as they have never seen », given that the latest report of the American Intelligence Community, presented to Congress, shows that Iran does not build a nuclear weapon. This report is overlooked. Not the US, but Israel sees in Iran an existential threat that must be eliminated.

« It seems that behind the ultimatums addressed to Iran and Russia there is a » nervous « trump president because of the inability to immediately put an end to the Ukraine war. And there was also an Israel and an Netanyahu premier who puts pressure to compress the time and end the Iran regime (which is said to be more and more. « Normalize » the relationship with Lebanon and even Syria and the whole Middle East, « writes Crooke.

The US needs all these dynamics to be able to concentrate on China totally. The Washington Post writes that the Pentagon circulates a secret report that shows that Beijing is the only great threat to America. In order to manage the complicated relationship with China, the Trump administration needs to be able to deal with the threat of Russia alone, while the Middle East should be « pacified » as soon as Israel, with US support.

And, to prove that his ultimatums are not Reality show, President Trump ordered the bombardment of the Hutites in Yemen, praising themselves that they were hit hard and that many leaders had died. Dozens of people were killed in Yemen during the recent bombings by which the US tried to strengthen their ultimatums. « The ruthless attitude towards civilians killed in Yemen contrasts with the empathy shown by Trump for Ukrainians who die on the front, » writes Crooke.

The Tehran regime finally agreed to open discussions with the US, under the pressure of ultimatum, but it is unlikely that the United States and Israel will get the renunciation of Iran to its main means of discouragement. Behind Iran is Russia and China. The « triangle » of Evgheni Primakov (Russia-India-China), designed during the Elțîn regime to prevent (without success) the transition to a unipolar order, is now transforming into the « triangle » Russia-Hina, where China dependent on energy import can not allow a crisis in Iran and in the area of ​​the Gulf to the explosion of oil.

It remains to be seen the reaction of Russia at Trump’s « psychological » ultimatum. Professor John J. Mearsheimer believes that Donald Trump does not have many options at this time to reach a peace in Ukraine, because he loses his influence on European allies, Ukraine and even important members of his team. According to Mearsheimer, a viable plan of President Trump will be that, in the context of an important advance of Russia in Ukraine in the first half of this year, the US will convey to Ukraine that they will no longer deliver weapons, that there are no more necessary votes for this support, and European allies enter a lot of disputes that allow the United States to split more. In this context, « Trump could tell the Ukrainians: forget, Russia advances on the front, occupies more and more territory, the Congress can no longer vote for new aids, and Europeans will not get your chests with their hand, let’s conclude an agreement. This is the highest hope for Trump: to leave that, to let it go, It will offer her levers to make pressure on Ukraine and Europeans.