Railway transportation of containers this year can grow slightly

The container market this year will grow symbolically or remain at the level of last year. According to the forecasts of the Institute of Economics and Transport Development (IERT), the volume of railway transportation of containers at the end of the year will amount to 8 million TEU against 7.9 million Teu a year earlier. While the indicator is falling, however, part of the market expects to return to growth from the summer, and some do not see such prerequisites, taking into account the non-softening monetary policy. Nevertheless, by 2035, Ier predicts the growth of the container market up to 10–12 million TEU against the background of the growth of containerization of goods and the development of infrastructure.

The railway transportation of containers, which amounted to 7.9 million TEU in 2024, this year about 8 million Teu was reached, the study of the Institute of Economics and the Development of Transport said. According to the expectations of the market participants, it is noted in IERT, by 2035 the volume of container transportation on the network of Russian Railways can increase by one and a half times – up to 10–12 million Teu, the average annual market growth will be about 3.4%. The key factors should be the development of logistics infrastructure through the construction or modernization of terminals, the expansion of the use of containers to transport various nomenclatures of cargo and the development of digital services. According to the deputy chief of the Center for Macroeconomics and the Forecasting Methodology of Irt Roman Martyshkin, about 60% of 10–12 million TEU in 2035 will be in foreign trade operations (export, import and transit), 40% – intra -Russian transportation.

The growth rate of container transportation in the Russian Federation in the medium term will be ahead of world, although, according to the forecast in the study, this year the global market will make a breakthrough and from 183.2 million TEU in 2025 will grow immediately until 195-200 million TEU.

By 2035, it will increase by 20–33%to 240–260 million Teu. The main growth drivers, according to Irt, will be urbanization in Africa and South Asia, the expansion of « green » logistics and the growth of digital trade.

Loading other cargo, including container, one of the few showing growth in the year in 2024, in January -April of this year fell by 5%, to 37.2 million tons. As Kommersant wrote, the dynamics was influenced by the cessation of the supply of Chinese cars, the drains of which are filled, a general decrease in purchasing activity and reduction of investment programs of companies (See “Kommersant” from March 13). On May 22, at the conference “Pro // Movement. Vostok”, Deputy General Director of Russian Railways, Mikhail Glazkov, noted a change in the structure of the carriage flow, “which is most clearly expressed in the transportation of containers”. “For three years, we observed a significant increase in container transportation in the eastern direction and, especially the imports coming from the ports of the East, from the border crossings of the Eastern training ground to the central part of Russia,” he said. “Today we see that the export to the level of last year is growing and the import began to fall.”

The Director General of Transit Alexander Chevelyuk evaluates a decrease in containerized imported transport in the Far East of 20%. “The figure is significantly more depressing than we see in official sources,” he indicates. The commercial director of the Vladivostok Sea Port Elena Kazarina also speaks of a fall of 19–20%. At the same time, she notes, according to the results of four months, the volume of external container trade did not fall, it is at the same level as last year, but the volumes were redistributed from the Far East to the Baltic and the Black Sea basin (ACH). “Once the Far East was the fraction of the second, the Baltic was the first,” she says, “and now we are returning to this situation. Until 2022, it was Baltica who occupied 50% in container turnover. In 2023, the Far East began to occupy 52%. In 2024, the share of the Far East amounted to 45%. And according to the results of four months, we, unfortunately, are already occupying 38%. ” And the Baltic, adds Ms. Kazarin, is growing: now her share is 42%. The proportion of ACHB does not grow and amounts to 27%, but volumes increase.

Elena Kazarina expects that by the fall there will be a rebound in foreign trade goods, the purchasing power will go up. “A certain market growth in the second half of the year will occur, although, of course, there will be no cardinal, explosive growth this year,” said Alexander Kahidze, head of Fininvest, predicting the revival of the market from next year. But not everyone expects positive trends from the second half of the year. “To date, factors that would indicate that in the second half of this year the situation will be changed significantly in a positive way,” says Alexander Chevelyuk. “For this, a mechanism should be launched today that would say that consumption increases, sales increases, demand for increasing the flow of imports.”

The Case Group of Companies told Kommersant that the forecasts of Irt are close to the group forecasts. “By 2035, we expect a market growth to a level of 10–10.5 million Teu, which is 25–33% higher than the level of 2024,” the case says. “For a container market, this is not such a significant increase, over the past 20 years, CAGR (total average annual growth rate) was more than 10%. The forecast for 2025 is about 8 million TEU, with a minimal increase in the level of last year. ” Current pace, explain in the Civil Code, are largely determined by subsidence of imported transportation, the lack of significant growth of transit, restrictions on export at the eastern training ground. In the medium -term perspective, the container market has sufficient potential for growth, according to the Case Civil Code. One of the drivers will continue to remain containerization. “In the tonnage, its level in the total loading on the network of Russian Railways OJSC increased from 2.3% in 2014 to 6.3% in 2024,” the company says. “Potential – about 11% of the freight base of railway transportation.” For its implementation, they note there, a stable tariff policy is needed, an increase in the number of schedule threads for container trains, the development of modern terminals, and improving the quality and depth of planning.

Natalia Skorlygina