Putin seems to bed to freeze the war – on its terms

– I don’t think there will be any major mobilizations anymore.

That’s what Oleg, one of my oldest Russian friends, says when I ask what he is doing in Moscow.

Since Putin announced mobilization in September 2022, he has not set foot in his hometown. Putin admittedly stated that only a limited part of the reserve would be called in. But like every Russian, Oleg knew that it is not possible to rely on one thing the president says.

Now he visited his old favorite bars, met friends, spent time with his mother. (Before he went back to his family in Cyprus.)

– I could actually return earlier, but when I planned it last year, my mother became completely hysterical. She is so scared that I will be called in, he says.

One year later See Oleg’s mother no major danger in the son returning. This is not because she has any inside information about the mobilizations. Without the fact that Russians – especially the older generation who lived in the Soviet Union – have developed emotion for what is in the air.

In 2022, while I was still living in Sankt Petersburg, the city authorities set up a grotesque installation: two enlightened hearts near the Winter Palace with the texts « Sankt Petersburg » and « Mariupol ». One morning someone had written on these hearts: « Killer, you have bombed Mariupol. »

The one who dared to write this was a 17-year-old school student named Darja Kozyreva. She was then a minor and was fined. Last year, she taped up a poem in Ukrainian at Taras Hevevhenko’s statue in Saint Petersburg. (Sevchenko is Ukraine’s National Poet). For this, she has now been punished with prison for 2 years and 8 months.

The verdict is absurd. Yet it is a trend break. Just a year ago, Kozyreva could have had seven or ten years. Since Russia attacked Ukraine in 2022, it was a clear tactic at the Kremlin to react to the smallest protest with draconian punishment. The record was 25 years for opposition leader Vladimir Kara-Murza in 2023.

So now Kozyreva gets a much milder judgment. This does not mean that the Kremlin has changed attitude towards opposition. However, you may not see protests against the war as an equally great threat anymore.

At the same time have Four journalists in Moscow was convicted to five and a half years in prison. They are convicted of « collaborating with extremist organizations » – they have thus worked for the fund for the fight against corruption, which was founded by the later murdered opposition leader Aleksej Navalnyj.

One of these journalists, Antonina Favorskaja, made The last video film with Aleksey Navalnyj Living on February 15, 2024. It was during a trial in Charp, where Favorskaja traveled over 3000 kilometers from Moscow. Thanks to her, you know that Navalnyj was in good shape as late as the day before her death.

In other words, Navalny and his co -workers are still seen as a threat.

Putin is known To always play several games at the same time. First, at least 36 Ukrainian civilians are killed in a robot attack against Sumy on Palm Sunday. Then you announce to the Apaple of Armed for Easter, just to kill nine Ukrainian civilians in the Marhanets following week.

Putin welcomes Trump’s peace proposal, just to pull out on everything until Trump loses interest.

Now the United States threatens to leave the peace process if the parties do not agree to the Americans’ proposals. According to the advance rumor, it is extremely advantageous for Putin.

But Putin may not accept yes. More likely, he does as last, says that the proposal is good, but he also wants A, B and C. Ukraine, of course, no, because the agreement is equated with capitulation.

It fits Putin great. Then, in the following weeks, he can continue to process Ukraine with air attacks, create a maximum favorable situation in the field and then see how Trump reacts.

If it was possible to get even more favorable conditions?

Putin still wants Have exactly what he has been looking for from the beginning, that is, maximum control over Ukraine. One way is to create Fait accomplide facto take over Ukrainian territory and allow the conflict to be frozen. At the same time, make a deal with Trump, abolish the sanctions against Russia and build up his economy and ill -cured army.

And wait for Ukraine to get a more compassionate president. However strange it seems, it looks like Putin still frankly believes that such can be chosen in Ukraine.