Putin plays a Russian roulette with Trump
The Kremlin leader is not the chess master for whom his propaganda presents him. He has made many strategic mistakes in this war, and this may be his biggest.
Over the last two days, diplomats and observers of the war in Ukraine have been waiting for information whether the Russian president will fulfill his commitment last week to meet with his Ukrainian counterpart in Turkey. Ukrainian President Volodimir Zelenski, eager to keep the Americans on his side and move to a peaceful process with Vladimir Putin, flew to Turkey in anticipation of negotiations.
Putin’s cynical trick
We have already received what seems like a final clarification from the Russian Foreign Ministry that neither Putin nor Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov will attend the negotiations. Instead, a team of low -ranking Russian bureaucrats will be sent to Turkey.
For Putin, this may be another carefully calculated move in an attempt to show that he controls the levers of this war and – as the man who started it in 2014 – only he can stop it.
However, he plays a high -risk game. The Russian president has so far estimated that Donald Trump, unwilling to escalate the conflict, will continue to tolerate the insults and brutal behavior of Putin against Ukraine.
But Putin’s decision may be perceived by Trump and others in his administration as a very deliberate insult. It could (if we narrow enough eyes) finally force Trump to take action against the Russians. This may include additional sanctions and a potential increase in the amount of US weapons, which Trump allows Ukraine to buy.
| Nevertheless, Putin is not a chess master as his propaganda network presents. He has made many strategic mistakes in this war and this may be his biggest so far. |
The failure to appear in Istanbul certainly offers a glamorous opportunity for the Ukrainian strategic campaign for messages against Putin and his lack of seriousness to participate in a peaceful process.
This is obvious for anyone who examines the evidence of continuing drones against Ukrainian civilians (especially the repulsive safari with drones against people in Kherson), continuing land offensives and sabotage campaigns across Europe. But for many in America and beyond, tired of war that they did not have to make any effort, Russian propaganda for the lack of desire of Ukraine to commit to the peace process has given the US to refuse US support for Ukraine.
This fig leaf has now fallen.
Perhaps worse for Putin-now he looks even smaller and more fearful than throughout the war.
After offering the negotiations, he does not demonstrate the courage to get on the plane and travel to a neighboring country to stand directly against Zelenski.
The ambush in the oval office
Putting aside these problems, what do the war trajectory and peace talks look like from here on?
For America, this is a moment of choice in her position on the negotiations. Although it is allegedly treating every country equally, the reality so far is that the US government has been more favorable to Russian aggressors since January this year than Ukraine.
Trump has recognized a Russian sphere of influence in Eastern Europe. He failed to make Putin criticize Putin while often dealing with slander against Zelenski. Now, given Putin’s repeated refusals of America’s peace requests, can Trump decide on a harder line with Putin to force him to sit on the negotiating table? Or maybe the US will withdraw completely?
For Europe, the sanctions package for the suffocation of the Russian economy, which was paused in anticipation of Putin’s arrival in Istanbul, seems to be on the negotiating table again. The behavior of the Russian leader will strengthen the decisions of European countries to continue to increase defense costs, with the latest development being a commitment to increase military and other national defense spending to 5%. France also said she was ready to share her nuclear weapons with other countries, similar to the NATO program, in which the United States shares such weapons with six alliance members.
Achieving these aspirations will be important for Europe if it wants to expand its support for Ukraine to replace US help, as well as to fill in and increase its ammunition and military forces.
Given the difficult situation of Ukraine, uncertainty about American participation and numerous estimates of Russia’s potential for future aggression, leaders of European countries have no choice but to expand their military forces and help for Kiev.
From the perspective of Ukraine, Putin’s failure to do not really change anything. It corresponds to their low expectations for him.
- The Ukrainian ground forces will continue to defend themselves against the Russian Eastern offensive, killing a huge number of Russian soldiers – nearly 1 million casualties – in exchange for a refusal of small pieces of Ukrainian land.
- They will continue to defend their sky against night attacks – now with a pace of over a thousand drones and rockets launched against Ukrainians every week.
- And they will continue to work with their European and American partners to receive intelligence information, as well as military, economic and diplomatic assistance.
Ukrainians understand that Russian success in this war is not measured in square meters of seized territory, nor in the number of Russian soldiers killed.
Putin’s war has never been in territory. Putin’s purpose has always been and remains the complete submission of Ukraine, the destruction of her dreams for EU and NATO membership and the destruction of the unique, independent and democratic culture that she defends.
While Ukraine does not allow Putin to achieve his goal, Russia cannot win this war. And this is the seeds of Ukraine’s hopes for the future, whether Putin has the courage to stand up to Zelenski.
