Prison for '' Second Putin '' ': What are the consequences of a sentence for the Balkan chief separatist

Dodik Milorad, born in 1959, President of the Republic of Serbian (RS; Serbian part of Bosnia and Herzegovina) and most importantly – probably the most pro -Russian politician of Europe.

For many years, Dodik's activities were aimed at the actual destruction of Bosnia and Herzegovina (running) as a single state. A step that would be clearly in favor of the Russian Federation, because then the EU would receive another powerful conflict near its borders.

According to the Criminal Code, running for such guilt can be obtained up to five years in prison. By the court of Bosnia and Herzegovina Dodik was sentenced to one year of imprisonment, and at the same time – he was forbidden for six years to hold political positions.

This decision has not yet come into force as it may still be appealed.

However, it is obvious that this sentence has significantly accelerated political processes in the Balkans.

Serbia President Alexandar Vuchich, Hungarian Prime Minister Victor Orban and even certain circles within the US Party of the US Party were defense.

And at the same time Dodik prepares not only the court appeal, but also a number of laws that the people's gathering of the Republic of Serbian should be taken urgently. In particular, regarding the actual separation of the Republic of Serbian from running.

Where can such raising be raised? And what are the chances of neutralizing the main agent of the influence of the Russian Federation in the Balkans?

Punishment for separatism

On February 26, the trial of Milorad Dodik, a consistent and aggressive separatist, a Serbian nationalist and a friend of Vladimir Putin finally ended with a sentence.

What was the accused of the leader of the Bosnian Serbs? In short – for threats and actions aimed at destabilization in running, which can lead to the exit of the MS from a single state. And it cannot be ruled out that this process will not be peaceful.

It seems that Dodik has done everything to make separatism and the threat of split Running a permanent component of the country's political life.

NATO's membership and NATO became more distant, which worked many politicians in the country, and Putin smiled with pleasure-in another country the fire of war begins to smolder, the Western Balkans are about to become a theater of hostilities again …

However, running has a powerful fuse with such actions-according to the Deotton peace agreements, the highest power in the country belongs to the Supreme Representative of Big, who has the right to stop legislative decisions and remove the government from the government of any rank, as well as politicians.

However, in 2023, Dodik in Russia's support tried to solve this « problem ».

On June 26, the People's Staff of the RS (hereinafter referred to as the NSRS) adopted a law on termination of publications in the « official Bulletin of the RS » decisions of the Supreme Representative Office.

And before that, he was the act on Christian Schmidt's non -recognition by the Supreme Representative to Big and the ban on cooperation and printing decisions in a local « government courier ».

From the point of view of national legislation, these actions qualified as criminal offenses, and therefore Schmidt canceled them.

However, the NSRS deputies adopted another « law » – the non -application of the court decisions of the court, which became the next step towards the secession of Big.

Contrary to the prohibition of Schmidt, « RS Bulletin » published both laws.

In addition, there was another withdrawal of Serbs from state bodies running and blocking their work, the threat of withdrawing Serbian units from the Armed Forces of the country, attempts to seize state property of running, to prove the international subjectivity of the RS, the decision to fail to comply with the decisions of the Constitutional Court.

Dodik crossed a bunch of red lines and committed a criminal offense.

On the agenda, the issue of protection of the supreme representative and punishment for his disrespect raised on the agenda.

The system of justice responded to the violation, and the prosecutor's office ran after the investigation of the case in August 2023 sued the corresponding accusation against the two – Dodik and Acting Director of the Director of the « Service Bulletin of the RS » Milos Lukich (note that the latter was recognized innocent).

The trial of the leader of the Bosnian Serbs began in February 2024.

The Prosecutor Nesim Chsych asked the court to sentence Dodik to imprisonment for a term of five years and to introduce a ten -year ban on political activity, which is the maximum punishment on such accusations.

And the lawsuit itself was sometimes quite strange. The protection in every way tried to delay the process for an indefinite time. For example, when Dodik returned after illness, the defense demanded to start the process from the beginning – to re -present evidence of guilt and to hear all witnesses.

The lock of the entrance to the court building has become an almost constant decoration of the process. And boorish behavior was very reminiscent of Russian diplomats in the UN.

Dodik's friends increase the pressure

Understanding the inevitability of the indictment, Milorad Dodik tried to use all his political ties.

In the end, he would not have gone on such an attack against sovereignty, without political support.

It should be recalled that on the eve of the approval of the aforementioned « laws » Dodik visited Moscow. And after that visit he came to Belgrade, where he made a rally with President Vuchich.

Serbia President remains the closest friend of Dodik – two Serbs, two leaders of the « Serbian World », both dream of a single « Great Serbia ». Dodik does not hide the desire to unite with Serbia, and Vuchich dreams of becoming an associate of all Serbian lands (well, Kosovo at the same time).

In addition, many PSA citizens have a second, Serbian citizenship, which enables them to actively support Vicich and his party in all elections in Serbia.

So it is not surprising that Vuchich did his best to protect Dodik.

For example, on the eve of the start of the process, the Serbian president stated that « he hopes that the decision would be smart because otherwise I am afraid that we will all have big problems … » « I would have enthusiastically congratulated the justifying sentence, » Vuchich added. Even a special meeting of the Security Council was held, which expressed concern for events in neighboring running.

Similarly, other universities of the President of the RS were distinguished on court.

For example, Croatia President Zoran Milanovich (now one of the most pro-Russian heads of EU Member States) has stated that the court was going over « the most popular Serbian policy » Big, and the EU Supreme Representative Christian Schmidt and his office are the Colonial Management Institutions.

The Hungarian Prime Minister Victor Orban was also marked. He stated that he was hoping for the « termination of the punishment of Dodik », calling the case against him « political hunting. » By the way, it was because of the veto of Orbana Dodik, which is under US sanctions that has never been affected by EU sanctions.

And of course-one-party Dodik from the Union of Independent Social Democrats, who during the court hearing constantly threatened the final withdrawal of the MS from the composition of the run in the case of indictment for their leader.

This is enough to say that the court over Dodik has caused more political crises and turbulence in running than all lawsuits over officials in the last 30 post -war years.

And in addition, Dodik showed that he has allies in the close environment of the US President. It is very symbolic that on the eve of the announcement of the sentence in the Republic of Serbian suddenly appeared Rudy Juliani, former adviser to Donald Trump and his friend.

Thus showing that

The US President is surrounded by circles that will be dissatisfied with an indictment.

It is no coincidence that after the announcement of the sentence in support of Dodik was made by the organization « Republicans for national revival » – a conservative circle of republicans close to Trump. « The European Union has once again demonstrated its contempt for democracy, » they say.

The fact that at such a powerful pressure, Judge Sen Uzunovich eventually approved a real punishment for Dodik (albeit significantly smaller than the prosecutor's office required) is in itself a testament to political courage.

It is significant that Dodik and his lawyers did not even appear on the sentence. Manifestation of disrespect for court or fear? Or – both.

But it would be naive to hope that the sentence would put an end to this conflict.

EU ultimatum

« From today, this Bosnia and Herzegovina are gone, » Milorad Dodik reacted to his sentence to himself.

Similar thesis, while in Moscow, was voiced by Serbian Viceremier Alexandar Vulin – he stated that Big « was never closer to his end. »

And these are not empty threats.

Already in the morning of February 26, that is, before the announcement of the sentence, the people's garden and the RS government began to work in the Non-stop regime.

The gathering, as stated by Dodik immediately after the sentence, should approve four « laws » at once in the near future.

Among them are initiatives on the non -recognition of the trial over the expression and its decision, the ban on the territory of the prosecutor's office and special services in the territory of the RS (together with the opening of criminal cases against prosecutors and judges Big), as well as the prohibition of the activities of the Higher Councils of Judges and the Prosecutor's Office of Big and the formation of their own councils.

In addition, RS representatives are recalled from the federal organs. You should also expect the withdrawal of Serbian units from the army and strengthen the control over the police.

The possibility of closing administrative borders between RS and other parts of running cannot be rejected. Like the scenario, which will try to make a decision to get a run and appoint a referendum on the independence of the RS.

All these are real steps to destroy Bosnia and Herzegovina as a single state.

In such circumstances, the EU and the Supreme Representative of Christian Schmidt will have to act decisively. It also has extensive Bonn powers and sufficient military force.

However, on February 27, the morning showed that Dodik is in no hurry to go to such exacerbation. For unknown reasons, the approval of « separatist » laws was for some reason postponed in the afternoon.

And Dodik even stated that he was ready to go to Saraev (capital) for negotiations.

One of the possible reasons for this is a visit to Bani-Luki, the capital of RS, President of Serbia. Alexander Vuchich flew for an urgent meeting with Dodik immediately after the sentence was announced and an emergency meeting of the National Security Council. It is possible that Vuchich convinced his friend to calm down a little and try to negotiate.

Another reason is the absence of any official reaction of the Russian Federation to the sentence. The country that is most interested in destabilizing in the Balkans is now more concerned about peace talks with Donald Trump. And it is possible – does not want to create an extra stimulus for them.

In the end, the State Department was publicly supported by Dodik. Assured that he will withstand the attempts of « local leaders to undermine safety stability. »

Thus, having removed the intrigue around whether this is contrary to the court decision of the new President of the United States.

* * * * * *

The sentence of Dodik has become a very important step that has to recover the political situation in running.

Attempts from pro -Russian separatists to « loosen » the situation in the country have finally received a decent response. The court decision defended the Constitution of Run and, indirectly, Deyton peace agreements.

The authority and institution of the EU Supreme Representative received protection, and its opponents – warnings.

And if the appeal does not cancel the indictment-Dodik will not become a hero-martyr, but a warning to other politicians who play with separatist slogans.

Authors:

Volodymyr Tsybnik, Candidate of Historical Sciences, Western Balkan expert,

Yuri Panchenko, Educational Editor of « European Truth »