Prices for industrial metals fell by 5-10% due to trade duties
Industrial non-ferrous metals on world exchanges fell to many-month minimums amid fears of a slowdown in trade and reduction in production due to US trade duties and China’s response. Analysts allow a repetition of the situation in 2018-2019, when copper and aluminum prices fell by 20%.
Prices for industrial metals in a week fell by 5-10%, calculated BCS analysts based on the data of the London metals exchange (LME) and the London Association of the Precious Metal Market (LBMA). The largest decrease is noted in the quotes of copper and aluminum, which decreased by 10% and 8% decreased per week, to $ 8.83 thousand and $ 2.35 thousand per ton, respectively, are clarified in the BCS. Nickel fell into 7%, up to $ 15.04 thousand per ton. Pallas and platinum prices decreased by 5.6% and 5%, to $ 926 and $ 939 per ounce, respectively.
According to BCS, this has become one of the strongest weekly falls of prices since 2020. As follows from LME data, copper prices with delivery after three months have fallen to a minimum from the beginning of the year, an aluminum – a minimum since September 2024, and a minimum – a minimum since September 2020.
In March, prices for the main industrial non -ferrous metals grew: the cost of copper on LMe by the end of the month reached a maximum since the summer of 2024, and on the Chicago Machine Exchange (CME) – a historical maximum against the backdrop of US plans to introduce a duties on the import of metal in the coming weeks (See “Kommersant” from March 26).
The current price fall, BCS analysts noted, is associated with the US President Donald Trump in April duties for imports Of the 185 countries of the world, as well as the response measures of China, which introduced duties of 34% for goods from the United States.
The director of the group of corporate ratings Akra Ilya Makarov says that investors are likely to fear global inflation and stagnation in mechanical engineering, metallurgy.
The head of the analytical department of « RIMO-TREAST » Oleg Abeli agrees that measures are threatening with a slowdown in trade and reduction in production. “The export prospects of non -ferrous metals will now be much more dependent on Chinese demand. And any Introduction to China immediately limit their sales, ”he indicates. Ingosstrakh Bank Analysting Director Vasily Kutin notes that the breakdown of the global supply chains will lead to the reorientation of countries for domestic consumption and world demand will inevitably decrease. In addition, says Mr. Abelev, many investors in dystal futures record profit and go to other protective assets.
At the same time, copper, aluminum products, a number of other metals were not valid for the new duties of the United States, it follows from the document published by the White House. S&P Global in its review notes that the exclusion of some goods from the action of duties correlates with the desire of the administration to strengthen the manufacturing industry of the United States, which in some cases depends on the import of raw materials. But S&P Global surveyed analysts doubt that this will quickly affect the growth of production in the United States. In addition, they expect that the United States will still introduce copper imports after the end of the corresponding investigation.
In Rusal and Norkel, comments were not provided. “Rusal”, reporting in 2024, noted the influence of restrained growth in demand on aluminum against the backdrop of the weak dynamics of the economy and high interest rates. The financial indicators of Norilsk Nickel in 2024 decreased, including due to a fall in the prices for Nickel and Palladium (See “Kommersant” from February 10). The Rusala shares on the Moscow Exchange on April 7 by 20:00 Moscow time decreased by 3.5%, to 32.97 rubles. For paper, Norilsk Nickel shares were cheaply 0.6%, up to 110.2 rubles. For paper.
The managing director of the NCR rating agency Dmitry Orekhov predicts that in the coming months, non -ferrous industrial metals will fall by at least 3-5% of the current level. The pressure on the quotes will increase if the countries victims from the tariff war respond with their own rise in import duties on goods from the United States, he adds.
The BCS admits a possible further decrease in prices, as in 2018-2019, when the administration of Donald Trump for the first time tightened the trade policy.
Then the prices for copper and aluminum collapsed 20% of local peaks in six months, analysts indicate. According to their estimates, the volatility in the markets of metals may remain extremely high.
According to Oleg Ablev, a further decrease in prices can affect aluminum, nickel, zinc and tin. Demand for nickel can sneaking due to a decrease in construction activity, and zinc and tin are used in microelectronics, which is always sensitive to trade wars, the analyst notes. The countries of Southeast Asia, in his words, can now simply accumulate non-ferrous metal reserves.
