Presidential election: « To the front or back? »: Poland choose new head of state

In the runoff election around the presidential office in Poland, there is a lively turnout. By noon, almost a quarter of the eligible voters (24.83 percent) had made their vote, as the election commission announced. The last surveys before the vote make a electoral thriller expect. The liberal Rafal Trzaskowski and the right -wing conservative Karol Nawrocki are on par.

The visions that both have for their country are diametrically opposed. The deeply split Poland faces a choice of direction. It will significantly determine the course of the EU and NATO member- with effects for Germany and Europe.

What the choice is about in Poland

« To the front or back? » The magazine headlined Polityka In its latest edition – and that shows the dilemma of Germany’s eastern neighbor. If the Warsaw Mayor Trzaskowski wins the race, the pro -European head of government Donald Tusk has a party friend and strong allies in the presidential palace, who will support him in his reform course.

If the non -party historian Nawrocki prevails, Tusk has bad cards. Because Nawrocki is supported by the right -wing conservative PIS, Poland’s largest opposition party. Nawrocki could block draft laws with his veto law and make Tusk practically impossible. An unstable Poland and early new elections could result – and the possible return of the PIs to power.

Poland is an economic locomotive for the EU

Poland has been a member of the EU since 2004. In the past two decades, the country with its 37.5 million inhabitants has stood steadily economic growth-with the exception of a small dent as a result of Corona pandemic. The average income has more than doubled since 2015, currently the equivalent of 2113 euros.

A network of highways, also subsidized with EU funds, runs through the country. You won’t find any sparkling holes, the trains of the Polish railway usually drive on time. Newing homes with a double garage and solar system testify in many places that prosperity has also arrived in the country. And everywhere people pay cashlessly with Blik, a state -owned mobile payment system.

Grown military importance through Ukraine war

Russia’s war of attack against the neighboring Ukraine Has up to Poland’s role as a NATO partner. The country is an important logistical hub for the military aid of the West for Kiev.

Poland also feels threatened and upgraded by Russia. This year it wants to spend 4.7 percent from its gross domestic product for defense. His armed forces count 206,000 soldiers – significantly more than the Bundeswehr.

Liberal city dwellers, conservative rural residents

The ideas about how Poland is supposed to position itself with its growing meaning differ greatly within the population. The first round of the election showed: The liberal pro -European Trzaskowski has its voters mainly in the cities. The 53-year-old Warsaw Colonel is committed to the rights of the LGBT community, speaks five foreign languages ​​and is well connected internationally from his time as deputy foreign minister.

But in the country the number of those who have the feeling that their interests are falling by the wayside in the rapid change of society. Many followers of Karol Nawrocki say that they wanted « normality ». You mean the return to a traditional, Catholic family picture. And they want less Europe, less migration and more nation.

Fears before the loss of sovereignty

The 42-year-old Nawrocki is a man with a difficult past. He was amateur boxer and bouncer in his youth, has contacts in the red light milieu from this time and was involved in a mass brawl of football hooligans in 2009. All of this does not necessarily speak for normality.

But Nawrocki plays cleverly with the fears of people. The EU wants to make a « district with a Polish -born population » from Poland and take sovereignty to the country, he warns in the election campaign. « Why should we give the command of the Polish armed forces to Brussels if Ursula von der Leyen didn’t even have the Bundeswehr under control? » The audience likes this – and nobody questions whether there are any plans at all.

Right -wing extremists benefit from disenchantment with politics

Another factor in this election is disenchantment with politics. Many people simply have enough of the fight between 68-year-old Donald Tusk and 75-year-old Jaroslaw Kaczynski for more than 20 years. This is an explanation that more than 21 percent of voters voted for two right-wing extremists in the first round of elections, said Agnieszka Lada-Konefal from the German Poland Institute. « That was the red card for these two gentlemen. The young voters in particular can no longer be found. »

The right -wing extremist Slawomir Mentzen and the openly anti -Semitic Grzegoz Braun were eliminated in the first round of election. Many of their supporters are protest voters whose behavior is difficult to estimate in the runoff election. But the assumption is that a large part of them will give Nawrocki their voice.