Present battles, future victories | Spain
In these almost two years transcurate From the general electionsthe vote to the matches has not varied too much. The Popular Party (PP) loses only six tenths, the PSOE 2.2 points (an amount similar to the survey error), while Vox wins 1.7 points. Only adding a considerable collapse, of about 7 points, due, on the one hand, to the split of Podemos, which stays with a quarter of its vote and, on the other, to the own losses that would add up to total about 4 points. The Barometer of April 40db. For the country and the SER chain offers this photograph and allows us to portray the electoral support of the first two games and understand where the electoral battles that will decant the future victories will be fought today.
The PP, at the head in the Voting estimatenourishes a prototype voter: a person, man or woman, who lives in a large city (of more than half a million inhabitants), with higher studies, middle-high and high class and with a right-wing ideology, center-right or center. The Robot portrait of the PSOE voter, on the other hand, is that of a person (also man or woman), of any age above the age of 24, of middle-low and low class, or unemployed or passive class, that is, pensioner, housewife or student, and progressive ideology, whether central-left, left or extreme left. Broadly speaking, therefore, photography is that of a country in which those who suffer most take refuge under the umbrella of the Socialist Party, while those who do not suffer do so in the PP.
Although These are robot portraitsit is evident that, being two large games, there is a great internal variation between their voters. The portrait serves above all to understand what are the divergence points between both formations.
How can the two great games be threatened? In the case of the popular, beyond the danger that Vox supposes, with the ability to penetrate the broad spectrum of the right, they are losing support among those over 64, the most numerous age group: in this barometer (and is not the first), they already opt for the socialists. On the other hand, the Socialists, with pull among young people, are about to lose the support of women between 18 and 24 (the boys of that age have been choosing Vox for some time as the first party).
And where is the battle to free? Of course, in the middle class: In it, the two main parties tie, without being glimpsed, therefore, which of the two will opt mostly. In this atomized society, the middle class is not much more compact, of course not as it was before, but those who compose it seek well -being and security in a climate of uncertainty and pessimism, in which most believe that in five years the world will be more violent, authoritarian and unequal.
