Prepare for the new world disorder

A poem, bequeathed to us by the irreparably gloomy and prophetic Canadian performer Lenard Cohen, ends with the words: « And one more thing / you will not like / what will come after America. »

At the 80th anniversary of the end of World War II, we receive new evidence every day that a remarkably long-lasting international order, headed by the United States, is already in history. Now everyone is trying to understand what can come after him. A new multipolar order? Spheres of influence? A global version of the nineteenth -century nineteenth -century balance system established in Europe with the Vienna Congress?

Of course, there has never been a golden era of the liberal international order in history. But in much of the world – in Europe, Asia and Oceania, a system of security and economic order, maintained by the Liberal Leviathan, was operating, as John Akeberry, a prince’s researcher, describes the United States from the period after 1945. This order, which has reached its apogee at the beginning of this century, is part of some time, is part of this century Possible thanks to the globalization process under the leadership of the United States and partly because of the arrogant self -harm course adopted by the United States.

President Donald Trump destroys the last foundations of this system with unprecedented speed and recklessness. Even if the American democracy escapes unharmed from Trump’s four -year revolution, however unlikely it may be, for relations between the United States and its allies, we can say that they « will never carry the spirit of a pleasant and confident morning » (if I can quote the poem The Lost Leader (« Lost Leader ») by Robert Browning).

Against the backdrop of three, potentially even four significant wars around the world right now (in Ukraine, Gaza and Sudan, along with the fight between nuclear weapons India and Pakistan for control of Kashmir), and the suffocating three-digit duties that the two largest economies in the world have to have a mutual, that they may

Even if a lifting superpower (China) and a relatively declining superpower (USA) do not fall into the « Tukidid trap » and do not start war, periods of large -scale changes in forces almost invariably bring with them tensions on the international scene. The leaders of China and Russia have just celebrated the end of World War II in Europe by meeting in Moscow to reinforce their partnership with the West. Xi Jinping even compares the « arrogant fascist forces », defeated in 1945, with today’s « one -pole, hegemony and harassment ». (Know from whom.) Today Russia maintains a military economy and Vladimir Putin is determined to restore as much as possible of the Russian Empire. India of Narendra Modi has its own nationalist ambitions and is experiencing a manic hostility to Pakistan, supported by China.

In addition, there are several medium -sized countries such as Turkey, Brazil and South Africa. It is noteworthy that these countries often see opportunities in the new disorder. They can allied with some great power for one purpose, with another great power – for another purpose, progressing endlessly in the realization of their aspirations. Meanwhile, small countries, such as those in the Persian Gulf, can be partners and intermediaries of all great powers, like the bird’s Egyptian bride, which is experiencing through the cleansing of residual products standing between the teeth of the crocodiles.

For 80 years after atomic bombing over Hiroshima and Nagasaki, the use of nuclear weapons was taboo. But now that the world is watching Russia, which has nuclear weapons, waged a large -scale war against Ukraine, which in 1994 voluntarily abandoned its nuclear weapons from the Soviet Union in exchange for guarantees of its security by the United States, UK

In South Korea, torturing, because it does not know exactly what Russia promised to North Korea in exchange for the provision of significant military support against Ukraine, there is a debate about the possibility of acquiring nuclear weapons – and South Korea is a country possessing the technological capacity necessary for this purpose. This topic is also on the agenda in the Middle East as well as the region of the swing between the nuclear arsenal Israel and Iran, which is to obtain nuclear weapons. At the same time, Europeans are beginning to accept the thought that they need their own nuclear umbrella.

In parallel, the ongoing technological revolution has erected new dimensions of geopolitical rivalry, including data control, software programs and communication networks.

The combination of continued population growth and climate change will exacerbate competition for resources and increase the pressure for mass migration.

There are certainly factors that act in the opposite direction. China has an obvious economic interest in maintaining the global commercial system open, as it is mostly used by it. Even the most optedly tuned among the medium-sized forces should be afraid of the ability to become a total disintegration. There are encouraging signals for liberal resistance in Canada, Australia and Europe. Pope Leo XIV, for his part, promises to « build bridges » in view of the worrying time we live in.

Nothing in history is inevitable. However, it is recommended that believers in the ideal of a liberal international order, which can never be fully realized, to assume that the melancholy Lenard Cohen is right. We must deliberately prepare for an extended period of world disorder.

Translate from English Daniel Penev

* A concept bearing the name of the ancient Greek historian and commander Tucydid, which describes the dangerous and unpredictable dynamics that activates when a rising force threatens to dethrone the dominant force.

** Deepseek is a Chinese artificial intelligence company that is considered competitive or even better than those developed in the US and Europe. Deep Strike is invented by the author a name, which in translation means « deep impact ».