Potatoes have risen in briefly: reasons for the increase in value
The fall of the crop and a shortage of sown areas led to a reduction in potato reserves in Russia. As a result, its wholesale cost from the beginning of the year increased by more than 85%, by last spring – 4.4 times, and retail prices have increased by 2.8 times a year by the year. Following the wholesale link raises the cost and retail: at the end of April, the price of potatoes on the shelves reached 85.4 rubles. per 1 kg, which is almost three times higher than the same indicator last year.
The average wholesale value of the table potatoes of the crop of 2024 at the end of April amounted to 46.3 rubles. For 1 kg, adding 85.2%since the beginning of the year, it follows from the data provided by Kommersant participants. They call the price a record for the history of observations. According to AB-Center, on May 2, potatoes in wholesale cost an average of 51.1 rubles. for 1 kg. During the month, the value increased by 20.5%, a year by a year – 4.4 times. The Rusprodsoyuz estimates the average cost of potatoes in wholesale purchase on May 2 at 47.6 rubles. for 1 kg. For a month, growth amounted to 25%.
Following wholesale, consumer prices are also growing. According to Rosstat, on April 28, the average cost of potatoes was 85.4 rubles. for 1 kg. A year by the year, the indicator has grown 2.8 times. Stanislav Bogdanov, chairman of the Presidium of the Retail Association of Companies, says that retailers are selling the most affordable potatoes at prices below procurement, investing on average 2 rubles. in 1 kg.
The market is experiencing rising prices due to a reduction in reserves, a lack of storage, energy consumption and in high demand, is listed by Dmitry Vostrikov, Executive Director of Rusprodsoyuz.
The brand manager of the “Snakes” category “Moscow Potato” Ivan Bodunov considers the main reason the deficit: the crop in 2024 was reduced due to poor weather and lack of seed material. The problem, he said, affected both food and chips (with a high starch content) potatoes.
According to Rosstat, the fee of potatoes in all farms in Russia in 2024 amounted to 17.8 million tons, declining by 11.9% a year by the year. The crop of agricultural expenses fell by 16.7%, to 4.4 million tons, farmers and individual entrepreneurs – by 13.2%, up to 3 million tons. Dmitry Vostrikov recalls that in 2023 the situation was reverse: a record harvest led to a decrease in value. As a result, the selling prices of manufacturers did not always cover the costs, and they reduced sown areas. According to the “AB-Center”, 279.8 thousand hectares were allocated for the industrial cultivation of potatoes in 2024, 10.8% less than a year ago.
The head of the Lazarevskoye agricultural holding Christina Romanovskaya explains that the profitability of potatoes can fluctuate in the range from zero to 150%. The company, according to her, abandoned culture because of problems with personnel: “The potato cleaning season is a problem of universal scale, the field staff had to send to the fields.” The direction can show a high margin in the case of storage facilities that allow you to sell the crop during the year, and not immediately, the expert believes.
In 2025, the area for potatoes, according to the Ministry of Agriculture, will increase by 2.3%, to 286.3 thousand hectares. But harvesting, according to Kommersant’s interlocutor, from among the processors, can begin later due to May frosts. He considers uncertainty the main risk to business. “We are connected by long -term contracts with suppliers, this allows you to restrain the cost of raw materials, but if the price increases continues, they can refuse obligations by redrawing the volume on the network,” the expert says.
Uncertainty in the market will remain until the end of June – early July, when potato cleaning usually begins in Russia.
Now local products have ended and mainly imports from Egypt on the shelves, they explained “Kommersant” in the “tape”. In the press service of X5 (retail chains “Perekrestok”, “Pyaterochka” and “Chizhik”) they say that on average foreign potatoes forms 10% of the assortment, but in the spring-30–40%. In addition to Egypt, culture is actively delivered from Pakistan and China.
Ivan Bodunov says that in conditions of a shortage of Russian raw materials, processors use more imports: in June in chips, it can reach 80%. This year, in Russia, until July 31, there is a duty -free quota for the import of 150 thousand tons of potatoes. The Ministry of Agriculture previously announced that the value can be increased to 300 thousand tons. But the interlocutor “Kommersant” calls the design of products within the framework of the standard -intensive standard: “It is necessary to separately prove the target import of potatoes”.
The Kommersant source does not exclude that with an increase in value, consumers will reduce the purchases of potatoes, focusing on more affordable side dishes, such as buckwheat. Its cost, according to Rosstat, decreased by 6.6%in a year, to 78.4 rubles. for 1 kg. According to Nielsen, in January – Mart, natural sales of potatoes decreased by 0.4% year by the year. In the first quarter of last year, on the contrary, an increase of 2.9%was traced.
The Ministry of Agriculture “Kommersant” explained that in the first half of the year, imported young potatoes from friendly countries have traditionally entered the market. Taking into account the reduction of domestic production, the Ministry initiated measures of customs and tariff regulation. It is also possible to conclude regional authorities concluding agreements with networks on the fixation of maximum permissible retail prices for products included in the list of socially significant goods.
