Positive migration is maintained but the demographic problem is far from solved

Among the positive news is that on an annual basis the reduction of the population of the country is minimal – by only 0.13%. Although it is too early to talk about a long -term trend – the processes have been reversed for decades in demographics, but abrupt changes are also possible, especially when migration plays a leading role – the data from the last few years after the census, the apocalyptic forecasts for the « disappearance » of the Bulgarian population in the medium term have.

The mortality rate, in turn, with a slightly exceeding 100,000 people in 2024. With absolute certainty, we can declare that the effect of Covid Pandemia, when the indicator increased to nearly 150,000 people in 2021 was overcome. At the forefront of reducing mortality is to improve the quality of the healthcare system, especially through premature and preventable mortality.

For the next year, the high positive migration has been preserved – the number of settlers in the country exceeds that of the emigrants with over 39,000 people. If statistics also reported temporary and seasonal workers who play an increasingly important role in sectors such as hotels and restaurants and construction in the active season, probably the net number of migrants would be even larger. While in 2020-21 it was more about returning Bulgarians, today the balance has been changed in favor of people from non-EU countries, which make up 52% ​​of all immigrants in the country. The largest share preserves the traditionally leading group of immigrants from Turkey (22% of all third countries), the significant effect of the war in Ukraine is also maintained, with its citizens having a 17% share, the share of Syrians is also significant. The distribution points to two main reasons for immigration – on the one hand, the Bulgarian labor market is increasingly attractive to third -country workers because of the increase in wages and a shortage of workforce, on the other, refugees remain an important group, which means that their effective economic and social integration is particularly important.

In regional terms, migration remains relatively evenly distributed between areas in the country, with those with negative mechanical growth relatively close to balance. An exception is Smolyan, Montana and Sliven, where it exceeds -1 ‰. Expectedly the highest is the net migration in Kardzhali, where most Turks are heading, but also in Burgas and Varna, who have taken over a significant share of refugees from Ukraine. No area achieves a positive natural growth, the closest being the capital, with -2 ‰, but in the economically the least developed parts of the country it threw -15 ‰, which even with positive migration guarantees a rapid decline in the population.