Pork purchase prices in Russia began to decline

Pork purchase prices, which showed growth three months ago, recently in Russia began to decline. It’s all about the increased offer in the domestic market. In one week alone, this type of meat in the wholesale link fell by 2-3%. The pressure on demand and, accordingly, the price can also provide a growing offer of a competing chicken.

Over the 13th week of 2025, that is, from March 24 to 30, the average wholesale prices for half a pork decreased by 3% week by a week, to 195 rubles. For 1 kg, follows from the weekly monitoring of the analytical company NTECH. On the same 3%, up to 265 rubles. per 1 kg, a decrease in the cost of the bribe on the bones was recorded. The shoulder blade fell by 2%, up to 259 rubles. per 1 kg, ham – by 1%, up to 268 rubles. for 1 kg. Only the neck has risen in price over the week – by 3%, up to 400 rubles. for 1 kg.

Pork prices have been reduced in the last few weeks, since it has become larger in the Russian market, explains Konstantin Korneev, director of the Rincon management agricultural company.

In addition, according to him, pork producers presses the growth of supply in the domestic market of other types of meat, such as poultry. Production, in particular, chicken began to stabilize after a long fall due to a complex epizootic situation in previous periods.

The head of the National Meat Association, Sergei Yushin, believes that prices are reduced due to a reduction in demand. According to the expert, this was influenced by the increase in prices in previous periods. “For example, by the end of 2024, the brisket was significantly rise in price,” he notes. In addition, the consolidation of manufacturers that began in 2022 also affects the price situation in the segment, which allows you to more effectively manage production costs and reduce cost, says Arthur Gafarov, head of the Institute for Entrepreneurship and Economics.

Prices for certain parts of pork and meat as a whole can change under the influence of seasonal demand, for example, due to the now great post among Christians, Sergey Yushin does not exclude. According to analysts of the consulting agency AD Libitum, the increase in the cost of pork can be expected in a week, by the beginning of the barbecue season. Nevertheless, Mr. Korneev does not expect a dramatic increase in pork prices, even if there is a surge of seasonal demand.

In general, 2025 may be difficult for meat manufacturers, warned in AD Libitum.

Apparently, the dynamics of production volumes will remain positive, and it will be more difficult to set the next record for meat consumption to customers each time, it is predicted in the company. According to the general director of the National Union of Pigovodov Yuri Kovalev, in 2024 the growth in the production of pork in Russia amounted to 3.6%. This year, it expects a reduction in pace to 1.5–2% due to the complete satisfaction of needs in the Russian market.

Analysts do not exclude that export shipments can also decrease due to the strengthening of the ruble. “This factor, of course, is important, but the current course is up to 85 rubles. For the dollar – not so critical for the industry so that shipments abroad begin to decline, ”said Yuri Kovalev. At the same time, he adds, Russian manufacturers are not seriously dependent on exports – they supply only 5-6% of their own volumes abroad. Therefore, if even 1-2% of all exports are paused in the moment, an oversupply of supply will not occur in the domestic market, the expert states. According to Dmitry Alekseev, commercial director of the AgroEko Group of Companies (Pork Producer), the sale of products that are not in demand in the country abroad allows you to receive a large margin and thereby restrain the growth of domestic prices.

Vladimir Komarov