Pope election heats the international betting market-and where is Hollerich?

Millions of people around the world have been watching the preparations for the election of a successor since the death of Pope Francis; Some of special motifs: Church -savvy player nature want to earn money with the upcoming conclave. Some cardinals are at the forefront in the race. But do you also have Luxembourg’s cardinal Jean-Claude Hollerich on the piece of paper?

Well, one of the most popular platforms for betting around Pontifex succession is the aspiring online forecast market Polymarket Referring to New York. Opinions are acted there like stocks. The end of the Ukraine War, a trade agreement between China and the USA, a divorce between Harry and Meghan or the future Pope-everything and everyone can get into the focus of the gamers. Sometimes there are surprisingly precise predictions from swarm intelligence – paired with a financial incentive.

Pietro parolin is the favorite

Only binary bets are offered. That means the respective forecast occurs – or not. In the case of the conclusion, in which 133 cardinals are expected to choose a new head of the church in the Sistine chapel from May 7, the question is: Who will become the next Pope? It can be placed on or against a whole series of candidates. The options « yes » or « no » are behind every name.

Four favorites have developed since Francis’s death on Easter Monday. In the first place is the Cardinal Pietro Parolin (70) from northern Italy, whose chance of winning is currently 27 percent quantified. The experienced church diplomat has recently been number two in the Vatican for more than eleven years. As a designated director of the conclave, he will definitely play an important role in the choice.

In second place in the probability ranking of Polymarket follows with 19 percent Luis Antonio Tagle (67), most famous Cardinal. Curio Cardinal Peter Turkson (76) from Ghana are also attributed to significant opportunities (17 percent). Another Italian follows in fourth place (12 percent): Cardinal Matteo Zupi, Archbishop of Bologna and chairman of the Italian bishop’s conference.

Cardinal Hollerich is considered an outsider for gamers

Cardinal Jean-Claude Hollerich has so far been unsuccessful on this list of betting candidates. The dignitary from the Grand Duchy is given opportunities. For example, a few days ago, the US broadcaster CNN published a list of the possible successors of Pope Francis, who died on Easter Monday. And there the Archbishop of Luxembourg was in place in 12th place of the most promising candidates.

Hollerich’s opportunities at CNN are justified, among other things, that, just like Francis Jesuit, he is fluent in several languages ​​and is a supporter of the recently initiated church reforms. And yet no bets have so far been completed-which, among other things, a user of the betting platform criticizes: « Cardinal Hollerich wants to be the next pope and he’s not even on this list … » (Cardinal Hollerich will be the next Pope and is not even on the list. Other commentators, on the other hand, point out that Hollerich has little chance due to the fact that he is Jesuit. It is unlikely that after the first Jesuit Pope the next Jesuit will be again, a user of the platform points out. And possibly Hollerich is too progressive.

What distinguishes the Polymarket opinion marketplace from conventional providers is the decentralized control using blockchain technology, which works according to the model of financial markets: Anyone who has bet on Wednesday morning (April 30th) that Parolin was winning the choice had to pay 27 cents for a corresponding stock. If you keep right, the value increases to a dollar (100 percent). If the bet is lost, the stock falls worthless.

Anyone who dares can win a lot

The chart has depicted the trend since Francis’ death and shows that Turkson and Zuppi have caught up since then, while the popularity of parolin and tagle has dropped. Anyone who prefers conventional bookmakers will be at the British company William Hill Looking that is one of the largest betting providers in the United Kingdom. William Hill has appointed Parolin with a quota of 9: 4 with a view of the conclave as a « leading contender » (leading contender). So if you put 100 euros on the Vatican Diplomats, you will get 225 euros back if successful.

However, there is much more to get with Cardinal Hollerich. The Luxembourg lies with William Hill (as of Wednesday afternoon) with a quota of 50: 1 in midfield. So if you bet 100 British pounds on the Luxembourg, you will receive £ 5,000 if the cardiac from the Grand Duchy should actually be chosen as the new Pope.

At the US provider Bet US Also slogans and Tagle are among the favorites, whereas Hollerich grasp only a few chances of succession. The betting quota corresponds to the American Moneyline format, is therefore shown a little differently. Luxembourg’s candidate therefore has a quota of +2500 (as of Wednesday afternoon). That means: If you set $ 100, in the event of the appointment of Hollerich, you get a net profit of $ 2,500-plus the $ 100. So the quota is 26: 1.

Put an end to the hustle and bustle

Bet us can also not only be betting on the possible Papal successor, but also on the number of voting passages. In addition, there are also numerous other providers who capitalize on the numerous speculations about Francis successor. Pope Gregor XIV, one of the predecessors from the 16th century, is likely to turn around the grave in the face of so much gambling: Because clergy and lay people in Rome set up sums in Pope elections centuries ago, Gregor had to put an end to the goings. The betting fever disrupted him too much.

In his bull (certificate) « Cogit Nos » he banned any bet on the pontificate in 1591. In the event of an infringement, excommunication threatened – the exclusion from the church community. In the meantime, the strict regulation has largely been forgotten. In the Catechism of the Church it says today: « Gambling (such as card games) or betting violates and in itself not against justice. However, you will be morally inadmissible when you bring someone around what he needs a living to his and other people. »

The contribution was partly created with material from the news agency KNA