Poll. Ad leads voting intentions, undecided exceed PS

If the elections were held next Sunday, the coalition between the PSD-CDs would receive the preference of the Portuguese. In the survey conducted by Consulmark2 to the Sunrise And Euronews, 25.4% said they intended to vote for AD led by Luís Montenegro, against the 19.7% they said they vote for the PS. The result obtained by the party led by Pedro Nuno Santos in this poll is, moreover, lower than the number of undecided that reaches 21.4%.

In third position is the arrival, which drops from 13% registered in the March poll to 10.3%. The liberal initiative rises slightly to 6.2% of voting intentions, while free, over 1.4% to 3.3% exceeding the left block that also rises slightly to 2.9%. Regarding the blocks, the entry of the party founders in the campaign does not seem to have had effects, on the contrary: _ 46.6% of respondents considers that it was no good idea to call Francisco Loução, Luís Fazenda and Fernando Rosas for the campaign, against 20.1% who think the party will benefit. A similar value understands that the return of the founders of BE_ will have no influence. The CDU goes down to 1.9%, while Inês Sousa Real Pan rises to 1%.

Three relevant data. About 85.6% of respondents say they intend to vote in the elections on May 18. On the other hand, 65.4% say they have already decided on who will vote, an increase of 12.2% compared to March. Most – 53.9% believe AD will win the elections.

With the arithmetic distribution of undecided, AD would be 33.3%, the PS with 25.9%, the arrival with 13.5%and the liberal initiative 8.1%, results that would reinforce the majority of right in Parliament. However, respondents have increased, albeit slightly, the conviction that AD should not collide with the arrival. Already the free would rise to the 4.3%, exceeding the BE with 3.8%, while the CDU would go down to 2.5%and the PAN was 1.4%.

It is recalled that in the last legislatures the Consul of Consulmark2 for the Sunrise and the Euronews It was the one that approached the real results of the elections.

Regarding the preference of the Portuguese to occupy the position of Prime Minister, Luís Montenegro remains the favorite of the Portuguese, although Pedro Nuno Santos has reduced the disadvantage in the last weeks of 14.5 percentage points to 12.3 pp in case of defeat, the majority consider that both should be dismissed. Already André Ventura descends in the preference of the Portuguese for Prime Minister, such as the number of undecided.

Spinumviva influences vote. Wood, no

Despite being a favorite to hold the position of Prime Minister, not everything is good news for Luís Montenegro. Most respondents – 56.3% – say they were not satisfied with the explanations given by the head of government about the Spinumviva case, the family business created by Montenegro while in the private sector and that went to the name of women and children when it reached the leadership of the PSD. In addition, in relation to the survey of March, the number of respondents disagreed with the way the Prime Minister dealt with the controversy. In all 63.3% say they do not agree with Montenegro’s approach, against 27.8% that were satisfied. Finally, perhaps more worrying for AD, 54.9% of respondents considers that the controversy that led to the presentation of the confidence motion and the consequent fall of the government will influence the meaning of voters’ vote on May 18. In the opposite direction, most respondents (63.1%) consider that the result of recent elections in Madeira will not influence the electoral result.

Portuguese concerned with real problems

Health, housing and education are the three main concerns of the Portuguese, soon followed by inflation and cost of living. Insecurity and immigration at the bottom of the table.

When asked what are the 10 most important problems in the country, respondents’ answers seem to show that there is a removal between the priorities of political discourse and those that are the main concerns of the population. More than the reasons that led to the political crisis, cases of corruption or insecurity and immigration, respondents in the survey of Consulmark for the Sunrise And Euronews are mainly concerned with topics that tell them directly respect: health, housing, education and cost of living. Access to health care and the state of the National Health Service is, by far, the theme that most concerns the Portuguese (49.6%). In second place is access to housing (39.3%), more specifically the increase in interest rates and the cost of rent. 22.8% of respondents say they are mainly concerned about education/education, while 19% answered that inflation and cost of living is the main problem of the country. Regarding the March poll, these four themes rose in the Portuguese concerns, unlike the political crisis and the spinumviva case: only 13.7% indicated it as an important theme. A value close to those that are concerned about corruption (12%), immigration (11.1%) and insecurity (10.3%).

Presidential Gouveia and Early Melo

Even without openly declared that he is a candidate for the Presidency of the Republic, Admiral Henrique Gouveia and Melo brings together the preference of respondents to succeed Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa. The former Armada’s Chief of Staff brings together 36.9% of the voting intentions of the Consul of Consulmark2 for the Sunrise and Euronews. Secondly, almost 20 percentage points away follows Luís Marques Mendes. The former commentator and former PSD leader, who has already presented his candidacy, brings together for 17.2% of voting intentions. The percentage of undecided reaches 15.1%. Despite not having collected the support of the Socialist Party or officially presented his candidacy, António José Seguro appears third in the poll, with 8.1% of the votes, followed by Paulo Portas, with 5.8% and André Ventura with 4.5%.

Technical file
Opinion study on the current social and political situation in Portugal, conducted by Consulmark2, market studies and fieldwork, LDA for the newspaper Nascer do Sol/Euronews.
Universe: Individuals over 18 residents in Portugal. Quota sampling by gender, age and region variables, based on censuses 2021. The sample had 583 effective interviews: 285 men and 298 women; 89 Between 18 and 34 years, 326 between 35 and 64 years and 168 for 65 and more years; North 189, Center 75, West and Tagus Valley 46, Greater Lisbon 126, Setúbal Peninsula 52, Alentejo 32, Algarve 31, RA Azores 16 and RA Madeira 16.
Technique: Telephone Interviews (CATI).
Dates of field work: took place between March 27 and April 3, 2025.
Answer Rate: 54.9%.
Maximum sampling error for a 95%confidence interval: + 4.0%.
Study Responsibility: Consulmark2, Market Studies and Field Work, LDA, under the technical direction of José Constantino Costa.
In “The Vote”, the percentage of NS/NR/Refuses distributed arithmetically is 21.4%.