Poll. Ad leads. Majority with closer liberal initiative

If the May 18 elections were held next Sunday, AD would win the elections with 34.1% of the votes. The PS would remain the second most voted political force with 27.1%, the arrival would maintain third position, with 15.2%and the liberal initiative (IL) would reach 8.3%. These results of the Consulmark2 survey for the Sunrise And Euronews show that in relation to the first half of April, the technical draw is maintained between the two major political forces, as the margin of error is 4.1%.

One of the most significant data of the survey is that, depending on the distribution of deputies’ mandates, it may be possible for AD to obtain an absolute majority in coalition with IL: the two joint forces bring together 42.4% of the votes. In 2022, António Costa’s PS reached the majority in Parliament with 41.38% of the votes.

It is certain that the next Assembly of the Republic will continue to have a major majority. Asked if Luís Montenegro should maintain the « no » or if it should be ally with André Ventura to achieve an absolute majority and the answer was conclusive: 66.8% responded that AD should not ally with arrival. As for a possible reissue of the PS’s “sprouting”, voters remain divided: 42,95 say the left covenant should be reissued against 49,25 that refuse the idea.

The results of Consulmark2’s latest poll – which in the legislative elections of a year ago was the one that came closest to electoral results – also indicates that free stabilized in 4.3%, that the left block (BE) dropped to 2.7% compared to the first half of April, which CDU increased slightly to the same 2.7% and that the PAN goes down to 1.1%.

These results result from the arithmetic distribution of undecided that, in this poll dropped slightly from 21.4% in the first half of April to 20.2%. Without the distribution of undecided, AD led by Luís Montenegro collected 26.7% of voting intentions, against 21.3% of Pedro Nuno Santos’s party. Already the arrival collected 12% and the liberal initiative 6.5%. All of these parties rise in relation to the place of the first half of April. The free is in 3.3%, the block drops to 2.1%, drawing with the slightly rising CDU. Already the PAN goes down to 0.9%.

The poll was held between April 14 and 22, already with the television debates taking place and during the period in which the opening of a preventive investigation to Pedro Nuno Santos was released. The sample had 569 telephone interviews: 282 men and 287 women. The margin of error is 4.1%.

A total of 87% of respondents said they intended to vote on May 18 and 69.4% have already decided to vote for. Asked what is the most likely scenario, 53% of respondents said I believed that AD will win the elections with a relative majority, against 19.7% who believe the PS will be the most voted party. Only 6.5% say the alliance between PDS and CDS will get the absolute majority.

Montenegro is the favorite for Prime Minister

Luís Montenegro continues to deserve the preference of the Portuguese to occupy the position of Prime Minister. AD leader even increased the difference to Pedro Nuno Santos compared to the first half of April. According to the survey of Consulmark2 for nsunset And Euronews, 45.3% of respondents prefer Montenegro to lead the next government, against 25.5% who choose the socialist leader. Only 11.8% said they preferred André Ventura.

About the concern of each of the candidates with the topics that most worry the Portuguese, the respondents believe that Luís Montenegro will pay more attention to topics such as justice (39.4%), housing (36.4%), National Health Service (40.1%), safety – by a crushing majority of 53% – middle class (45.7%), taxes (46%), war in Ukraine (32%), young people (42.7%), immigration (48.2%), defense (53.3%) and European Union (41.5%). Pedro Nuno Santos is seen as someone who will be more concerned with the most disadvantaged (41.1%), Social Security (38.1%), environmental issues (30.9%), the elderly (37.3%), social inequalities (43.1%) and pensioners (40.1%).

The problems of the country health, housing and immigration

Health and housing remain the topics that most worry the Portuguese. However, immigration now stands out in the list: it increased by 9%.

Health continues to be at the top of the Portuguese’s concerns, despite a slight descent over the first half of April: 48.2% of responding in the Consulmark2 poll for the Sunrise and the Euronews pointed out the state of the National Health Service as a priority theme. As in the last two polls, housing is the second issue that most concerns the Portuguese and the number of respondents who claim to be restless about the theme have grown: 28.3% in March, it rose to 39.3% in the first half of April and 43.4% in the latest poll. During this period, Eurostat released Portugal was one of the countries of the European Union where the price of houses has grown in the last decade.

However, in this poll, there was a concern that registered a rise above all the others: immigration. In response to the question “What are you for the most serious problems with which Portugal discusses today?” In which they could give several answers, 20% of respondents pointed to immigration compared to the 11.1% who said they were concerned about the theme in the first half of April. It is not known if this increase is related to the recent news of involvement of a Brazilian immigrant in the murder of a young man in Braga. Concern about immigration has exceeded even topics such as education/education (19.9%), inflation/cost of living (17.8%), corruption (10.4%) and economic development, although the latter has increased from 9.8%to 16.2%.

Presidential. Gouveia and Melo leads outstanding

If the presidential elections were held next Sunday, Henrique Gouveia and Melo would be the favorite of the Portuguese to succeed Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa. Confronted with a list of 11 candidates and potential presidential candidates, 29% expressed their preference for the Admiral. Secondly, highlighted with 16.9%, Luís Marques Mendes, a candidate supported by the PSD who has already presented his candidacy for Belém and has been campaigning around the country. André Ventura (6.5%) comes in third.

In the socialist field, António José Seguro and António Vitorino collect similar preferences. The first gathers 6.3% of voting intentions against 5.6% of the second. However, when asked which one prefers to the socialist party’s candidate, the former secretary-general collects the preferences of 41.7% of respondents against 29.5% of the former director of the International Organization for migrations.

On the right, there is also a highlight for Paulo Portas, which also gets 5.6% of voting intentions. However, when asked who AD should support, if Marques Mendes or Paulo Portas, the overwhelming majority of respondents in this Consulmark2 poll for the Sunrise and the Euronews Prefers the former PSD leader: 54.1%. A total of 15.5% of respondents remain undecided.

Technical file
Opinion study on the current social and political situation in Portugal, conducted by Consulmark2, market studies and fieldwork, LDA for the newspaper Nascer do Sol/Euronews.
Universe: Individuals over 18 residents in Portugal. Quota sampling by gender, age and region variables, based on censuses 2021.
The sample had 569 effective interviews: 282 men and 287 women; 122 Between 18 and 34 years, 304 between 35 and 64 years and 143 for 65 and more years; North 190, Center 95, West and Tagus Valley 38, Greater Lisbon 118, Setúbal Peninsula 44, Alentejo 28, Algarve 27, RA Azores 13 and RA Madeira 16.
Technique: Telephone Interviews (CATI).
Dates of field work: took place between April 14 and 22, 2025.
Answer Rate: 52.3%.
Maximum sampling error for a 95%confidence interval: + 4.1%.
Study Responsibility: Consulmark2, Market Studies and Field Work, LDA, under the technical direction of José Constantino Costa.
In “The Vote”, the percentage of NS/NR/Refuses distributed arithmetically is 20.2%.