Political drama is threatening as the Senate Chamber for the first time since 1907 rejects a budget

Eddy Hartog, member of the Senate on behalf of Volt, has had a hard time with it in recent days. « I’m pretty emotional in this, » he says. Due to a strange coincidence, the two -headed group indirectly has the fate of a budget, that of foreign trade and development aid (BHOS), which the Senate votes this Tuesday. And that realization brings Hartog into conscience.

Hartog is with, as they call it in game theory, it Prisoner’s dilemma. Suppose two prisoners are suspected of a crime. If one prisoner accuses the other and the other is silent, then only the other will receive a ten -year in prison sentence. That one prisoner is then released. If they accuse each other, they both get a five -year prison sentence. If they both say nothing, they will receive a few months in prison. What is the best strategy? Reasoned from self -interest, you almost have to accuse the other person. But the most favorable outcome for the collective is silent.

I assume that this room is wise and approves the budget. If that unexpectedly doesn’t happen … I really don’t hope so

It is translated into the Senate: during the treatment of the Bhos budget, two weeks ago, the ChristenUnie submitted a motion that can soften part of the intended cutbacks of Minister Reinette Klever (PVV). The opposition hopes that with this motion it will remain with the 2.4 billion that had already been announced, because Klever also wants to cut down everyxtra by releasing a standard that links the expenditure on development aid to the size of the economy.

During the treatment of the budget in the Senate, the resistance was huge, certainly also from the Christian parties CDA, ChristenUnie and SGP. The ChristenUnie will vote against the budget, CDA and SGP threatened to do so if that norm – called the ‘link’ in The Hague Jargon – disappears.

Benevolence

This threatens great political drama: it would be for the first time since 1907 that the Senate rejects a budget. The coalition of PVV, VVD, NSC and BBB has only 30 of the 75 seats here, no majority. Every bill and every budget depends on the benevolence of opposition parties. And it was missing.

This situation can unintentionally change through a motion by Tineke Huizinga-Heringa, from the ChristenUnie. This motion ‘requests’ the cabinet to maintain the standard. The left opposition and the Christian parties immediately signed the motion. But to get a majority, the ChristenUnie needs the support of Volt.

This is the dilemma of Eddy Hartog: he is one with the motion, but he is against the entire budget. And if he votes for the motion and therefore gets a majority thanks to the Volt group, then CDA and SGP have an argument to help the entire budget to a majority. The pain of the cutbacks is softened, they can then say. And he doesn’t want that either.

In recent days, Huizinga-Heringa and Hartog have been in contact. She has adjusted the text to get the two voices from Volt. It now states that the request preferably applies this year, otherwise next year. Volt wanted that.

Volt is still for and Huizinga-Heringa has a majority. Hartog: « I intended to vote against the pressure on the budget. It is not solidarity, not fair. Actually you should not offer the government such a way out. But I also don’t want to work against every prize. There was much disappointment in the opposition that we did not participate. »

‘Lives’

Minister Klever’s budget is now safe. CDA and SGP will vote for. The ChristenUnie votes against. In the CDA it is said that it was not just about this motion – although they acknowledge that maintaining the norm weighs very heavily.

Klever did not want to make any promise about maintaining the link. She also threatened during the debate with major consequences, the Senate was allowed to vote the budget away. « That costs human lives. »

This is Eddy Hartog’s dilemma: he is one with the motion, but he is against the entire budget

Klever said that she cannot start a new policy with a rejected budget. « I assume that this room is wise and approves the budget. If that does not happen … I really don’t hope so. »

A lot of debate

The Senate is in a new situation and has a hard time with that. In previous years, the cabinet budgets were usually hammer pieces: the House of Representatives debated, the Senate took them without a problem. But the budgets of the Cabinet Schoof lead to a lot of debate. This Tuesday the Chamber must vote on two budgets, those of Bhos and asylum and migration. Minister Eppo Bruins (Education, NSC) awaits a serious debate about his budget.

But no matter how critical most of the Senate is, she does not know what she will do when she rejects a budget. That makes parties – certainly CDA and SGP – careful. During suspensions, senators visited each other a lot in recent weeks. Some asked who knew about constitutional law, and who could tell what happens if a budget is rejected: does the old budget of the previous year, or may a minister be allowed to do anything anymore?

The Senate will therefore probably ask the Council of State for information about constitutional law this Tuesday. Some opposition parties would prefer to postpone the recurring moods about budgets until they have had that information.

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