Polish election arithmetic promises a nationalist victory and is good news for Lithuania

In the first round they finished with almost the same results: the Mayor of Warsaw R. Tzaskowski scored 31.36 percent and historian K. Nawrocki was 29.54. It may seem that this promises great intrigue in the second round, but according to Andžej Pukštas, a political scientist at Vytautas Magnus University, although the candidates are likely to be really struggling with « on the verge », the numbers promise the right -wing « law and justice » (PIS) for a candidate. Slawomir Mentzen, the candidate of the Confederation, scored 14.81 percent, and Grzegorz Brown, 6.34 %, was considered to be more radical. votes. Three Liberals and Left Candidates, lined up below, cannot boast as many as 15.

In the light of the first round of elections, most of the Lithuanian media were echoed by Western European counterparts, who were constantly repeating that the centrist (or liberal) R. Tzaskowski and nationalist K. Nawrockis were competing in this election. At least for some of the audiences, it shaped the image that the first is a « good man » and the second the « bad guy ». However, the experience of the Lithuanian -Polish bilateral relations shows that we have always been better off talking when the right -wing (nationalists) in Warsaw in power, of which we received more attention on issues we care about. In the eyes of the Centrist – Liberals, Vilnius is just too small to be considered a serious partner. All their attention goes to « big boys » – Brussels, Berlin and Paris. At that time, a good partnership with the right is confirmed by the great relationship between Gitan Nauseda and the term of his term of office and Andrzej Duda. According to A. Pukštas, the likelihood of continuity of such relationships was higher if Nawrocki was defeated in the Polish elections.

The numbers are unequivocally saying that K. Nawrockis has better opportunities, as the total result of right -wing and extreme right outperforms the sum of the centrist and left -wing votes.

– The main rivals go to the second round, which means they need to gather the voices of the losing candidates. Which one is it better?

– The numbers are unequivocally saying that K. Nawrocki has better opportunities, because the overall result of the right and extreme right outperforms the sum of the centrist and left -wing votes. Using elementary arithmetic, we can see that the latter gather up to 40 percent together and the first to be about 60. The 15th -ranked 15th -out of the third place can be a strong pis candidate.

– Will the extreme right -wing voters go to vote for Nawrocki? They can ignore the second round. Also, will the extreme right support will not force this candidate to turn some of its more moderate voters?

– Probably, Nawrocki will be more beneficial in any case than harm. The « residual » votes now share about 30 percent. In favor of Nawrocki. Of course, some of those 30 percent. It will stay at home, but not all.

Andejus Pukštas/Personal Arch. Photo by

– S. Mentzen, a candidate for Confederations, appeared surprisingly well. How does this radicals regarding the political movement attract Polish voters?

– « Confederation » is such a confusion that its examination is generally a separate topic. It is not a party, but a union of many different political groups. In Lithuania, by the way, we have not had anything like that and probably better not to. Mentzen shaken in one nationalism, Eurosperse and added a high dose of liberalism. This trend is noticeable in many countries: classical political directions are melting, and instead offered to do not understand how to shake cocktails of political ideologies. Suppose Mentzen was not just about nationalists – many people liked his ideas for tax reduction and economic liberalization. We can probably say that « Confederation » has offered a populist mix you like to many. By the way, many young people voted for it.

Judging by the presidency of Duda, Nawrocki, who is likely to continue the line of partnerships with smaller countries in the region, would probably be more favorable to us.

– What will the Confederation from Nawrocki require for support and can he agree with those claims?

– There are many requirements – as many as eight points. Mr Nawrocki has already said he agrees (at least with many), and Mr Tzaskowski, who, by the way, made the same requirements, said he had to consider them. O The Confederation Requirements are as follows: 1) The President will not sign any law that increases taxes and contributions; 2) will not sign any law that limits the functioning of cash and zloty; restrictions on the use of weaponry;

– Current rulers like to emphasize that the opposition president would probably paralyze the government’s work. And what would they take first if R. Tzaskowski won?

– First of all, speeches about paralysis are exaggerated. The Polish president does not have as much power as the French leader. In this respect, the Polish system is more similar to that of Lithuania.

As for the most important goals, I think the ruling would first seek to cancel the judicial reform, from the court council to the mechanism of the Supreme Court. It would probably take the national broadcaster, though they have already done everything there for their own benefit. Perhaps some social matters and taxes. Also an abortion issue.

After the first round, the caricature created by K. Nawrocki’s supporters allows you to understand why many Polish politicians are choosing nationalists.

– You have repeatedly stated that the Polish right -wing authorities have repeatedly stated that Lithuania is traditionally more favorable. Is the same applies to Mr Trzaskowski with K. Nawrocki?

– Judging by Duda’s presidency would probably be more favorable to us by Nawrocki, who is likely to continue the line of partnerships with smaller countries in the region.

– The ruling ruling shows strong sympathy for Western Europe. Can their representative at the Presidential Palace for the Solidarity of European Solidarity to sacrifice Warsaw -Washington’s relationship?

– I think no. Foreign Minister Radoslaw Sikorski likes to emphasize good relations with the US Republicans. The Poles will not damage the relationship with Donald Trump, because Warsaw Americans are very important. R. Sikorski and Donald Tusk understand this.

By the way, Nawrocki is actively trying to use this moment. Let his meeting with Mr Trump took a few minutes, but in Poland it was very advertised. In addition, there is a chance that US Vice President JD Vance and Nawrocki will certainly try to exploit this visit on the eve of the second round.