Polish analyst: you hardly persuade voters of the far right if you have attacked them for months
Trzaskowski was too progressive, says.
The liberal mayor of Warsaw also wanted to enjoy the presidential campaign by conservative and extreme right -wing voters, but he was little authentic. New Polish President Karol Nawrocki can now the government Donald Tusk Complicating governance and getting them in an unpleasant position, says political scientist and sociologist from the University of Education (UKEN) in Krakow Radosław Marzęcki.
Was these elections a referendum on Donald Tusk’s government and were issued by voters a red card?
Exactly, Nawrocki has successfully transformed the choices to referendum about the results of the government over the past nineteen months. His team saw that the public’s mood was getting worse that the government could not achieve success or could not communicate adequately. For example, the government has no spokesperson to this day. The coalition was unable to agree on small questions and presented the differences on social networks and in traditional media. I feel that some coalition parties wanted to differentiate themselves. But voters of government parties are usually more demanding than voters of opposition parties who are applying for power. Coalition leaders apparently are not aware of this.
Since all the coalition parties of Trzaskowski supported, their result is certainly a red card for the government of Donald Tusk, because it makes it impossible to function for the next two years. The government still supports 32 percent of Poles, but a negative attitude is 44 percent. This follows, in particular, that they fulfill the electoral promises of 2023 too slowly.
Why failed to mobilize enough voters? How do you evaluate his campaign?
It was a very schematic campaign, full of mistakes and lack of ideas at key moments. At the same time, I would say that it was a very sharp, even brutal campaign, but the greatest criticism of Karol Nawrocký came from journalists who tried to describe not quite clear affairs from his past. Instead of being devoted to his own positive program, the Trzaskowski crew was based primarily on the media criticism of Nawrock. It gave the impression that he had no own, original and creative ideas in the campaign.
So what did he do?
Initially, he tried to enjoy more conservative or right -wing voters, which weakened his credibility, especially when you compare it to his passing statements or steps as the mayor of Warsaw. He also cope with television debates, his performances were perceived as too general, insincere and artificial.
Young voters in the first round significantly supported the far right -wing Slawomir Mentzen, in the second round the same voices went to Nawrocký. Wasn’t it naive to think that Trzaskowski can also reach this group?
Trzaskowski had only very limited possibilities to convince Mentzen’s voters, especially for the attitudes of the government parties to the Confederation and Mentzen himself. It is difficult to change your image in a short time in front of the voters you have been attacking heavily until then. It is simply non -authored. TRZASKOWSKI also did not use arguments that could appeal to the liberal-economically set voters of the Confederation.
He did not hurt him prostitutes or dubious apartment. Who is the new Polish President Nawrocki? Read
But he did not convince most young voters under 29.
In the past, he has been working with them successfully, organizing meetings and discussions on politics called Campus Polska Pozyszłości (Kampus Poland of the Future), but neglected during the campaign of his staff of the young voters. In addition, young people are increasingly frustrated and disappointed with the new government – they are not responding to high housing prices, for example. It is therefore no coincidence that in the first round they supported Mentzen from the extreme right -wing Confederation and Adrian Zandberg from the bright left side Razem. Both questioned the current political order in Poland. However, the Trzaskowski crew did not understand this phenomenon.
Rafal Trzaskowski lost the second presidential election in a row. Will it be an end to him in the top Polish politics?
It depends on his political party. Commentators, political scientists and sociologists have long pointed out that in the context of the current campaign, the international situation and, given the conservative Polish society, Trzaskowski is not the best candidate from the civil coalition. Trzaskowski represents a liberal, progressive and pro -European worldview, only to a lesser extent distanced himself from immigrants from Ukraine.
It was elected by party members in primary schools and Prime Minister Tusk knew that he had more support than the more conservative Foreign Minister Radosław Sikorski. Now, however, it is difficult to find a charismatic politician except Sikorský in the civic coalition. The party will thus face a great challenge whether it will maintain coherence and how to cope with the wrong decisions in the presidential election.
What do these elections mean to Donald Tusk’s government? Do you think early elections can also be threatened if conflicts in the coalition deepen?
Karol Nawrocki will certainly be a very active president in relation to the Tusk government. In Poland, the government and the president have a strong social mandate. He can veto the laws, to pass them on to the Constitutional Court, but it can also propose them. During the campaign, Nawrocki has stressed several times that he would want to influence the government to fulfill its electoral promises faster, whether they are projects associated with large public spending or the question of the non -taxable part of the tax base.
Thus, Nawrocki can prevent the government from being effective and its own laws can put it in a very difficult situation. Whether this can lead to early elections is difficult to say, but if the government does not know how to promote its promises, it can deepen the coalition conflicts.
Nawrocki is pro -American and critical to Russia, but also more skeptical about the EU. What will his victory mean at European level? Can it inspire other nationalist and conservative politicians in Europe?
Nawrocki will certainly represent opinions that are contrary to the main stream of European policy. Rather, it will create alliances with Hungary or Slovakia. However, the government continues to be responsible for foreign policy, which, according to the Constitution, should cooperate with the President. I expect many new conflicts that will be more intense than in the current relationships with President Andrzej Dud.
Does it inspire other politicians in Europe? This probably depends on local conditions. The result of the elections in Romania, which is different from what we now see in Poland, could have been an inspiration.
