Poland. The game of all or nothing

This Sunday, the Polacos will dictate who will be the successor of Andrzej Duda as president of the Republic. After a first lap reigned on May 18, Rafal Trzaskowski and Karol Nawrocki will now be front-to-front, and some variables resulting from the last vote may hang the balance.

Trzaskowski, from the same party as the current Prime Minister Donald Tusk, the Civic Platform, won with 31.4% of the votes, winning only 1.9% than his direct opponent, which belongs to the law and justice, party of the incumbent president.

It was a result that did not correspond to the advance pointed out by the polls that gave an advantage of about 5% to the centrist candidate. Thus, Polish policy enters a whole new electoral game.

Slawomir Mentzen was the third most voted candidate with 14.8%, followed by Grzegorz Braun with 6.3%, Szymon Holownia with 5%, Adrian Zanberg with 4.9%and Magdalena Biejat with 4.2%. These are modest results compared to those of the two main candidates and that leave them excluded from a second round. However, they are not irrelevant. As Donald Tusk wrote in his official X account, “The game of everything is just starting. A fight lasts for each vote. These two weeks will decide the future of our country. So not a step back.

In a second electoral lap, the transfer of votes from the eliminated candidates will determine the final winner, and these numbers may eventually give Nawrockki victory. But why?

As the political newspaper noted, « the parties that oppose the government of Prime Minister Donald Tusk had better performance than those who support him, » a conjuncture that naturally creates « a problem for Rafal Trzaskowski. » Let’s look at the candidates and the supports that may be decisive.

The key mentzen

The most important number is that of Mentzen’s National-Populist-Populist Party, the most voted of the rest. With 14.8% of the votes, the candidate who gets his support will be with a foot and a half in the presidential palace, and it would be expected that his support be given to Nawrockki. The latter promptly launched an appeal to Mentzen on the election night: “I want to address one of the candidates, Slawomir Mentzen. This is the time to save Poland. We both want a sovereign, strong, rich and secure Poland.

Still, Mentzen did not declare support to any candidate. The Confederation candidate said, quoted by TVP World, that he sees no reason to vote for Rafal Trzaskowski. Also, I don’t like the way it dodges in many interviews. He is terribly slippery, ”but raises questions about Nawrockki’s credibility: » Nawrocki has some credibility problems … I am not sure that what he says about his past is true and sometimes I am almost sure that it is not true.  » These suspicions about the law and justice candidate did not prevent him, according to the Polish news agency, from praising Nawrockki.

«Vote in what is closest to you, because otherwise it can be even worse. I think I helped you the more I could. The rest is in your hands, ”Mentzen said in a video posted on his YouTube channel. Not being official support, it will be natural that most voters who have chosen Mentzen transfer their vote to what is closest ideologically, namely Nawrockki. However, the lack of formal support can cause the transfer to be reduced.

Weapon brothers

The voters of the candidates belonging to the parties that make up the government of Tusk, Holownia and Biejat coalition-the first of center right and the second left-apparently, will vote for Trzaskowski on the second round. Biejat made public support two days after the elections, a gesture that the most voted candidate thanked: “I want to thank Magdalena Biejat and left for his support on the second lap of the presidential elections. This is an expression of responsibility, courage and common concern with the future of Poland, a just, modern and solidarity Poland.

The current Mayor of Warsaw has also promised some codes towards the left program: “I also promise that, under my sponsorship, in cooperation with coalition partners, we will begin a real reform of the health financing system, and the left proposals will certainly be an important contribution to this change. We need a reform based on equity, accessibility, quality services, and working conditions worthy for staff. «They are not simple decisions, but they are necessary decisions. The voice of the left -wing voters cannot be ignored, ”he added.

Also Holownia has already declared the official support to Trzaskowski, who thanked him for the « unequivocal support ».

Emotion until the end

Still, these votes should not be enough to defeat Nawrocki if he gets Mentzen’s support. And the excluded candidate who misses, Grzegorz Braun-who, as the politician reports is an « far-right anti-Semitic candidate better known for using a fire extinguisher to put out a Jewish chandelier in the Polish parliament »-is also important, and he obtained 6.3% of the votes and his support for Trzaskowski is highly unlikely.

Adding the possible support directly, Trzaskowski, with the 4.9% of Zanberg, from conservatives-liberals, would get 45.5% of the votes, less 5.1% than his opponent. Since the transfer of votes rarely materializes so directly, these numbers are still a valuable indicator that helps to predict possible results.

Aware of the intense dispute that awaited him, Trzaskowski gave a speech on the electoral night that was marked by prudence. « He told you for eight months that it was going to be very remedy-and it is remedy, » said the most voted candidate on the first lap. Still, it has not let optimism fade: “This result shows how strong and determined to win the presidential elections (…) we are in the final stretch. Let’s win ».

Nawrocki, of course, maintains hope and, after the closing of the polls, thanked the voters « from the bottom of the heart » and concluded with the message « to Victory ».

That said, the elections that will dictate Poland’s next head of state will be played until the last vote. Trzaskowski narrowly remains ahead in the polls, but, as seen, the support of the excluded seems to favor more Nawrockki.