Poland chooses from two options: restoring the rule of law or a fight between the government and president

The choice for Polish voters is clear this Sunday: either reforms or more of the polarization that the country has been making political lamb for a year and a half. Does the independent rule of law return to Poland or does the president continue to block all attempts to restore them? To that question on Sunday, an answer comes when Poland go to the polls in the second round of their presidential elections.

In an exciting neck-and-neck race, the battle between the liberal mayor of Warsaw, Rafal Trzaskowski (53) and the historian and museum director Karol Nawrocki (42). Trzaskowski, supported by the current coalition led by Prime Minister Donald Tusk and his party Citizen Platform (KO), was the towering favorite to win the presidency for months. But the previously unknown Namrocki, pushed forward by the National Conservative Party Law and Justice (PIS), did well in the campaign unexpectedly.

During the first round, two weeks ago, Trzaskowski received 31 percent of the votes against 29 percent for Nawrocki. In the polls the two candidates go right and there is no clear favorite.

The success of Nawrocki did not suffer from the various scandals that came out over him in recent weeks. First he came discourse Because of the absenteeism of an apartment of a pensioner-in exchange for informal care, who never received the 81-year-old man. Then it came to light that in the past the amateur boxer participated in street fights with hooligans and as a security guard of a luxury hotel introduced sex workers to guests. But those allegations made little impression on his electorate.

Promises from Tusk

Trzaskowski has the disadvantage that he is seen as the candidate of the current government of Prime Minister Tusk. At the end of 2023 this coalition came to power and promised his voters to reform the country after two PIS governments in eight years (2015-2023) managed to dismantle the Polish independent constitutional state. Tusk promised independent judges, relaxation of abortion legislation, far -reaching climate measures and partner registrations for LGBTI people. But the government did not make these promises.

That is largely due to the role of the president, who can veto laws. Almost all Tusk government was stopped by the current President Andrzej Duda, a piss-loyalist. Trzaskowski promised that he will help the Tusk government to resolve its promises, while it is expected that Nawrocki will not sign any law.

Trzaskowski wins, Poland could take steps to restore the independent constitutional state. Nawrocki wins, then that can lead to a political crisis with probably new parliamentary elections. The radical-right party Konfederacja in particular would benefit from this, whose candidate Slawomir Mentzen did remarkably well in the first round of the presidential elections.

Leading role in Europe

Also in Brussels and the rest of the world the result in Poland is tensioned. Under the PIS governments, the European Union regularly tapped the Poles for the breaking of the independent constitutional state. About 100 billion euros in EU subsidies was blocked. That cash flow, under the leadership of Tusk thanks to his pro-democratic course, largely started again. Moreover, Tusk tries to play a leading role in Europe when it comes to Defense and Ukraine-this month he appeared in Kyiv with the leaders of France, Germany and Great Britain.

On the other hand, the world of US President Donald Trump hopes that Nawrocki will win. During an international conference of Conservatives (CPAC) in Rzeszów, Poland, this week, the American Minister of Interior Security Kristi spoke for him and Trzaskowski called a « absolute wreck as a leader ». Earlier, PIS candidate Nawrocki was allowed to take a picture with Trump in the White House. Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán also expressed his support for Nawrocki. Loses Nawrocki, then that is the next blow to the international Maga movement. Last week their favorite candidate, the ultra -nationalist George Simion, lost the battle for Romanian presidency.

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