Poland chooses a pre -chair and the bet on Donald Tusk is high, and for Europe, even more so
Poland will hold the first round of the May 18 presidential election in a vote, which is crucial to the hopes of the Donald Tusk pro -European government to implement its reformist program. The bet is not only for him.
There is a chance of a very contested run-off and if it with the support of nationalists defeated the Eurosceptic candidate « law and justice » (PIS) it is logical for Warsaw to withdraw (or to be kept further) than the EU policy nucleus. The revival of the Weimar Triangle (Germany-France-Poland) and the conversion of the E3 (Germany-France-Education) into the E4 (adding Poland), as the new group of countries leading to security and defense issues will be paused.
From a defeat of the Pro -European Forces, the hope of the 2023 elections and the record -breaking of the 1989 electoral activity, read as an example that authoritarian trends in Central Europe, can still be interrupted by the power newsletter in the ballot, will also be overwhelmed. The Polish example of countries such as Hungary, Slovakia and others will be in question.
Reuters summarized the expectations in the title « Poland chooses between pro-EU or maga path forward », which is a slightly exaggerated thickening of the shades.
The election opposes the Liberal Mayor of Warsaw Rafal Trezhaskovsky (33.7% According to IBRIS Summary, published on May 14) and a senior member of the ruling Civil Platform Party (PO), against a historian nationalist Carol Narotsky (21.6%), which has led the Polish Institute of National Memory from the time of PIS.
Where will the scales lean then depend on the far -right Slavomir Menzen (11.8%) of the far right « Confederation » and the chairman of the lower house of the Polish Parliament – Shimon living room (7.1%) of one of the centrist groups in the ruling coalition, which has previously been a journalist and television presenter and is popular on social networks with the jokes with which he runs MPs.
- The candidates are 13 in total.
- About 29 million people have the right to vote.
- The polling stations open at 7 am (8 Bulgarian time) and close at 9 pm.
- Exit Paul Data will be published shortly after the end of the vote. Partial results will appear all night on Sunday and Monday.
- If no candidate receives more than 50% in the first round, a run-off will be held on June 1st, between the two most supportive contenders.
- Presidents can serve a maximum of two 5 years of terms.
- Andrzej Duda’s second term ends on August 6th.
Prime Minister Donald Tusk’s coalition came to power in 2023, promising to repeal the judicial reforms of the previous PIS government, which, according to critics, including the European Commission and the European Parliament, undermine the rule of law.
However, his efforts for decisive reforms have been hindered by the former ally of the Nationalist Party PIS – President Andrzej Duda, who has the authority to veto legislation. In Poland, overcoming a presidential veto requires the collection of a very large share of MPs – three fifths, and with a strong confrontation with the head of state (for example, for the budget) it can block parliament and cause elections. Therefore, the prime minister was cautious not to give, including on the international scene, to be criticized at home and to cost him a loss of Tzhakovsky in the presidential election.
| « The election bet is high for Tusk and the Civic Platform Party and will determine the political future of Poland. Trzhakovski has a good chance of becoming the next president because no survey has predicted a defeat on the second round, » said Pavel Buras, head of the European Bureau of the European Council in VARA. « Trjakovski’s victory is crucial to Tusk’s political project and the protection of liberal democracy in Poland, » he adds. |
The Mayor of Warsaw since 2018 has been defeated by a small difference from the 2020 presidential election. His main proposals include an increase in defense costs up to 5% of GDP, liberalization of abortion laws and the development of the Polish arms and technology industry, as well as ensuring a strong position for Poland in the European Union.
The 42-year-old conservative historian Narotsky wants to see lower taxes, withdrawal from the European Union’s migration pact and the green transaction and is critical of the granting of more LGBT couples. Like Tzhaskovski, he wants to separate 5% of GDP for defense.
| « Narotsky plays Trump’s card in the campaign, posing as a heir to Duda, whose close relationship with the US president are well known, » Buras said. « PIS has accused Tusk of putting Poland’s close relationships with the US, focusing too much on European partners. » |
The main risk to Truzhaskovsky is that at the moment, right -wing PIS and Confederation could form a government if the elections for the parliament were now, « he added. » If he succeeds, the mayor of Warsaw would win despite the dominant emotions in the society and the low percentage of Tusk approval. «
Piotr Buras believes that « a lot will depend on the mobilization of voters and the campaign dynamics in the last two weeks of May. »
| « If the far right manages to consolidate and overcome its divisions, the final results may be much closer to each other than the current studies show. » |
Slavomir Menzen runs a tax consultation company and is a fierce critic of government regulations. This is one of the harker’s features of the Confederation – young and successful businessmen, but very strong nationalists and traditionalists. His key proposals include significant tax breaks, withdrawal from the European Green Deal, and opposing more LGBT rights.
He believes that Poland should avoid taking over -military or financial responsibility in the war between Ukraine and Russia. Menzen wants to prioritize Poland’s sovereignty, ensuring that her constitution has an advantage over EU laws.
The crossroads of the EU or MAGA directions, described by Reuters, is Predi that both Carol Narotsky and Slavomir Menzen are fans of Trump, with his movement « Make America again the Great », as well as their anti -immigrant position and a crusade against « Woke liberal values ».
The election coincides with the run -off of the Romanian presidential election, where the far -right fan of Trump, George Simion, is a favorite for winning the backdrop of a wave of nationalism in Central Europe, ignited by fears due to costs of life, migration and security threats from Russia.
In Poland, Truzhaskovsky, a candidate of the left-handed formation, it seems likely to defeat its nationalist rivals, ranked second and third in support, partly thanks to their shift to the right in an attempt to win more conservative votes.
| « The bet of these elections is as high as it was on October 15, 2023, » Tusk said in parliament last month. « So I hope for mobilization … It is difficult to run alongside a hostile president, with all these cases of veto. » |
Truzhaski, Narotsky and Menzen advertise their qualities as wartime leaders, describes « Reuters »
All three promise to continue to support Kiev military, but differ in how much help should be refugees from Ukraine. Narotsky and Menzen also oppose Ukraine’s membership in NATO and emphasize that Poland’s interests are on the side of Washington, while Truzhaskovsky is looking for a bigger role in the EU in dealing with the conflict and security protection of Europe.
| « We support Ukraine … in its efforts to defeat post -Soviet Russia. This is obvious, » Narotsky said during a television debate on Monday. « In Poland’s strategic interest, it is to repel the neo -immuristic threat from Russia. » « As a president … I will build the Polish-American Union and I will not agree to become a NATO substitute. » |
Supporting Trump’s language and using the increasing fatigue among voters, Narotsky and Menzen say that the interests of ethnic Poles should take precedence over those of Ukrainian refugees « they come from Ukraine, register to doctors, extend the queues, and then go home. We pay for medical tourism. »
Despite the good lead over Narotsky, Truzhaskovs can make it difficult to run, say political observers. The son of a jazz musician, the mayor had problems attracting voters to rural areas, where Narotsky is often perceived as a person who better understands their high costs for life and opposing migration.
However, support for Narotsky has fallen in recent weeks against the backdrop of allegations that he lied in his statement of wealth and hid an apartment he acquired from a vulnerable retiree.
| According to Marta Pokhvich, deputy head of the Warsaw office of the ESSC « The victory of Truzhaskovsky will not only allow the Tusk government to apply blocked judicial reforms, but also potentially destabilize PIS internally. Breaks. |
She adds that the result of the election can have deep consequences for Europe.
« The victory of Truzhaskov would consolidate Poland’s position as a rising European force, engaged in strengthening the EU integration, defense and regional stability cooperation. Conversely, Narotsky’s victory would significantly limit the European commitment of East.
Although Poland’s pro -American position and support for Ukraine will be preserved, however, the election will determine fundamentally whether Poland will become an engaged European player or remain partially detached from the European project, she adds.
