Pension, will we really go later? Social security expenditure will grow for another 18 years: that’s why

The expenditure for pensions in Italy will continue to grow for another 18 years, Up to 2043and this despite the loved reforms, dini and the anchor in office Fornerowho had tried to stem her. It is a fact that leaves no room for interpretations: the weight of the social security system on the state coffers will increase (see graphic above) and the coup de grace seems to have arrived with the reform «Quota 100», Launched by the yellow -green government on the great push of Matteo Salvini, who made the sustainability of the system even more complicated in the long run.

The data of the state accounting

The latest update of the state accounting accounting on the performance of the pension expenditure explains that, however, even after 2043, when a turnaround is finally expected with a descent of expenses, the costs of the social security system will remain high. And if the reforms that have followed each other since 1992 to today have not been able to solve the problem, even the present of politics seems more concentrated on short -term measures than in trying to solve the problem of system sustainability in the coming decades.

The government storms on the increase in retirement age

In the meantime, politics is focusing on short -term measures to avoid painful and unpopular solutions, as if in case of the adaptation to life expectancy of the retirement age (which should increase at 67 years and three months in the coming months). Actually, Starting from 2027, the law provides for an increase in three -month retirement age based on the increase in life expectancy. However, to avoid the risk of losing electoral consensus, The government has already led out that this measure will probably be « sterilized», With the intent to postpone it to the next legislature.

5 million less workers by 2040

In the context of a public debt that has exceeded 145% of GDP and with economic growth that this year is expected to remain below 1%, pension expenditure represents a difficult burden. The side effects are also visible in the key sectors of the economy, such as tourism and buildings, where manpower deficiency is now a daily reality. Istat forecasts estimate that by 2040 the number of active workers in Italy will decrease by 5 million, leading to a deficiency of workforce that could undermine the country’s economic growth.

Immigration

In this scenario, the question of immigration, traditionally seen as a separate question, inevitably intertwines with the social security one. Italy needs young and qualified labor, but the current regulatory system, in particular the Bossi-Fini law, has proved to be an insurmountable obstacle for the entry of foreign workers. Although the government has approved a flow decree in 2023 which allows the entry of 450 thousand regular immigrants in the three-year period 2024-2026, the reality is that the system is collapsing. In 2023, only 9,528 regular workers obtained a residence permit against over 127 thousand places available. The bureaucratic difficulties, particularly in the selection phases in the consulates and offices seen, have drastically reduced the number of questions that are successfully concluded.

Delrio’s proposal

The solution proposed by Graziano Delrio, former minister and today president of the bicameral commission on immigration, focuses on a simplification of the procedures, adopting models such as those used in Canada and Australia, with the use of a sponsorship system of companies in search of labor. This approach could be the key to unlocking an impasse that risks becoming unsustainable for the Italian economy.