Out mortality by flu at the highest level in seven years: more than 2,500 more people died than expected

In recent months, more than 2,500 people have died more on the flu than expected. The excess of 10.8 percent shows how heavy the flu season was this year, and is still. « But I expect that the epidemic will be over within two weeks, » says Virologist Steven van Gucht of Sciensano.

Since the start of the flu epidemic on December 9, 26,363 people have died of that virus in our country, and that is 2,561 more than expected. That means an excess of 10.8 percent. Especially among the over-85s, the excess mortality is high: 1,612 people died more than expected. In the age group between 65 and 84 there were 719 more and in people up to and including 64 there were 224 extra deaths. This is according to figures from the Sciensano Health Institute.

According to Steven van Gucht, virologist at Sciensano, the explanation is not far away. “We just had a lot of flu. The epidemic started in December and we have been busy for two months now, almost three even. That is a very long flu season with a very high peak. So a lot of virus has circulated, which means that there were also more serious infections and more deaths.  »

“The epidemic started in December and we have been working for two months now, almost three even. That is a very long flu season with a very high peak ”

Steven Van Gucht

Virologist

But, Van Gucht emphasizes, these figures are not exceptional either. « We have seen an excess of up to 3,000, for example in 2017 and 2018. » Then the excess was 12.1 percent (2018) and 17.7 percent (2017). « Because of Covid there was also sensitive more excess mortality, but because of the flu it was already seven years ago, » said the virologist.

Virologist Marc van Ranst is also talking about a « particularly heavy flu season ». “Certainly if you compare this with previous years. Yet this was not highly exceptional either. In the early 2000s we had even higher figures. In the period after Covid this remains the highest figure.  » Van Ranst was relieved that there was hardly any Covid circulating this winter, otherwise the pressure on healthcare would have been much greater.

“In the early 2000s we had even higher figures. In the period after Covid, this remains the highest figure ”

Marc Van Ranst

Virologist

Underestimated

For many people who got hold of the flu in recent months, the conviction lived that they were worse because of other years. That is not possible, says Van Gucht. “What is true is that people often underestimate the flu. If they have a cold, they think they are a flu to have. But that is not the case. If you have the flu, then you are longer out of struggle than a few days and the impact can take a little longer. The real flu continues to be a moment. « 

Preliminary figures

How does Van Gucht explain that this year so much more flu virus was circulating than last year? “That's hard to say. It often happens that two mild seasons are followed by a heavy flu season, so it may be something cyclical. It can also be through a new variant, although this is not the case here according to our data. The vaccine also corresponded fairly well to the circulating variant. If I speculate for a moment: it could be that the flu has been given some free play because we have seen few cases of Covid this winter. ”

The virologist from Sciensano does emphasize that it concerns provisional figures, measured until 16 February. “Perhaps within two weeks, when I think the epidemic will be over, we will have the final figures. So that over mortality will rise a bit. «