Only an industrial country according to the IMF forecast this year in recession: Austria-Diepresse.com
The IMF lowers its forecast for the global economy. The trade war of US President Trump is burdening the economy, especially in the United States. However, the United States remain away from a recession. Austria stands out as a growth in the growth.
Do the United States plunge into a recession? That was one of the determining questions in the run -up to the latest World Economic Outlook, which the International Monetary Fund (IMF) published on Tuesday. The answer: no. Even if the IMF revised the growth forecast for the United States by 0.9 percentage points, the economists of the Washington institution expect the economic output of the USA this year. The euro zone should therefore grow by 0.8 percent instead of one percent, the world’s industrialized countries by 1.4 percent. The IMF also predicts a recession for the current year in view of the customs war, which US President Donald Trump runs against the rest of the world, only one industrial country.
The corrections compared to the IMF Jänner forecast are therefore considerable. But they are also risky. In other words, it can happen very differently than predicted. The new global economic forecast is a « reference forecast, » said IMF chief economist Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas on Tuesday. It takes into account all developments in the customs dispute until April 4. The forecast is therefore based on the currently exposed reciprocal tariffs and from even lower US tariffs to Chinese imports and Vice Versa. US tariffs on cars, steel and aluminum are included in the calculation. In this « reference scenario », global economic output in 2025 is growing by 2.8 percent and thus 0.5 percentage points weaker than at the beginning of the year.
Noticeable uncertainty
Although Gourinchas emphasized that the view would not really get better in scenarios with later days. Also in the scenario with a cut -off date on April 9, the day on which Trump has paused the reciprocal tariffs for all countries except China, the IMF predicts a global economic growth of 2.8 percent. However, the United States and China would grow weaker in this scenario than on April 4, other countries would sometimes grow stronger.
« We are entering a new era because the global economic system that has worked in the past 80 years has been re -established, » said Gourinchas, explaining that rapid escalation of trade voltages and the « extremely high » uncertainty about future politics would have significant effects on global economic activities.
Low horses weaken
The IMF also significantly corrected its forecasts for China, the country affected the most affected by the US tariffs. The second largest economy in the world after the United States should only grow by 4.0 percent each in 2025 and 2026. That is 0.6 and 0.5 points less than expected in January. India – in addition to China one of the draft horses in the global economy – should grow slower, but still above six percent. In the euro zone it should be 0.8 or 1.2 percent growth.
The German economy, which is so important for Austrian exporters, will stagnate in 2025 and grow more slowly than before. Austria GDP Will be shrinking by 0.3 percent this year and growing 0.8 percent in 2026, according to the IMF forecast. This makes Austria the only industrial country that the IMF predicts a recession this year. The Mexican GDP is also said to shrink by 0.3 percent.
Trump weakens USA
US President Trump does anything but a favor to his country with the trade war. Of the 0.9 percentage points that the United States grow less this year than in January, 0.4 percentage points are a direct consequence of the tariffs, the other 0.5 percentage points are due to the increased uncertainty. And also to a general cooling of the US economy, which was driven by a very strong private consumption last year. Consumption decreased slightly at the turn of the year, which is also indicated by the IMF as a normalization to a more sustainable level.
For the United States, the trade war will trigger an offer shock that drives prices up and affects productivity, according to the IMF. For the trading partners, the higher tariffs will affect demand shock that affects production and prices. The IMF also distinguishes a way to more growth. The global growth prospects would improve immediately if the trading voltages calm down and the long -existing complaints about non -tariff obstacles and measures that have been disrupting are cleared out of some countries, according to the IMF.
Central banks asked
When asked about Trump’s aggressive tone of tone Jerome PowellHead of the US central bank (Fed), Gourinchas emphasized how important it was to maintain the independence of the central banks in order to maintain their credibility in the fight against inflation. As is well known, Trump wants to fire Powell because he does not follow his call for interest rate cuts. However, the IMF forecast shows that the inflation expectations in many industrialized countries exceed the goal of the respective central bank.
For example, market participants expected inflation in the United States more than 0.5 percentage points above the Fed’s two percent target in one year. Central banks must ensure that the inflation expectations do not get out of hand, said Gourinchas. At the moment, however, the IMF still assumes that inflation in the industrialized countries will continue to converge in the direction of two percent and only 2.2 percent will be in 2026.
