Only 1 mandate has been affected by 145,000 diaspora votes. Will the other 50,000 affect?

By Eduard Zaloshnja

There have been many expectations and many debates about the Diaspora votes, but 145,000 of them counted so far, for only 1 mandate have affected Vlora district. In the table below you can see how the mandates would have been divided without the votes of the diaspora – ie only with the votes of the voters here. It shows that in this case, the SP would have 82 seats, PD-Ashm 51, PSD 3, Lapaj-Shabani 1, Shehaj 2 and Qori 1.

The only change after the introduction of the Diaspora vote is the transfer of a DP mandate to the SP in Vlora district. But how much is expected to affect the 50,000 votes to be counted below, and that have come entirely from Greece?

Statistics There is a possibility that, similar to Vlora District, to move 1 mandate from PD to SP to Lezha District, where the difference between the two sides is narrow. But the probability is significantly lower than in Vlora.

Statistically there is a possibility that in Tirana district will pass a mandate from Shehaj to the DP, but the probability rate of this passing depends on the campaign that Shehaj may have made in Greece. The main reason why Shehaj has maintained the second term so far is the relatively high percentage of votes coming from the sea. Whereas in the southern neighbors it has probably not been as active as across the sea.

Statistically there is a possibility that in Fier district exceeds a mandate from the SP to Lapaj-Shabani, but the probability rate of this passing depends on the campaigns that the Socialists of Fier have made in Greece on the one hand, and Lapaj-Shabani on the other. Given the chronicles of recent months, it seems that the Socialists of Fier have been much more active in their campaign in Greece.

Summing up, it can be said that there is a possibility of any other mandate movement until the end of the diaspora vote count (except that of Vlora), but this option is small.