One hundred days of coercion stability: the lack of an alternative does the cabinet « Zhelyazkov »
Sociologists were united around this thesis, with which Dnevnik talks on the eve of the first 100 days of the oath of the Zhelyazkov cabinet. How long will the regular government survive? Who or what will take it? Is the agenda of the agenda on the agenda of the people and is there an alternative? – answered these questions « Dnevnik » sought from Genoveva Petrova from Alpha Research, Evelina Slavkova from Trend, Parvan Simeonov from the Sociological Agency « Mer and Dobromir Zhivkov of Market Link ».
The balance after the first 100 days
According to Genoveva Petrova, the balance for the work of the cabinet is not unambiguous. According to her, the government is sworn in with a good loan of trust, behind which is the argument to the greatest extent that its radiation will lead to normalization and calming political tension.
« Controversy » – Dobromir Zhivkov also gives such an assessment. According to him, the government’s adherence to the strategic goal of Bulgaria’s strategic goal in the euro area (Genoveva Petrova and Evelina Slavkova from Trend expressed such opinions, although it took her as such as such a few weeks after the cable oath.
According to him, there are controversial solutions in the internal political aspect, such as the adoption of a budget with suspected corruption pressure and the reaction of the Minister of Interior Daniel Mitov about the smuggling channel in Plovdiv, which leaves « serious doubts about potential misconduct on ministers and on institutions.
In my opinion, this will play a negative role on public support for this cabinet, which may continue to decline smoothly.
Dobromir Zhivkovsociologist, « Market Link »
In February and March, the results of studies on Market Link show a decline in support for the cabinet of about 5%.
According to Evelina Slavkova from Trend, the cabinet enjoys decent public confidence, although it does not move in the direction it determines, but on the basis of public tensions. It gives an example of violence against animals and road accidents and subsequent legislative initiatives. « Generally, the feeling is that the government is moving after the events, » she adds.
There was some dissipation of negativism about the formation of the government – then it was explained by the fact that some government was formed. Now the government itself is beginning to be evaluated.
Parvan Simeonova sociologist, « measure »
Genoveva Petrova commented that public attitudes, preferences and expectations do not always coincide with the political actions of the leaders who support the government.
In the last 30 years of parliamentary government, we have witnessed precisely that a government is governing, despite the very strong criticism and discontent on the part of the people. I can give an example with the triple coalition that has spent an entire term, despite dissatisfaction.
Genoveva Petrova. Alpha Research sociologist
Zhelyazkov’s cabinet horizon
According to Parvan Simeonov, the government can remain stable for a long time, and the decision will be in power to be Rosen Zhelyazkov will be taken by Boyko Borisov, « who has several times hinted that there are other plans other than those of the government, which it should be responsible for. »
« The government will try to survive in the struggle – depending on the report what it will say, then, depending on whether they will want to stay until the very introduction of the euro, then whether they will want to stay until the presidential election. In my opinion, as evaluating the situation every time, they can stand, » he says.
Radev: Not a hundred days of Zhelyazkov’s office, but a new beginning of the Borisov model
Dobromir Zhivkov is also of the opinion that the government is relatively stable, because, although officially defined as a minority cabinet, with the support of MRF – New Beginning and its leader Delyan Peevski is not really that. According to him, this support is probably backed with shared interests in filling the regulators and the implementation of the state budget. According to Zhivkov, the overthrow of the cabinet and a successful vote of distrust can occur as a result of a misunderstanding between Borisov and Peevski.
The cabinet will depend on the dynamics of the relationship between Borisov and Peevski. We see how Borisov does not always feel comfortable with this cabinet and his actions. On the other hand, we see the same behavior and the same declaration by Peevski.
Dobromir Zhivkov.
Evelina Slavkova says that the government is currently very stable despite the votes of distrust and the departure of the MRF-DPS. According to her, this stability is largely due to the support of the MRF-New Beginning, with which the ruling majority exceeds 121 people (131 MPs – Bel.Av.).
- The resignation of the government after a negative report on the country’s willingness to accept the euro, « since the arguments for its remaining would be exhausted after failing to fulfill its main task »;
- A positive report, but after January 1, 2026 (The expected date for the adoption of the euro – white aut.) the government fails to find a new agenda to justify its existence;
- « There is such a people » (ITN), the BSP or even GERB leave the government after calculating that losses for parties are more than the benefits of staying in the majority. According to Slavkova, « ITN is with the biggest question mark »;
- Internal conflicts between partners in power;
- The presidential election;
- Large -scale protests.
Genoveva Petrova is skeptical that large -scale protests will lead to the removal of the cabinet
According to Slavkova, if the government manages to stay until the presidential election next year, then it will be invalidated and a possible future project by President Rumen Radev.
« One is the situation if the election is in April and President Radev decides to participate, and if the elections are after the presidential ones. Then he will look like a person who is looking for a new job, not as someone with a slogan that he has to save Bulgaria. »
Going to new elections at the moment without a clear argument as to why it goes to new elections, in fact, it will rather lead to negatives for each of the parties.
Evelina Slavkovasociologist, « trend »
Parvan Simeonov also allows a script in which the government is removed from the party of the TV presenter Slavi Trifonov if the point of overflow of the glass is reached. He added that attempts to remove the cabinet with a no -confidence cabinet would be unsuccessful, as parliamentary opposition is fragmented.
If the cabinet is entirely dependent on Delyan Peevski and « MRF – New Beginning », then the eyes will turn to « there is such a people » because they have reacted at such times with some political romanticism back in time.
Parvan Simeonov.
Dobromir Zhivkov is skeptical of such a scenario, since « despite the support of the ITN for the sanitary border around Peevski and despite the release of Dogan’s faction in the MRF, Slavi Trifonov’s party continues to participate in the management with serious positions as ministerial chairs. »
| « Currently, the only party of those participating in the government, which has not voluntarily gave up power so far, is BSP, » Genoveva Petrova recalls. |
Before the new vote of distrust: power expects stability and is not disturbed by Peevski’s support
Is there an alternative to the government
An alternative management majority in parliament is currently not despite the two no -confidence votes and the requests for such initiatives every two weeks. The initiators are « Revival », « greatness » and a sword, which are declared as a quick election but do not offer any other opportunity for management construction.
« We continue the change » has also announced a no -confidence vote that will be submitted if Bulgaria receives a positive convergent report on the country’s willingness to accept the euro. « Democratic Bulgaria » is the thesis that it makes sense of a no -confidence vote if it is ready for alternative governance.
We are in a situation where there is a cabinet, which, although not particularly liked by society, is currently not an alternative, given that if we think about one, it means going through a office again, early parliamentary elections – something that society in my opinion does not definitely want.
Dobromir Zhivkov.
Parvan Simeonov is of the opinion that he has expectations for President Rumen Radev, who, however, has not yet been constituted as an alternative. According to him, the largest parliamentary opposition force in the face of « We continue the change-democratic Bulgaria » is not recognized as such, which is why « is currently looking for an alternative in more radical formations denying the party system in general, such as a sword and » Revival « .
« To look after the party »: Peevski threatened Borisov after accusations that he was annoyed with GERB
Trust in political leaders
Sociologists report both a decline in confidence in political leaders who support the cabinet and for everyone else.
Dobromir Zhivkov is of the opinion that it is not the support for the cabinet itself, but the decision of the Constitutional Court, which formalized the problems in the Bulgarian election process, is what leads to a decline in confidence in all political leaders. He points out that it is about one or two points on average.
« The cabinet has not yet accumulated negatives to lead this to direct effects on the leaders, » he adds.
According to Simeonov, it is expected that the confidence of the leaders of political forces, as people involved in operational policy are usually losing confidence. According to him, only President Rumen Radev is the exception, who « Hem intervened in operational policy, he maintained the levels of confidence. »
The mass consciousness does not seek others on the pitch, but the new, the different and the one against everyone.
Parvan Simeonov.
