Oil prices are expected to reach $ 80 for a long time – Cyprus Newspaper

Brent oil, which closed the first week of the April with more than 9 percent loss due to the demand that has difficulty in capturing the supply increases seen in global oil markets, is thought to be 80 dollars for a long time.

Following US President Donald Trump signed the decree on the implementation of mutual tariffs for imports on April 2, his expectations that global trade wars would deepen and restrict oil demand.

Following this announcement that Trump described as “salvation day ,, the price of Brent oil, the barrel price of the barrel, lost close to 1 percent on the same day with increasing demand concerns, while the Western Texas species (WTI) decreased by 0.6 percent to 70.48 dollars.

Subsequently, the OPEC+ group, which consists of oil -exporting countries’ Organization (OPEC) and some non -OPEC producer countries, announced that it would remain loyal to the gradual production increase decision and strengthened the supply concerns and created additional pressure on prices.

OPEC+ Group, on April 3, as of April 1, the daily 2.2 million barrel volunteer production cutting in a gradual manner, in May after the daily 411 thousand barrels of production increases after the Brent Oil lost more than 5 percent of the same day and closed the largest daily loss since October 2023. WTI also lost 5.6 on the same day and went down to 66.33.

In addition to these concerns, China’s fact that 34 percent additional customs duties will be imposed on all products imported from the United States on April 4 strengthened the risk of global “trade war”, decreasing oil prices to $ 63.85 and caused the first time to see $ 65 for the first time since August 2021.

Brent Petroleum closed 65.74 with a decrease of close to 6 percent on the same day, while WTI also completed $ 62.10 with a decrease of more than 6 percent. Thus, Brent oil lost 9.2 percent in the first week of April and fell to $ 65.74 and recorded the lowest weekly closing since August 2021.

« Prices will not return to $ 80 for a long time »

London -based energy information company Energy Intelligence Group’s oil market economist Julien Mathonniere, AA correspondent in his assessment of the issue, stating that the appearance of global oil demand for a long time, prices will not return to 80 dollars for a long time, he said.

Mathonniere pointed out that the decisions of Trump and OPEC+ group suppressed the oil demand to a great extent and said, “While the OPEC+ group continues to provide more supply to the market, I do not expect a significant increase in demand due to the economic uncertainties created by global trade wars. Therefore, it is difficult to expect oil prices to return to $ 80. he said.

For this reason, Mathonniere stated that it is expected to continue the decline in oil prices and continued his words as follows:

“Particularly in China, which is one of the largest demand centers in the world, structural economic problems continue. Moreover, Beijing has a major trade surplus with the United States, which makes the country directly target in the tariff decisions of the United States. Even the rapidly increasing oil demand cannot ignore the destructive economic effects of a possible global trade war.

« Trump’s protectionist trade policies do not match the objectives of increasing exports »

Mathonniere said that the US administration’s association for the national security policy and customs tariffs paved the way for global “trade wars, and that this situation contradicts Trump’s goals to increase exports.

Mathonniere said that the policies followed by Trump increase the risk of competitive devaluation on a global scale. He said.

Mathonniere stated that investors should follow the US dollar in this process and shared the information that the demand for oil will increase if the dollar weakened against other currencies.

Mathonniere said that Trump could take steps to reduce the value of the dollar within 6 to 8 months in the following 6 to 8 months.

Mathonniere, at the same time, the US’s moves to Iran should be considered, stating, « US military attack on Iran can increase oil prices 5 dollars per barrel, but risk premiums often tend to fall faster than expected. » evaluated.