Oil exports from the Russian Federation in the context of new US sanctions decreased by only 5.2%

As it became known to Kommersant, oil exports from the Russian Federation in the conditions of the actions of new US sanctions regarding the tanker fleet transporting Russian raw materials in January decreased by only 5.2%. At the same time, by mid -February, according to the CCI, the daily shipment of oil from the ports had reached the maximum since the beginning of the year amid the restoration of supplies to China. In March, export volumes will depend on the loading of the refineries and may decrease when several plants are withdrawn.

US sanctions against Russian oil tankers had a limited impact on shipments in January. Exports from Russia decreased by 5.2% relative to the same period last year, to 24.4 million tons, a source familiar with industry statistics told Kommersant. According to these data, the deliveries abroad at Lukoil were the most sophisticated – by 27.9%, up to 2 million tons. Surgutneftegaz exports decreased by 13%, also to 2 million tons. Rosneft retained shipments at about the level of January 2024 – 6.6 million tons. Gazprom Neft increased export by 20%, to 1.7 million tons. In oil records, the situation is not commented.

In the Transneft system, growth in January showed exports in the direction of Europe. In Hungary, the shipments increased by 9.9%, to 434 thousand tons, in Slovakia – by 3.6%, to 420 thousand tons. At the same time, export to the Czech Republic decreased to 271 thousand tons, which is 3% lower than last year. Transit supplies from Kazakhstan through Russia to Germany on the northern branch of the Druzhba oil pipeline increased 2.6 times, to 261 thousand tons. General deliveries from Kazakhstan fell by 14%, to 5.7 million tons. Including shipments on the Caspian pipeline consortium (KTK) decreased by 16.4%, to 5.1 million tons.

In February, according to experts, oil exports from the Russian Federation significantly grew.

So, by the middle of the month, shipment from Russian ports increased by 66.2% relative to the first week of the month, to 487 thousand tons per day, having reached the maximum since the beginning of this year, calculated in the center of price indices (CCI). According to experts, export growth was facilitated by improving weather conditions in the areas of floating storage facilities near Murmansk and Kozmino Terminal. Deliveries from these ports from 10 to 16 February increased 2.5 times a week by a week. In particular, the load of the Kozmino terminal during this period increased by almost 1.5 times, to 141 thousand tons per day. Exports from the Baltic ports grew by 26.2%, to 183 thousand tons per day. At the same time, oil shipments from Novorossiysk were slightly reduced – by 1.8%, to 53 thousand tons per day.

The February increase in exports of the CCI is also associated with the restoration of shipments to China, which immediately after the introduction of US sanctions covered its ports for tankers with Russian oil. In January, due to the fall of supplies from Iran and Russia, oil imports to China by the sea fell up to 8.7 million barrels per day-a minimum over the past 2.4 years, which led to a reduction in reserves of raw materials, the CCC indicate. And Chinese companies began to look for ways to increase imports by using new schemes – for example, alienating port assets and thus avoiding secondary sanctions.

“It is expected that in the future more tankers will unload the ESPO raw oil in two ports in Dunyin, which will contribute to stabilizing Russian oil supplies to China,” analysts say.

Nevertheless, they do not expect a sharp increase in oil exports from the Russian Federation in this direction in February, indicating that the deterrent will be an increase in Chinese import of raw materials from the countries of the Middle East.

Also, the stabilization of freight rates contribute to the growth of export. By mid -February, oil transportation rates had a balance, said Roman Sokolov CCI expert. It indicates that the freight from the western ports has not changed, slightly fluctuating on a number of routes, and the price of supplies to Northern China decreased – by 3.6% in the Baltic and 8.8% in Novorossiysk. The freight rate from Kozmino jumped by 26.3% relative to the beginning of February, but this is due to a sharp increase in export against the background of improving the weather, he notes.

In March, Russian oil companies can reduce oil exports and transit through Primorsk, Ust-Luga and Novorossiysk to 1.8–1.85 million barrels per day from 2 million barrels per day expected in February, that is, 8%, Reuters writes with reference to their sources. A possible reduction in shipments abroad is associated with the restoration of processing at a number of refineries.

Olga Mordyushenko