Now that the ‘axis of resistance’ is shut down, Iran is back

These are images that the Iranian leaders will vote despondently: gaping black holes in apartment buildings in the capital Tehran and elsewhere, where Israel could apparently effortlessly locate and eliminate opponents – from generals to nuclear physicists. Or Movies spread through the Mossad What can be seen on how agents of the intelligence service on Iranian territory as he will put military targets in the ashes.

It is reminiscent of the eighties traumatic eighties, when the strict Islamic regime of Ayatollah Khomeiny, who has just been installed, survived the war against the invaded army of Iraq but barely survived. Since then everything in Iran has always focused on keeping external threats at bay, even though it cost a lot of money and effort.

After 45 years, Iran is more or less back and no longer has foreign allies

To this end, an American drone was carried out under the leadership of the in 2020 Dead General Qassem Soleimani Gradually set up on the so -called ‘axis of resistance’. This was a separate partnership of the Lebanese Hezbollah, the Palestinian Hamas, the regime of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, Pro-Iranian militias in Iraq and the Yemeni Houthis, which formed a kind of security ring around Iran. Hamas and Hezbollah, however, have been strongly weakened and assad in recent months due to Israel in recent months from the scene.

For example, after 45 years, Iran is more or less back and it no longer has foreign allies who, if necessary, can take care of the first blows of Israel or other enemies. Iran himself became twice last year attacked directly by Israeland now much harder than then. In addition, Iran through economically decades long foreign sanctions is on the ground. To make matters worse for the regime, oil revenues fell considerably last year. As a result, Iran’s financial resources are limited.

Although the Iranians had a day off on Friday, demonstrations against Israel and the United States, traditionally, traditionally the favorite scapegoats of the regime came in the capital Tehanan. Some demonstrators echo the official propaganda against foreign media that these attacks were the last convulsions of Israel.

Storm

The elderly supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamei, and his remaining advisors – he lost his important safety adviser on Friday Ali Shamkhani – know better, however. They realize very well that they will have to go all sails to cope with this storm and allow their regime to survive. That they see that, they already showed last fall – after the second relatively limited Israeli attack on Iran – by raising an increase in the defense budget by no less than 200 percent for the next budget year.

Is Iran completely powerless against the attacks of Israel? No, experts think, Although many were surprised how modest Irans unpacked counterattacks last year after all the rhetoric of his leaders. But Iran still has one of the largest rocket areas in the Middle East. His Air Force proposes little, but his advanced missiles are considered a strong weapon. In addition, Iran Drones, who have already been successfully used by Russia, produces on the battlefield in Ukraine.

Due to the hostile attitude of Israel and also of the United States under the leadership of Donald Trump, Iran is more or less driven into the arms of Russia and China. Tehran concluded a defense agreement with Moscow in January of this year, although this does not contain a clause that the countries should help each other in the event of a war. China is the most important buyer of Iranian oil. Due to the sanctions, many other countries are not interested in this, for fear of problems with the US. Russia and China also support Iran in his conflict with the US and Israel about his nuclear program.

The big question now is whether Iran will still go into the incentive From President Trump to further negotiate an agreement in Oman next Sunday. In addition, Iran should introduce considerable restrictions on its nuclear program in exchange for the lifting of economic sanctions.

It would be surprising if Khamenei, who traditionally only wanted to negotiate with abroad from a position of strength, would be prepared for this. Assuming that Iranian negotiators can already reach Oman safely. But the reign in Tehran does not seem to have many alternatives either.

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