(Not) the possible budget with an over -role of BDB and a state chain of luxury

The budget entered a quick track. In the face of a late framework for the state's finances and another political earthquakes, this (at first glance) should be good news. The Budget Committee in Parliament has found some mechanism to skip the attempt to accumulate thousands of proposals on the texts and managed to check the three laws that form the state finances at second reading one business day. It seems that the budget will be adopted in a hall next week – that is, fiscal policy will enter a normal rhythm as procedures, predictability and a framework for the expected convergent report in the spring.

However, this positive look only slides over the surface of the events. The widely used verbal expression for the « possible budget » prepare (quite consciously) the soil for this fast track. Despite the many criticisms of the overall budget framework aimed mostly at

1) Too optimistic betting of VAT revenue and the rise in insurance burden in the coming years,

2) the need to review the expenditure part (with a height of 6 (GDP per year!) And limiting the excessive growth of the staff and

3) The too controversial idea of ​​the creation of a « shadow budget », that is, extraordinary and extra -budgetary BGN 7.2 billion. Focused mainly to the Bulgarian Development Bank and Bulgarian Energy Holding,

In the « fatal » day of publication of the Constitutional Court's decision on elections, voting on the budget in a committee revealed the majority behind the framework of state finance.

The prolonged meeting was led by President Delyan Dobrev (GERB), in full sync with Yordan Tsonev (« MRF – New Beginning »). Other parties that support the cabinet (BSP and ITN) had minimal participation. Opponents of the ruling, excluding « Revival », whose proposals were not admitted and in the end they almost did not make speeches, were Assen Vasilev (« We continue the change ») and Martin Dimitrov (« Democratic Bulgaria »). The budget debate was essentially a debate between four people, with the participation of Temenuzhka Petkova, who was taking on the proposals made.

An example of the spirit of the discussion was the idea of ​​Martin Dimitrov and MPs from Democratic Bulgaria to increase the taxation of gambling as a measure of contraction of the deficit and an alternative to the increase in the insurance burden. We should note here that

This proposal was first greeted by Yordan Tsonev, who went into a dispute over insurance and explained that he generally supported the discussion of gambling, but once in the future. After that, Temenuzhka Petkova also said that the idea requires a long consideration, discussions with the sector, etc., that is, « nice, but another time ».

Minutes later came to the idea of ​​Delyan Peevski (« MRF – New Beginning ») for the state chain of grocery stores. Here, of course, Yordan Tsonev defended the idea and explained that this was in many countries and would give examples in plenary. Then came Temenuzhka Petrova, who said that she was not aware of the idea, but overall not bad, because there seemed to be a problem with chains and prices, and this idea did not load the budget (apparently the 10 million levs of the new company do not count them). The contrast in the Minister's behavior on gambling topics and state grocery stores was apparent and happened within a few minutes.

This concise story is needed because we are in a period in which the budget is completely locked in internal struggle in the ruling majority (already in a wide composition) and does not in any way appear to be influenced by external opinions and positions.

A gram of thought regarding the increase in salaries in the power agencies is not allowed. The large -scale capital program through state -owned companies (the new « shadow budget » and the over -role of BDB) also seems to be fundamental for this management. The price of these policies and the so -called « possible budget », incl. The non -accepting of the ideas for budget consolidation will be a high deficit, with a worsening impaired trajectory for years to come, and hence pressure to increase taxes and impressive government debt growth.