No, Russia is not going to invade Europe

The ongoing fear of a Russian invasion of Europe has gained more and more space in the public debate, but is it really building on logical and rational assessments?

Intelligence services and media paint a picture of an increasingly aggressive superpower that within a few years may be ready for an invasion of Europe. “Within about five years, Russia can prepare for a large -scale war in Europe«  says the Danish intelligence service (FAIRY).

But if we look realistically and historically at the situation, it actually makes little sense that Russia should want major war and invasion of Europe.

Russia already has what they need

Let’s start with the most basic: Resources. Russia is the world’s largest country and has access to a huge amount of natural resources. With about 50 % of the world’s well-known gas reserves, 50 % of coal and huge oil deposits, plenty of metals and minerals, as well as large lands with forests and agricultural land, Russia is self-sufficient in a way few other nations are.

What would they like from Europe that they do not already have? Neither land or resources are in short supply for the Kremlin.

Geopolitic logic indicates buffer zones, not occupation of the EU

If we look at Russia’s historical strategy, it is clear that they seek buffer zones rather than territorial expansion into Europe. NATO’s massive expansion eastward has been warned for 40 years, but not complied with, and the invasion of Ukraine was largely motivated by preventing further NATO proximity to strategic Russian borders. This is not « Putin’s propaganda », this is known from international experts, defense managers, diplomats and foreign ministers around the world.

Even during the time of the Soviet Union, there was no question of directly occupying Western Europe, but rather to secure a buffer zone of allied states in Eastern Europe. The same principle applies today. Russia does not want to be surrounded by a hostile alliance, but that does not mean that they will launch a catastrophic campaign to take on land they do not need.

This the quote by NATO’s Jens Stoltenberg is worth noting and confirming the reality of the sections above: “President Putin declared in the fall of 2021, and actually sent a draft treaty that they wanted NATO to sign, to promise no more NATO extension, and it was a prerequisite for not invading Ukraine. « 

Stoltenberg ended the quote like this: « Of course we did not sign that agreement. ”

The consequences of the decision have been fatal, probably hundreds of thousands have died completely unnecessary. Now the same argument is on the negotiating table, and is hopefully taken seriously this time.

A European invasion is not realistic because it will be disastrous for Russia

If Russia really intended to attack NATO countries, it would trigger a full military response from the alliance, including the possibility of nuclear war. Such a situation would not be a strategic victory, but an existential threat to Russia itself. Putin and Russian leadership are many things, but they are not suicidal. They know that a direct attack on Europe will lead to destruction for themselves: economic, military and existential. It is therefore totally unrealistic to claim Russian invasion of the EU.

Who earns the fear of invasion of the EU?

So why is this threat image painted time and time again? It is worth asking who is interested in maintaining the fear of a Russian invasion of Europe:

– Western weapons industry serves tremendously on increased defense budgets and military renovation in Europe.

– NATO uses the threat as an opportunity to strengthen its political and military power over member states.

-The EU is lying with its own EU army, calls itself the security of European countries, and now there is a huge EU membership rush in Norway and in other countries. EU membership is preached as the rescue of those outside.

– Political parties in election years: Several parties use the threat of invasion in their election campaign strategy, as Høyres Erna Solberg: “We need an economy that can carry a war ”.

– Russia itself also has an advantage in the West painting a picture of them as an unstoppable war machine – it gives them a certain psychological and diplomatic influence internationally and brings together the national feeling internally in its own country.

Time for a more realistic approach

Europe should focus on real security challenges and not be guided by speculation on a large -scale Russian invasion that has no logical or strategic credibility. Russia is a great power that wants influence, but that does not mean they want a war they cannot win.

Instead of building a panic -driven fear, Europe should focus on diplomacy, strategic deterrence and economic robustness. A cold, rational approach is far more effective than feeding the fear of an invasion that will never happen.

Truls Olufsen-Mehus

Parliamentary candidate

Conservative