No preference votes, powerful large provinces: reform of the electoral system can also be disadvantageous

To bridge the emotional distance – the ‘gorge’ – between voter and chosen politicians, much has already been devised, from a corrective referendum and a lower voting age to a different electoral system. The Schoof cabinet is now making work of the latter.

Minister Judith Uitermark (Home Affairs, NSC) is preparing a change in which 125 of the 150 MPs are no longer chosen via a national list, but from a list that contains other candidates per province. As a result, « the root of the parliament in society is increased, » said an unpublished plan from which RTL News Wednesday quoted.

This coalition mainly sees a (social) geographical gap: between Randstad and the region, between the city and a countryside that finds no hearing for its concerns. See the protests of farmers or natural gas godupers. A new electoral system must strengthen ‘the regional bond’ between voter and parliament, announced the outline agreement.

BBB and NSC, the greatest proponents of electoral system reform, were inspired by foreign examples for the elections. In New social contract Calculated Pieter Omtzigt based on the Swedish model, BBB flirted with the Danish. Both systems voted per district. For example, most seats are distributed, after which ‘compensation spots’ are assigned via various calculations.

In 2012, Pieter Omtzigt was chosen with preferential votes. The chance under the new system on this would be virtually zero

Uitermarks plan for a « proportionate regional electoral system » is also based on such a second distribution of 25 seats, giving each party a fair number of seats. According to RTL, the plan was discussed with other ministers. Now she has to « De Boer » for support in the coalition.

Leader

Because candidates can only be eligible in one province in this plan, the minister thinks they will do that in the province where they come from or where they live, but it is not mandatory. In this form, the national party leadership comes to an end for parties; As a candidate, the party leader must also choose one province.

There is probably not every party leader waiting for that, even if they actively advocate reform. « In 2012, Pieter Omtzigt was chosen with preferential votes. The chance of this system would be almost zero, » says Henk van der Kolk, professor of electoral politics at the University of Amsterdam who with two other academics Uitermarks plan passed.

The big question is therefore « how such a system, once there is, will be played, » says Tom van der Meer, UvA professor of political science. For example, it could lead to « politicians applying tactically, as we also see in other countries (with a district system). Then the party top is a candidate in South or North Holland, large provinces with many voters and therefore relatively many seats. The irony is that large provinces become politics then more powerful ».

That also touches on an essential aspect of the current system: most people vote for the party leader because it simply appeals to them the most. It is, as it were, the most important ‘preferred voice’. « In the new system, regional is optimized at the expense of everything else, » says Van der Kolk. For example, if you live in Utrecht and want to reward a Groninger from national politics with your voice, it is not possible. « This is how the importance of preferential votes and other values, such as male/female, expertise, ethnicity. »

Thousands of funnel

Many choices still have to be made, such as about the number of overturning seats, the electoral threshold and, for example, the question of whether voters in the Caribbean are guaranteed seats. If you can turn all wheels, there are more than 12,000 variants of this system in theory, the calculation shows.

The most important questions from the researchers: how can you maintain party political proportionality (the relationship between number of votes and seats) and how can the geographical representation be improved?

To this end, they have « thrown through thousands of funnel » all election results since 1998. Conclusion: if you organize it properly, the political proportionality of today seems to be largely accessible. But not always: with 30 liquidation seats you cannot rule out that five or more seats « end up with political parties that would not be entitled to it in the current system ». Whether a party that just achieves one seat can just not get it in the new system.

Is that acceptable? « According to the Constitution, the House of Representatives must be ‘proportional’, » says Van der Meer. « If you come out of eight seats, is that still proportional? What is the chance? That is political and legal questions in a gray area. »

You can also ask questions with regional spread. Is the Randstad really over -represented? Yes, with thirty seats. But other regions also have a relatively large number of MPs compared to the number of inhabitants (Groningen, South Limburg, Twente). They are also ‘vocal’, As previous research showedwhile the political dissatisfaction is great.

The question of who comes on the ‘liquidation list’ also matters. If they all come from South Holland, that also influences the spread. According to the researchers, that is now “a black box In the electoral system ”. And then: even a perfect geographical reflection does not solve the alleged lack of a regional band if politicians are hardly ‘recognizable and approachable as regional representatives, as now.

Politicians from The Hague represent local interests, that is not allowed by the Constitution. But, says Van der Kolk, parties used to use different electoral lists in different electoral circles. « It was abolished in the 1970s. Now it seems to be mandatory. But that is not necessary at all: if NSC and BBB want to come up with their own lists, it can also be within the current system. »

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