New military alliances in the region: BiH is not at the table – the world

The strategic commitment of Bosnia and Herzegovina is the accession of NATO – so is at least provided by the Law on Defense.

But the Republika Srpska has long challenged what he herself agreed on herself. The position of Banja Luka, which reflects a deep institutional and security blockage within the state, conditions the absence of BiH from current regional initiatives.

Although BiH is a member of the Partnership for Peace and has professional armed forces under state command, it is factually paralyzed.

Internal divisions disables progress and more often I will put BiH into an ungrateful regional position – a state that is territorially at the center of the Western Balkans, but beyond serious security dialogues.

BiH outside of new arrangements

In this context, the political initiatives that come from the environment do not seem to be seriously involved in BiH as a reliable or functional partner.

A recent declaration on military co-operation between Croatia, Albania and Kosovo, as well as the agreement of Serbia and Hungary on mutual military aid – represent a new security dynamic in the region. However, BiH does not play a clear role in these processes.

Additional complexity also bring existing mechanisms such as sub-regional arms control agreements from 1996. years.

The Nedžad Ahatović’s military analyst says that the agreement has become technologically overcome: « The military balance in the Western Balkans does not exist for the whole decade. All within the agreement, because they do not permit the quotas per military rugs. »

« But today you need far fewer funds for war – unmanned aircraft, for example, are not covered at all. Therefore, it should or leave it as a military balance or restored with clearer and stricter criteria. »

Dodik’s ambition and dangerous rhetoric

The President of the Republika Srpska Milorad Dodik openly announces the possibility of this entity, as if a separate international entity, join the Military Alliance of Serbia and Hungary.

Although it is a political rhetoric without a legal basis, such statements are not without consequences. « It is a rough violation of the BiH Constitution, » warns Ahatović, recalling that Dodik is already suspected of attacking the constitutional order and that his statements cause additional tensions in BiH and the region.

The Military Political Analyst Vladimir Vucković considers that attempts in the region in the region outside the existing structures, such as NATO or ODKB (Russia’s organization of collective security contracts), act unsustainable:

« Two new alliance talks more about regional domination than the real cohesion. The relationship between the old arms does not meet the NATO standards, but from mutual animosities to the opponent’s blocks, » Vuckovic believes.

He believes that it would be better alternative approach: « Instead of participating in such structures, it would be smarter in Austria – a country that benefits its neutrality for economic stability and is not a member of any military alliance. »

Global context and regional consequences

The Military Political Commentator Antonio Prlenda warns that geopolitical changes, including the return of Donald tramp on the American political scene, further influence security calculations in the region:

« The experience of Ukraine shows that they are no longer a reliable ally for as long as it is a tramp in government. His policy is reduced to China can mean a decrease in American engagement in Europe – including possible retreat of troops from Kosovo. »

In this context, Prlenda sees the logic in the Albanian and Kosovo’s Alliance: « The recent visit of the Croatian Defense Minister Turkey is not accidental – Turkey is a key partner in BiH. All this has a deterrent effect, especially according to Serbia. »

Kosovo as a catalyst

He adds that in the case of the crisis in Kosovo, the Alliance of these countries could also be transferred to BiH. « If Bosniaks and Croats in BiH are on the same side, Dodik does not seem to be the support he expected – Citizens of BiH, regardless of nationality, are increasingly choosing peace and stability instead of political adventures, » says DW.

As for the agreement between Serbia and Hungary, Prlenda is clear: « It is a Vucic’s populistic response to the Zagreb – for internal use. It helps the other Putin player. All this confirms that the EU and the region must be further careful. »

In all this, BiH remains trapped between internal divisions and external distrust.

Prlenda estimates that it is difficult to talk about BiH as a reliable international partner « when you have a large Serbian Trojan horse from the beginning, which mines all international initiatives ».

The only way for BiH is approaching the European Union – so NATO door would open, Prlenda is convinced.

The agreement between Serbia and Hungary in the Defense field?

« NATO is not part of it, it does not concern the Alliance, » the question answers the DW @Secgennato pic.twitter.com/yykhqkrvvn

– DW Balkan BHS (@dw_balkan) April 2, 2025

Regional agreements commented on the question of DW and NATO’s General Skeretar Mark route. « We see more bilateral and trilateral agreements in the region. We have seen Albania with Kosovo and Croatia, and now this agreement (Serbia and Hungary). NATO is not part of it, it does not concern the Alliance, » he said.