New cars market: June dynamics
The market for new cars in the first week of summer showed, according to experts, good dynamics. In the further development of events, options are possible: both a small revitalization of credit and leasing sales, and a certain “freezing”. It is possible that some of the buyers after a positive signal at the rate of the Central Bank will wait for more favorable conditions and postpone the purchase. In general, about 100 thousand machines are supposedly reached by June sales, dealers are evaluated.
Sales of new cars in the first full week of summer – from June 2 to 8 – decreased by 0.7% relative to the previous week, to 23.56 thousand units, calculated in Avtostat. The TOP-5 models for the week included Lada Granta (3.07 thousand pieces), Lada Vesta (1.66 thousand pieces), Chinese Haval Jolion (1.04 thousand pcs) and Changan Uni-S (806 pieces), as well as Lada Largus (653 pieces).
The first week of the month, as a rule, is worse than the latter, recalls the executive director of the agency Sergey Udalov, but the current indicators were almost equal. “This can be regarded as a good sign and result,” the expert believes. Positive dynamics is observed in the segments of light commercial and trucks: growth by the previous week by 0.5%, up to 1.74 thousand units, and 10%, up to 783 pieces, clarify in Avtostat.
June for the Russian car market will probably be quite stable – a sharp increase in demand against the background of a decrease in the key rate from 21% to 20% is not worth waiting, Mr. Udalov predicts. In his opinion, this is rather a neutral signal. “Deposits are still attractive to the population. And credit rates for new cars are subsidized by manufacturers significantly lower than the key rate, ”adds Andrei Terlukevich, general director of the Avtopets Center Group of Companies.
According to the director of the Department of New Cars of Rolf, Nikolai Ivanov, a decrease in the key rate on one percentage point – “drop in the sea”, that is, will not affect business, corporate lending and demand. A similar opinion is shared by the editor -in -chief of the magazine « Driving » Maxim Kadakov. “Prices will remain the same as two or three weeks ago,” he said. Alexander Kornev, head of the Gazprombank Autolyting Importers Department, clarifies that a reduction in the rate gives the market hope for the revival of credit and leasing sales, although small.
However, some of the “Kommersant” interviewed dealers and experts believes that the reduction in the rate will probably not increase demand, but, on the contrary, will slow down. The expectation of further softening of monetary policy can force part of the potential buyers to postpone the purchase of cars on credit in order to wait for more favorable conditions, explains the expert of Ayler Vladimir Bespalov. Evgeny Zhitnykhin, the commercial director of the Fresh automotive market. “Someone will think-the bet has fallen, but so far is slight. However, the dynamics is understandable. We must wait again, ”he echoes.
In general, the industry participants predict the growth of the market for new cars regarding May, which approximately corresponds to the level of April – 102.11 thousand pieces, according to Avtostat. According to Mr. Kornev, in the first summer month, sellers’ activity may increase slightly due to the upcoming quarterly bonuses. In addition, the effect can be supported by demand from the Chinese automakers, he indicates.
Avilon expects that sales will be 102–105 thousand pieces, in Rolf – 98-100 thousand pieces. Vladimir Bespalov and Sergey Udalov agree that the market will reach about 100 thousand new cars. Demand can spur a more significant decrease in the key rate – at least another two percentage points, says Maxim Kadakov, as well as the approach of the upcoming utilsbor indexation. “Perhaps the market will wake up in the fall,” he summarizes.
