Netanyahu’s traps

« We will measure our success in the won battles, but in wars from which we will go out and wars that we will not start, » said Donald Trump in the presidential campaign a year ago. However, the anti-war president continued the war in Gaza, the one in Ukraine (saying that Russia and Ukraine should be allowed to fight for a while behind the block), and is now about to start a war in Iran.

Israel attacked Iran, announcing, like Donald Trump, that it is the first in a longer series of nuclear facilities and other military objectives. But the purpose of Israel is not necessarily to destroy the installations with which Iran can build nuclear weapon – this cannot be achieved with the weapons that Israel now has. Even the decapitation of revolutionary guards is not a strategy that works in the long run. The purpose of this attack and those who can come is to remove the US from any negotiations with Iran and attract to direct military operations. The purpose can also be like American soldiers (regardless of what military bases and what countries of the Middle East) to be killed following the Iranian responses, because this increases the probability that the United States is attracted to the war.

The strategy of the Netanyahu government cannot seek the policy of the Islamic Republic of resorting to terrorist attacks and sponsorship of some groups in the Middle East and beyond. But the Israeli attacks, and those with whom the US even warns, and the spectrum of regime change that can begin to plane over Tehran (as in Libya or Syria) will make many states and average power sales want their nuclear weapon.

Prime Minister Netanyahu, with the Western press by echo, addressed to the Iranians: « The time has come for the Iranian people to rally around the flag and historical inheritance, rising for the release of a bad and oppressive regime. » The inheriting prince Reza Pahlavi made several visits to Israel, the last of which there is public information taking place in 2023. Some of the members of the Donald Trump’s close circle have relations with the Iranian group of opposition to the people, to whom the United States offered hosting in Albania, where they created a true state. However, it is an organization with a little outlet in the Iranian public, for his alloy with Saddam Hussein’s Iraq in the war between Iran and Iraq (1980-1988).

Israel attacked Iran with over 200 aircraft, one day after the President of the United States expressed his commitment for a diplomatic solution with Tehran. « Iran cannot have a nuclear weapon. Beyond that, I want it to be a successful country. I want to be prosperous. We will help them to be successful. We will trade with them. We will do everything needed. I want an agreement with Iran. We are approaching such an agreement. »

Then followed the Israeli blow on June 13, one that the same President Donald Trump had anticipated. In the first hours after the attack, the US Conservative press expressed its revolt towards the Netanyahu government, showing that the unilateral and aggressive action of Israel not only undermined the American diplomacy, but also endangered the lives of the Americans. There are about 40,000 American soldiers in the Persian Gulf region.

« American leaders seem to understand that this conflict will be bad for the lives and affairs of Americans in the Gulf, but I do not say anything about the fact that Prime Minister Netanyahu rely on this evil to Americans. It is a bold movement that some realist Republicans like George HW Bush and counselors like James Baker or Brent Unilateral on another state, apparently in order to undermine American diplomatic negotiations, ”writes UNHD. « But by preaching the Israel to continue in this way without a firm rejection, the US will reach a new war in the Middle East and they will be laughing on the international stage. To support Israel means a terrible strategic mistake: either Netanyahu makes America act stupidly involving it in a war against its interest, US reputation ”.

« If the conflict is the inevitable, the American message must be clear: it is not our war, » the American Conservative, which praises Donald Trump’s policy to conclude warboy of America and reduce US military presence in the world.

But Donald Trump has disappointed his supporters in the conservative press. « I think it was excellent. I gave the Iranians a chance, and they did not take advantage of it. They were hit hard. And they will follow. Much more, » Trump said, in a discussion with ABC journalists. As for the impact on markets, with the rapid increase in oil price, Trump said, for The Wall Street Journal: « I think for markets it will be very good that Iran does not have nuclear weapon. Iran will not have a nuclear weapon to be a threat to humanity. »

The President-Negotiator sent to Iran that, if he does not negotiate as he wishes, the US will make war directly or through Netanyahu, who has the best American weapons and will receive many more.

The President of the House of Representatives in the US, Mike Johnson, had a similar position: « Unfortunately, Iran refused an agreement and even said yesterday that he intends to build a new facility for enriching the uranium. Israel decided to act to defend themselves. It was their right to do this. » And then Johnson warned: « Iran will have serious consequences if it reacts by unjustifiably hitting the interests of the US. »

But the US seems to be ready for involvement in a new conflict not only if they were hit directly, but also if Iran responds to the June 13 attack (the first in an Israeli series, as President Trump suggests). According to Axios, the « universal » envoy (in Russia, and in the Middle East) of the White House, real estate magnate Steve Witkoff, would have said in a meeting with Republican senators that Iranian response to Israeli attack on nuclear objectives could overwhelm the Israeli defense and could cause great material and human damage.

If the Netanyahu government knew that the Iranian response would overwhelm the Israeli defense, then why did Iran attacked? The reason seems obvious: because the United States will be forced to intervene in the defense of Israel. Professor John J. Mearsheimer compares the situation now with the invasion of the Bay of Pigs, 1961. Then, the CIA chiefs who set up the action against the Castro regime did not rely on a success, but on a failure to determine the new President John F. Kennedy to plus and subsequently resort to a more powerful action. Now, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is trying to cause a hard reaction of Iran, to convince the Trump administration to enter the war.

Will Iran bite the bait? Most likely yes. « By the will of Allah, the strong hand of the armed forces of the Islamic Republic will not allow Israel to escape unpunished, » said Ayatollah of Hello Khamena. And, in parallel with new Israeli attacks, on the evening of June 13, Iran launched the first response. « Iran is prepared for any scenario, situations and circumstances. The enemy believes that he can fight with us as he does with the Palestinians without defense that are under siege. We are bold in battle and exparted, » said General Salami, the head of the revolutionary guards, the units of the Iranian units.

Can Iran overwhelm the Israeli defense, as Witkoff and Jewish lobby warns? Yes, say those who claim that Iran has an important arsenal of hypersonic missiles, of terrible drones. Just a few days before the Israeli bombings, the Iranian Minister of Information said that Iran had possessed of extremely important information about the nuclear arsenal of Israel, information that would be partially made by Tehran. Does this mean that the Iranian response could concern the hidden Israeli nuclear facilities?

Not really, say those who show how Israel has always managed to catch Iran on the wrong foot and give a lot of blows to Iran and the resistance axis that he has sponsored in the Middle East: Hezbollah beheading through Operation with Explosive Pagon. involved in the nuclear program. Until the potential bombing by Iran of the Israeli nuclear objectives, Israel is the one who proves that he has the precise coordinates: in the June 13 attack was killed General Hossein Salami, along with an important counselor of Khamena’s Ayatollah. « Most leaders of the Air Force for revolutionary guards were killed by an Israeli blow. They had a meeting in a bunker. The Israeli secret services had the information that they were in that place, » writes The Wall Street Journal, citing the Israeli Minister of Defense. WSJ also writes that, « long before the attack, Israeli services transported explosives and drones to Iran. At the time of the Israeli attack, Mossad agents on the ground used drones and other weapons to hit Iranian air defense systems and ballistic missile launchers. »

Chopped by the last year’s Israeli blows, the Iranian air defense was almost non -existent on June 13. It was one of the reasons why some Iranians began to criticize the regime. A former BBC correspondent interviewed a few Iranians who expressed their revolted corruption and privileges enjoyed by the members of the revolutionary guards and the leaders of the regime. There are people who do not seem to be revolted at all by the Israeli rocket blows in the rich neighborhoods of Tehran, strokes that targeted the homes of the military leaders. « They used our money to build nuclear facilities and the same people who took advantage of this also took money from Israel to become their agents and give them sensitive information. The regime is the victim of their own corruption, » says a 32 -year -old Iranian. « Ayatollahul Khamena is to blame. It is a paranoid ideologue that our lives depend and which ruined our country. The war is because of it, » says a 60-year-old Iranian. An analyst of the British government shows that the only true supporters of the Iranian regime are the ones whose income depends on the regime, and the question is not whether the Ayatollah regime will fall, but when.

« If he does not condemn the actions of Israel, Trump will send a clear message: he does not do the policy of America, but Benjamin Netanyahu. He will report that the US government is weak, devoid of autonomy and servile towards the interests of a foreign government, as well as a government that endangers American lives and interests, » writes UNHD.

Donald Trump did not condemn the actions of Israel, but supported them, together with his advisers and the leader of the Chamber of Representatives. President Trump has shown that the US will not participate directly in the attacks on Iranian nuclear facilities, but American officials have indicated that the US will help Israel to defend themselves in an Iranian response, as they have done so far. According to Axios, the negotiator Trump, has been employed in a real Iran’s deception operation. Two Israeli officials told Axios that Trump and councilors pretended to reject a potential attack on Israel, while in private, they did not oppose. The purpose, the Israelis say was to convince Iran that an attack is not imminent, so that the Iranians on the Black List of Israel did not shine their locations. In addition, Prime Minister Netanyahu’s counselors said Trump tried to stop an Israeli attack in a telephone call from the beginning of the week, but the discussion was, in fact, about US-Israel coordination.