Nathan Shachar: Iran between Trump’s carrot and his whip

The meetings mean that both Donald Trump and Ayatolla Ali Khamenei have had to eat their hat and admit they were wrong: Trump drew 2018 USA from JCPOA, the atomic agreement of the great powers with Iran. It was Iran’s excuse to accelerate its nuclear weapons program, which is now almost completed. Khamenei, who has sworn to never negotiate with Trump, has weighted for his threats.

The negotiations, led by Trump’s Empire Steve Witkoff and Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Arakchi, are accompanied by a hot nerve war. The New York Times reports that the United States and Israel have been close to a week -long attack on Iran, but that this was postponed by Trump to give the conversations a chance. New bomb deliveries from the United States to Israel receive great publicity, although Israel’s weapons import is usually secret.

Iran’s leadership is divided. The Revolutionary Guard, the heaviest power factor after Khamenei, has definitely rejecting the dismantling of the nuclear weapons program. But pragmatic politicians and economists have convinced the highest leader to give diplomacy a chance. Trump tempts with normal trade relations and an end to the sanctions.

Iran has already enriched uranium to build several nuclear weapons. This uranium is of course defended in a number of difficult places. Iran has ballistic missiles that can carry a battle tip to Israel and longer than that.

Much indicates that Iran overestimates the benefit of nuclear weapons. So far, nuclear bombs have not given any magical takeover in the Middle East.

It is well on its way to producing the detonator that triggers the nuclear reaction just before the battle tip lands. At any time, maybe already, Iran will be a decision and a couple of weeks from a bomb. This is Iran’s plan, to become a so -called « threshold state », without a finished nuclear weapon – and without accompanying sanctions – but with the prestige and power projection of nuclear powers.

Much indicates that Iran overestimates the benefit of nuclear weapons. So far, nuclear bombs have not given any magical takeover in the Middle East: the Soviet Union’s nuclear weapons did not deter the Taliban from pushing it out of Afghanistan; Israel’s nuclear weapons did not worry Hamas on October 7, 2023, and US nuclear weapons did not stop al-Qaeda and IS in Iraq. The most dangerous enemy of the Iran regime is its own people, who cannot be stopped with nuclear weapons.

Israel is also divided on the matter. On the one hand, it would of course be safe to have Iran’s nuclear program during strict UN control, which between 2015 and 2018. On the other hand, some strategists believe that Iran will be more dangerous when it is spared from sanctions and can sell its oil in the world market, not as now for under-price to China and India.

The hawks in Israel’s leadership are deeply frustrated by Trump’s veto attacks.

Iran’s regime does not dream of defeating Israel with nuclear weapons, but via Bulvaner – Hamas, Hezbollah, Huthier – in the immediate area of ​​Israel. An Iran freed from sanctions would have far more to invest in such projects.

Iran’s Russian air defense was knocked out by Israel last year. The country’s oil and defense industry is exposed. The hawks in Israel’s leadership are deeply frustrated by Trump’s veto attacks. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu praying Trump to force Iran into retreat not only in nuclear weapons, but also with regard to ballistic weapons and support for terrorist groups.

There is no indication that the United States has such ambitious goals. For Netanyahu, who for years made domestic political use of the Iranian threat, it would be the snoop if drama ended with Trump, and not with him, in the hero role.