Myanmar: Global Shock and Nightmare Estimation for the Dead – How Explained the Size of Destruction

Tens of thousands of people are estimated to be buried in the ruins after the 7.7 -magnitude earthquake hit on Friday (28/3) in Myanmar and shaken neighboring Thailand.

The first official report by the junta of Myanmar speaks of 144 dead and 732 injured, however, there are fears of thousands of victims, as many buildings and infrastructure have collapsed.

7.7 Magnitude Earthquake Hits Mandalay, Myanmar

Multiple Buildings Destroyed in Devastating Quake.#Myanmar #Earthquake #แผ่นดินไหว pic.twitter.com/fgqtbluqjw

– Weather Monitor (@weathermonitors) March 28, 2025

Un poissant #séisme de magnitude 7.7 a frappé lep #MyanmarCausant d’Importants dégâts à mandalay et des secousses ressenties en Thaïlande (où il a provoqué l’effondrement d’un immeble en construction) et en chine. Une Réplique de Magnitude 6.4 A Suivi, Aggravant L’Impact. Les… pic.twitter.com/utdcragjco

– Catastrophesnaturelles.net (@Catnatnet) March 28, 2025

At Least 20 People Have Died After Shwe Ban Shein Mosque in Mandalay Collapsed Today’s Earthquake. Many Are Still Believed to Be Traped Under the Debris,

Built in the 18th Century, Shwe Ban Shein Mosque is a Historic Religious Site and One of the Oldest Mosques in Mandalay. pic.twitter.com/kfitxkr49l

– harrymyolin (@harry_myo) March 28, 2025

Nightmarish estimate for the dead

« We had to do with a big earthquake. An earthquake of 7.7 degrees, in a small focal depth. These are the two main factors that have contributed to such great disasters to such an extensive area, « said Professor of Geology Efthimios Lekkas.

At the same time, he emphasized that « the sensibility of the earthquake is very great, as we are dealing with the guidance of the seismic waves. That is, we have a rift that has an approximately north-south address and the seismic waves-because this rift is horizontal slip-are directed either to the north, that is, to China or to the south, that is, in Thailand. « 

Referring to the seismic profile of the area, Mr Lekkas said that « in the area it is a tectonic plate pansy, but with the specific area of ​​the earthquake, we are dealing with two plates, the Eurasian, which is one of our own plate, Europe and Asia, which

« That is, we have two large slabs, solid formations that move along the rift and have this huge seismic activity. We are at the limit of essentially two large tectonic plates characterized by high seismicity. And the area is also characterized by high seismicity not only in the area, but also the others that are north and south, « he explained.

Mr Lekkas said that in Myanmar, « according to the calculations we do, the death toll may be 50,000 to 100,000. There is a 30% chance of having 50,000 to 100,000. Taking into account geological-geodynamic criteria, structured tissue buildings and the conditions in the area but also according to data collected by American colleagues and some images we have seen really confirm this assessment. « 

As he said, « this assessment may be real, but we will not know it, since the information that is being channeled abroad is very few. »

Mr Lekkas also said that « a very important element is that we have 1,400 kilometers of damage to Bangkok. These damage is located in very high buildings, ie 20, 40, 60 -storey buildings. This situation is fully justified, as seismic waves when they run through this long distance, the periods of the seismic waves are long. This period is coordinated with the buildings which also have a great deal. Therefore, we have complete coordination of tall buildings, so we have localized damage to very high buildings. « 

How will the post -seismic sequence evolve

As to whether there will be a rich post -earthquake activity, Mr Lekkas explained that « there must be an earthquake of 7.2 degrees to say that we are in a phase of expansion, but I appreciate that because it is a horizontal slip rift that moves to the south and to the south and to the south and to the south and to the north, Indonesia, in the band and in Thailand of course. « 

Meanwhile, the reaction of the international community and international aid organizations is immediate, with the World Health Organization (WHO) announcing that it has activated the emergency management system and that its Dubai Center for Dubai has been mobilized to prepare them.

How tectonic forces led to the deceased

The 55 million inhabitants, one of the most earthquakes on the planet, is on the threshold of two tectonic plates.

The earthquake was probably the largest hitting mainland Myanmar in the last 75 years

« The limit of the Indian and Eurasian plaque runs the country in the middle from the north to south, » Joanna Fere Walker, a seismologist at the University College in London, told Reuters.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RNRNA5IXQWE

The two plates are rubbed horizontally with each other as they move at different speeds. Friction causes soil deformations that accumulate energy. When the deformation exceeds the breaking point, the energy ends with an earthquake.

In general, however, earthquakes in such zones are less powerful than those recorded in the so -called underpin zones, where a tectonic plate sinks beneath the other.

However, they can reach 7 or 8 degrees. So strong vibrations are rare in Myanmar.

Earthquakes over 6 degrees in Myanmar from 1900 until today. Yellow lines show geological cracks, with red appears the rift that gave Friday vibration (Reuters with USGS data)

Sagaing has been hit by several earthquakes in recent years, such as the 6.8 -magnitude vibration that caused 26 deaths and dozens of injuries in 2012.

But Friday’s earthquake was « probably the biggest » to hit the mainland Myanmar over the last 75 years, Bill McGuire of University College said.

The damage was high due to the small 10km focal depth, said Roger Mouson of the British Geological Services BGS.

« The thrust waves were not relieved as they climbed the earthquake on the surface. The buildings accepted all the power of jerk, ”he explained.

« It is important, however, not to focus on the focus, since the seismic waves do not spread radially from the focus – they are transmitted from the entire rift line, » he added.

According to an estimate of the USGS Geological Survey program, the report may range between 10 and 100 thousand dead, while financial damage may reach 70% of Myanmar’s GDP.

Since earthquakes in the area are not frequent, the buildings are unlikely to be built with quite strict standards to withstand such a blow.