Moscow wants Washington to recognize the Russian sphere of influence, so that it can go its own way

The Kremlin says it is willing to negotiate directly with KYIV about a ceasefire. It is one of the advances that Moscow did since the American Minister of Foreign Affairs Marco Rubio last Friday said that the US is withdrawing from the peace process if there is no rapid progress.

Russian President Vladimir Putin made his statement on Monday evening against a political reporter of the Staatskanaal. Previously, Moscow immediately refused to negotiate Kyiv.

In defense of this position, Moscow always screened the decree of the Ukrainian President Zensky from October 2022, in which he stated that negotiation with Putin is ‘impossible’. When asked about peace negotiations, Kremlin spokesperson Dmitri Peskov answered with finger methods: « We must not forget that it is legally forbidden to negotiate for the President of Ukraine. »

The Ukrainian decision was a response to the Russian presidential decree on the annexation of four Ukrainian regions – that none of all have been conquered completely militarily. Kyiv always kept the door open for negotiations with Russia – without Putin.

Putin’s statement therefore seems to be a display of benevolence in the first place, intended to keep the US there. And it is just one of the instruments in the Russian negotiating box.

Another instrument is that of one step forward and then shuffling back. This could be seen when the Kremlin spokesperson warned against Haasterwerk on Tuesday. Peskov emphasized that the peace process is so complex « that it is not worthwhile to hang a strict period on it. »

Sweeteners

The longer the negotiations last, the more benefit Russia can pull out – is the analysis of many experts. The Kremlin would have ordered civil servants and experts to look for ‘stimuli’ to keep the Trump government interested, Moscow’s insiders report to The Moscow Times. « The goal is to give the relationship with the US a new shape – that is not easy – while we keep the dialogue over Ukraine alive, » said a Russian diplomat.

In particular in economic cooperation, Russia seeks opportunities – where businessman Trump Belang attaches his political promise: « Make America Rich Again ». What the Moscow really matters is that Washington recognizes Russia’s sphere of influence, so that it can take its course internationally.

A second important goal for Moscow is the lifting of sanctions – such as those against the Russian aviation industry. Foreign Foreign Aerieve of Russian airlines are increasingly being kept up with ‘counterfeit parts’.

As sweet holders, Russia can offer rare earth metals, energy or space for a Trump Tower in Moscow. The American envoy Steve Witkoff was charmed by this Russian approach a week ago, after a conversation with Putin. « I see the possibility of reforming the Russian-American relationship through a number of very attractive commercial opportunities, » he said afterwards.

Ukraine also faces the challenge of keeping the US involved. Rubios warning that the peace process should quickly show progression was perhaps even more focused on Ukraine. Last week the Trump government would have submitted a draft-peace file to KYIV.

The Wall Street Journal received a copy of this confidential document. The US proposes, among other things, to recognize the Russian annexation of Crimea, to freeze the conflict along the current front line, and to keep Ukraine outside of NATO. According to that newspaper, it was about « a series of possibilities » that Ukraine got « for discussion and feedback. »

Although KYIV acknowledges that the return of the occupied territories is not a soldier, Ukraine does not yet want to make a legal distance to the occupied territories. This is not just about territory: in the occupied areas there is systematic torture, repression and violence against the Ukrainian civilian population. Many citizens have ‘disappeared’ after they came into contact with the Russian occupiers.

Peace interviews London

On Wednesday, the Ukrainian allies France, United Kingdom and the US will come together in London. The American minister Rubio and special envoys Witkoff and Keith Kellogg are planning to attend the meeting.

The main goal for Ukraine is a sustainable peace – which means that KYIV security guarantees wants a file to be maintained.

Another important point for Ukraine is the management of the occupied nuclear power plant in the southern province of Zaporizja. This largest nuclear power plant in Europe supplied a significant part of the flow of Ukraine before the war. The central occupied in 2022.

After that, several times a nuclear disaster – due to mismanagement of the Russian occupier, power outages, combat actions and explosions on the site of the central and the drying of the cooling water reservoir. For safety reasons, the plant is set to a ‘watch position’ and is currently not generating any electricity.

Ukraine naturally wants that stable and cheap electricity back, and preferably also the management of the plant. The US would have proposed to take over the management and a ‘neutral zone’ to set the site.

Easter stock

On Saturday evening, Russian President Vladimir Putin unilaterally announced a 30 -hour ‘Easter file’. KYIV accepted with the wording that the Russian behavior will be ‘mirrored’ and surpassed it with a counter -proposal: no air strikes on cities and citizen objects for 30 days. Moscow did not respond to that. An earlier Ukrainian proposal for an unconditional cease-fire of one month was also put aside.

The Easter file did not keep it. KYIV had more than 2,900 attacks along the front lines – in particular on the besieged city of Pokrovsk and northeast of Kyiv, in Koersk and Soemy. It mainly concerned artillery shoots, but also more than a hundred heavier attacks with rockets and nearly a thousand drone attacks.

Yet President Volodyymyr Zensky was not dissatisfied: no major rocket attacks or kamikazedrone attacks were performed on the Ukrainian cities on Sunday. Russia usually leaves almost no day passing without such an attack.

« Now, after Easter, the whole world can clearly see the problem. The real reason that the hostilities will continue, » said Zensky on his telegram canal on Monday. According to him, the day without air alarms proves that the war is possible, « as soon as Russia chooses to kill less. (…) The order to cease the hostilities must come from Moscow. »

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