Mosbirzhi index again fell below 2700 points: the causes of the fall and forecasts
Moscow Exchange Index (MoEx: MoEx) For the first time since the beginning of April, he fell below the level of 2700 points. A decrease in stock indicators has been going on for two weeks, during which time it has lost almost 8%. In recent days, the main negative factor for the Russian market is geopolitics, in particular aggressive statements of foreign leaders. In addition, the pressure is strengthened by the ruble and the refusal of some large issuers to pay dividends.
At the auction on May 26, the Moscow Exchange index for the first one and a half months dropped below 2700 points. According to the results of the main session, he settled at the mark of 2699.94 points, losing 2.5%per day. The almost continuous decrease in the stock indicator has been going on for two weeks, during which time it has lost almost 8%. The most liquid Russian actions lost 1.7–4.8%in price. However, the activity of investors remains low. The volume of trading shares from the IMOEX index amounted to a little more than 48 billion rubles. Moreover, from the beginning of the month it did not rise above 100 billion rubles, while in April it regularly exceeded this level.
Market participants call geopolitics the main negative factor.
In particular, the reason for the decrease in the index on May 26 was two events: US President Donald Trump once again expressed dissatisfaction with the actions of Russian President Vladimir Putin in relation to the resolution of the Ukrainian conflict. In addition, the German media published a statement by the Chancellor of Germany Friedrich Merets on the removal of Britain, France, Germany and the United States for the supply of long -range weapons, which can be used in the Russian Federation. Vasily Karpunin, the head of the Alfa-investment analytics, believes that all this forces investors to revise the risks of new possible sanctions, as well as the likelihood of an imminent normalization of relations between Russia and Western countries. “I do not exclude that many who have made a bet around the improvement of geopolitics are now selling shares,” said Ivan Efanov, an analyst with investment companies of the Broker.
In addition, affecting the falling market of Russian shares, is the disappointment of investors due to the refusal of issuers of a wide range of industries from the payment of dividends from profit for 2024. In addition to Gazprom, metallurgical (MMK, NLMK, Severstal), energy (Rosseti, Rosseti South), machine -building (KAMAZ), mining (Alrosa, Seligdar), transport (osocomflot), high -tech (“Posit group”), as well as developers (“Aircraft”, peaks, peaks) were refused. and retailers (Magnit, Lenta). Earlier, most of them paid dividends, and some issuers, in particular Severstal, did this once a quarter. As the investment strategist “VTB My Investments” Stanislav Kleshchev explains, companies “press high interest rates on the companies, which forces issuers to revise dividend plans”. According to the director of the analytical department of the Region BC Valery Weisberg, « after the fixation of the registers of issuers, whose shareholders approved payments, the market will sag even deeper. »
Vasily Karpunin notes that the pressure on the Russian stock market also has the continuing strengthening of the ruble.
“This has a negative impact on exporters and raw materials, which make up 60% of the Moscow Exchange index,” the expert notes. In the over -the -way market, the dollar exchange rate remains below 80 rubles./$, Near a two -year minimum. Since the beginning of the year, the American currency has fallen in price by 24%.
Experts give a pessimistic forecast regarding the further dynamics of the index. Stanislav Kleshchev believes that the IMOEX index will continue to move to 2600 points, Ivan Efanov believes that by the end of the month the index will be in the range of 2560–2750 points. One of the drivers to restore the index “could be a weakening of the ruble or a clear softening of the Rhetoric of the Central Bank at the meeting on June 6,” said Vasily Karpunin. However, as Mr. Kleshchev points out, “if the market does not receive the expected signal about the softening of the Central Bank, we do not exclude the update of the annual minimum” according to the index of the Moscow Exchange.
