More than half of large retailers can fix the loss in 2025
The massive transition of consumers to the savings model and the growth of competition negatively affect the financial results of non -food retail. Half of the largest networks this year can fix a loss, and for part its size will grow several times. The tendency will lead to an increase in vacancies in traders if the networks begin to massively close unprofitable stores.
In 2025, approximately half of the largest non-food retailers can record a loss, predicts the vice-president of the Russian Torg Centers (STC) Alexei Blumkin. The head of the lease of retail space Core.xp Nadezhda Tsvetkova calls the script realistic. This, according to her, is indicated by the disastrous results of the first quarter: many retailers recorded a decrease in sales by 30–35%.
According to the estimates of the “OFD platform”, the number of purchases of clothing and shoes in January -March decreased by 12% year by the year. The average check grew by only 3%, to 3.4 thousand rubles. This is significantly inferior to annual inflation, which amounted to 10.3%in March, according to Rosstat. The head of the IBC Real Estate trading real estate directions, Vladimir, says that the Fashion market is experiencing an adaptation that can cause temporary financial difficulties.
The StC believes that the financial results of large networks this year will be worse than in the past.
The main legal entity of the Kari shoe network Kari LLC can get a net loss of 6.4 billion rubles. This is multiple of the 2024 indicator – 329 million rubles. The loss of Sportmaster can increase from 1.5 billion to 12.2 billion rubles, the Young Network – from 372 million to 1.4 billion rubles, “Girlfriends” – from 678 million to 1.7 billion rubles.
The profitable retailers this year, according to Mr. Blumkin, can become unprofitable or show a decrease in income. Jurlisos HOFF (LLC « Home Interior ») can go minus by 1.3 billion rubles. against profit in the amount of 191 million rubles. in 2024. OSTIN (OSTIN LLC) can receive a pure loss of 458 million rubles. (In 2024, the network earned 2.6 billion rubles). Net profit Familia (Maxim Group LLC) can be reduced from 1.9 billion rubles. In 2024 to 11 million rubles. in 2025.
The general director of the girlfriend’s network Stanislav Melinger does not agree with the forecast for his company. But he admits that the conjuncture for many retailers this year will be worse than in the past. HOFF says that business is developing within the framework of planned efficiency, and in 2024 the growth of net profits slowed down due to objective factors affecting the entire retail. In the first quarter of 2025, the net profit of the network amounted to 169 million rubles. Data for the same period last year did not bring to HOFF. The remaining Kommersant networks did not answer.
Reducing the demand for clothes and shoes is a long -term trend that was traced the whole last year in the context of growing competition and weather vibrations (see “Kommersant” dated September 10, 2024). Diy-vertheilers of complexity arose due to the fall in the sales of housing and increase the cost of repair work (See “Kommersant” from April 16). According to Focus Technologies, Mall Index (reflects the number of visitors per 1 thousand square meters of retail space) of clothing and shoes in the first quarter of this year, it decreased by 7% year, household goods and repair – 11%. On average, the market drop was 4%.
4 percent
It was a reduction in the number of visitors to the trade centers according to the results of the first quarter of 2025 compared to the same period last year.
The head of the Department of Trade Real Estate CMWP Zulfiya Shilyaeva connects a negative trend with the transfer of the population to the savings model of consumption: people keep money on deposits, refusing to purchases. According to the Central Bank, the amount of citizens in bank deposits on April 1, 2025 reached 57.9 trillion rubles. The second factor, Mrs. Shilyaeva calls an active lasting for demand to the online channel, which is traditionally characterized for business with higher competition. According to Infoline, in 2024 the online trade market increased by 37% year by year, to 11.3 trillion rubles.
The poor financial results of large non -food networks can negatively affect the business of business owners, where they form the main pool of tenants. Mr. Blumkin does not exclude that retailers will strive to agree with the tenants to reduce bets or, in the worst case, close stores. This can contribute to the growth of vacancies. According to Nikoliers, the share of free space in Moscow Torgents in the first quarter was 7.4%, increasing by 1 percentage point a year by the year. The trend will remain with the mass closing of unprofitable stores, Ms. Tsvetkova believes.
