Moody's could worsen the rating of Romania
The Moody's Financial Evaluation Agency could change Romania's rating prospect to negative at the end of this week, according to a report of Erste Group Research. This possibility is analyzed in the context of rating reviews that will be announced on Friday after the market closes for several European states, including Romania.
« On Friday, after the market closes, we have rating reviews for Croatia (Fitch and S&P), Poland (Fitch) and Romania (Moody's). Only for Romania we see the possibility of changing the perspective, from stable to negative. However, this should have a limited impact on markets, because Fitch and P have already assigned negative prospects, ”the Erste Group Research analysis shows.
Changing the perspective could have implications for investors trust in the Romanian economy, but analysts point out that the impact could be limited, given the decisions already made by Fitch and S&P global. In December last year, Fitch changed the perspective of Romania from stable to negative, and in January 2025 S&P Global took a similar measure.
The Minister of Finance declared last month that Romania's rating will depend, to a large extent, on the country's ability to respect its financial commitments. In a macroeconomic context marked by pressure on the state budget and an estimated budget deficit at 7% of GDP for 2025, the authorities are trying to maintain Romania in the category of countries recommended to investors. At the beginning of February, the Minister of Finance reiterated that Romania will not be relegated to the Junk category this year, emphasizing the Government's commitment to respect the assumed budgetary targets.
