Michael Winiarski: Tusk may fall into confidence voting
On paper, it was Rafal Trzaskowski, Warsaw’s mayor, who was the loser of the president when he was defeated last Sunday by Karol Nawrocki by 51 percent against 49. But the real loser was Donald Tusk and his coalition government.
Tusk had no bad starting point: In October 2023, just a year and a half ago, he had set a point for eight years rule under the national conservative party law and justice (PIS). He came to power with a series of election promises in the luggage; He promised to restore an independent judicial system that PIS has taken control, to release the public service media from political governance and to relieve the strict ban on abortion.
For several reasons, including PIS supported President Andrzej Duda stopped the reforms with his veto, several of the election promises remained unfulfilled.
Over time, support for his democratic coalition fell. Prior to the presidential election, Tusk’s government was supported by only 32 percent of voters and 44 percent were opponents. Tusk himself was even more unpopular: 53 percent of Polish voters had a negative view of him.
These figures reflected in the presidential election. Combined with the fact that the opinion has turned to the right, the election result did not come as a major surprise.
That tusk in that situation announces a vote of trust can be seen as a chance. But he may not have much for choice. The relatively young President Nawrocki, who will take over on August 6, can assert a strong popular mandate, and it is important for the much older tusk to recycle a kind of legitimation for his government.
Just ten days ago, the country was well on its way to restoring its good reputation and establishing itself as one of Europe’s leadership.
If Tusk survives the vote of confidence, it is only the first step. Then he also has to manage to rule in an effective way, where Nawrocki will certainly stop different reforms with his veto.
Another question is whether the coalition government is able to hold together until the next parliamentary elections, which is autumn 2027. If the tusk falls, the choice will be earlier. One hint of how it goes in that case is the distribution of votes in the first round of the president on May 18. Then a total of 52 percent went to three candidates on the right – Nawrocki, Slawomir Mentzen from the more extreme confederation, and the even more extreme Grzegorz Braun – while Trzaskowski and the other candidates received 45 percent,
The history of Poland is full of self -goals. Just ten days ago, the country was well on its way to restoring its good reputation and establishing itself as one of Europe’s leadership.
But after the presidential election, much of it is ruined, since the Poles gave the presidential post to Nawrocki, a man without previous political experience and with a story as a violent football hooligan with strange ties to the criminal world. Among other things, he has been accused of delivering prostitutes to guests at the Grand Hotel in the coastal city of Sopot (something he has denied).
Nawrocki is a right -wing nationalist with a worldview that is in many ways similar to Viktor Orbáns and Donald Trumps – minus the two gentlemen’s admiration for Vladimir Putin. Poland’s role as an important partner to France, the United Kingdom and Germany in « The Cealition of the Willing » in support of Ukraine is not over, but is likely to be weakened.
In his first interview after the election victory, Nawrocki said that « Russia is the biggest threat in our region ». But he added that he at the moment opposes that Ukraine becomes a member of the EU.
Such a setting is not The best for Poland’s safety in a position when Putin escapes the war and the bomb campaign against the neighboring country.
In an attempt to see the situation from the bright side, Foreign Minister Radoslaw Sikorski said in an interview with Politico that a right -wing populist head of state does not mean that Poland will withdraw its support to Ukraine: « Nawrocki is a defense friend that agrees that Russia must be held back ».
In domestic politics, it is nevertheless likely that Tusk’s plans to restore the Polish rule of law cannot be realized even if he can handle Wednesday’s vote. It can be considered sure that Nawrocki will stop all attempts in that direction with his right of veto when he takes over the presidential post from Andrzej Duda in August.
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