Michael Winiarski: Putin has no interest in stopping the Conquest War

By this time, it should be clear that Russia will not agree to any peace solution in Ukraine. Putin and his closest co -workers have stopped pretending that they are interested in something other than Total Ukrainian submission.

Nevertheless, it is unclear how far this reality has penetrated to those who decide politics in Europe, and what practical consequences it will have. EU leaders have not changed their official formula to support Ukraine’s struggle for survival « as long as required ». Throughout the large -scale war, this has meant that the democracies of the Western world assisted the government in Kiev with money, political backing and military support.

But as war -weary and frustrated Ukrainians often emphasize: West’s support has been just great for Ukraine not to lose, but not enough for Ukraine to win.

Since Trump moved in In the White House, few count the United States to what used to be called « West ». Here is rather the question of how much of Ukraine that Trump is ready to give Putin in his quest for peace at all costs. The US president has been on the side of his Russian colleague throughout the war, and it is not changed by Trump being attacking impatience when it has been found that the war is not so easy to end.

Trump has not re -examined his basic view of Russia and the war.

On Sunday, after the war’s most deadly Russian robot and drone attacks against cities all over Ukraine, Trump wrote that Putin, whom he believes he has good relationships with, has gone crazy: « He sends rockets against cities and kills people, I don’t like that at all ».

Suddenly he questioned Putin’s willingness to peace and warned of new sanctions against Russia. A few days later, Trump said Putin « playing with the fire ». But he did not comment that Putin ignored his old demand for a 30 -day ceasefire.

Although Trump has understood that the Kremlin’s goal is to submit all of Ukraine, he does not act from the fact that Putin is the obstacle to peace. But he is more doubtful. According to media data, Trump should have told European leaders that Putin does not want to end the war, because he thinks he will win it.

As long as Trump’s reactions stop at word masses, Putin does not have to be stressed.

With Trump’s unfulfilled election promise If a quick end to the war, the next step may be that he withdraws from the mediation attempts and leaves to the warring parties and Europe to sort out the conflict. He was in that last Sunday, when he wrote: « It’s Zelenskyjs, Putins and Biden’s war, not Trumps ».

Although Trump is unpredictable, Moscow leaders do not have to worry too much. They think they know where they have him. It was clearly expressed in an article by the Kremlin related analyst Fjodor Lukjanov, who this week wrote in the newspaper Kommersant:

« Trump gradually unites with Russia’s proposed framework for a direct dialogue between Moscow and Kiev, with the United States as an arbitrator and guarantor, mainly for Ukraine’s reliability. Western Europe is excluded from this scenario, and is not seen as a neutral but as a destructive actor ».

Lukjanov notes that the common front between Kiev, Brussels and Washington, who coordinated the pressure against Moscow and set the conditions for the talks, no longer exist. Trump is uninterested in that arrangement and prioritizes what it looks like before the result, which directly benefits Moscow.

Jubilated the Kremlin too soon? Europe has certainly been offered by the White House, but an insight is beginning to gain that Putin’s war will be long -lasting. German Chancellor Friedrich Merz has stated that Putin sees every proposal for a ceasefire as a ruling of weakness, and that « we must be prepared that this war will be longer than any of us would like or be able to imagine ».

The conclusions that Merz draws are different from Trumps. Germany, together with the United Kingdom and France, and possibly also a reluctant US, will abolish the restrictions for Ukraine to attack goals in Russia with long -distance robots. However, Merz has given contradictory message on the issue of providing Ukraine with advanced German-Swedish cruise robots of the Taurus type.

This turnaround caused the Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov to go to a violent attack on Germany and the EU. They have, he believes, have not learned from history, by « once again gathering under the Nazi flag to add to Russia a strategic defeat ».

Europe’s measures indicate an insight that the threat from Russia will remain in the long term, no matter how the war in Ukraine ends. There are assessors who believe that an end to the war in Ukraine gives Russia the opportunity to free up military resources that threaten the Baltic and other countries in the immediate area.

Traditionally, the Kremlin does not care about human life, nor about own

More than three years of intense battles on The ground and in the air have struggled hard on Russia’s armed forces and on the country’s economy. There is no safe information on losses, but according to Ukrainian and Western data, at least half a million Russian soldiers have been killed or injured.

Traditionally, the Kremlin does not care about human life, nor about their own. Russia has been able to hold about 600,000 men at the war front in Ukraine throughout the full -scale war. This has been done without having to resort to a partial mobilization of the kind that was carried out in September 2022 and which proved to be politically risky.

The supply of crew to the Russian armed forces has instead been secured by the remnant of the Soviet mass army to a large extent being transformed into a lego army. The first step was taken with the private Wagner union that Yevgenij Prigozjin led, before he revolted and then liquidated by the Kremlin in the summer of 2023. Nowadays, the regular armed forces are based on what experts call for « hidden mobilization »: Men from penalty colonies and ethnic minorities are attracted to bonus with bonus with bonus with bonus with bonus with bonus.

A large part of Russia’s tanks are eliminated, but the Russian war industry has stepped up production, mainly by technically advanced drones. The Russian economy has been put on war foot. Meanwhile, the Russian army continues to conquer Ukrainian soil and put increasing parts of Ukraine in ruins. With the help of Iran, China and North Korea, Putin expects Ukraine’s and West’s resistance to be worn down. A Russian summer offensive is said to be on the way. Putin gives the appearance of wanting to negotiate, while obstructing every peace solution.

Should Putin get what he wants? It is largely decided if the EU and the United States go from word to action.